就在周四！黄金白银将迎新年“第一劫”：数十亿美元抛单已在路上

智通财经网01-04

在经历了去年一年创纪录的上涨之后，本周四(1月8日)，白银和黄金即将迎来新年的“第一道坎”：彭博商品指数重新加权所带来的抛售压力。黄金白银将迎新年“第一劫”去年，贵金属价格大幅上涨，现货白银和现货黄金分别上涨了约148%和约65%，创下了自1979年以来的最大年度涨幅，甚至超过了像英伟达、微软和苹果这样的科技巨头的股价涨幅。然而，摩根大通警告称，彭博商品指数的年度权重再平衡即将到来，这可能会抑制...

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Gold and silver will welcome the \"first robbery\" of the New Year: billions of dollars in selling orders are on the way","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"159831":1.5,"159934":0.6,"518880":0.6,"QOmain":1.5,"GLD":0.6,"IAU":0.6,"1OZmain":1.5,"DUST":0.6,"SGCmain":0.6,"QImain":1.5,"SGUmain":0.6,"MGCmain":1.5,"SImain":1.5,"GDX":0.6,"NUGT":0.6,"GCmain":1.5},"content_text":"在经历了去年一年创纪录的上涨之后，本周四(1月8日)，白银和黄金即将迎来新年的“第一道坎”：彭博商品指数重新加权所带来的抛售压力。黄金白银将迎新年“第一劫”去年，贵金属价格大幅上涨，现货白银和现货黄金分别上涨了约148%和约65%，创下了自1979年以来的最大年度涨幅，甚至超过了像英伟达、微软和苹果这样的科技巨头的股价涨幅。然而，摩根大通警告称，彭博商品指数的年度权重再平衡即将到来，这可能会抑制贵金属近期的波动。彭博商品指数作为一篮子大宗商品的基准指数，约1090亿美元的资金追踪该指数。从1月8日至1月14日期间，该指数将进行权重再平衡。摩根大通分析师格雷戈里·谢勒(Gregory Shearer)此前已经警告称，这可能会导致约38亿美元白银和47亿美元黄金的抛售。其他分析师预计的抛售规模更大。道明证券高级商品策略师丹尼尔·加利(Daniel  Ghali)预计，从1月8日开始的再平衡期间，可能会有约60亿美元的黄金期货被抛售。此外，目前，白银在该指数中的占比为9%，而其2026年的目标权重略低于4%。以此计算，在1月8日至14日期间，预计有近50亿美元的白银持仓被抛售。假期效应或放大价格波动加利表示：“我们预计未来两周，芝加哥商品交易所(CME)白银市场的总未平仓合约量的13%将被抛售，从而导致白银价格大幅下跌。”他还补充说，由于市场在元旦假期后的流动性降低，价格波动可能会加剧。摩根大通的分析师此前在12月已经警告称：“鉴于整体市场流动性较低，此次规模更大的白银抛售仍有可能对白银价格造成更大的冲击，这是我们在1月需要密切关注的问题。”他们当时还指出，“鉴于今年(2025年)贵金属价格表现极为出色，当前的持仓量和价格表明，约11000手(占总未平仓合约的3%)的COMEX黄金和约13000手(占总未平仓合约的9%)的COMEX银价可能会被抛售，以达到2026年的目标持仓量。”本文转载自财联社，智通财经编辑：陈雯芳。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2600041681","isCrawlerRequest":true}