碳酸锂主力合约触及跌停，短期走势怎么看？

祖母爱吃鱼2025-12-29

碳酸锂主力合约触及跌停，跌幅8.99%，现报117400元/吨。12月24日晚间，广期所发布公告，自12月26日交易时起，调整碳酸锂期货部分合约交易指令每次最小开仓下单数量及单日开仓交易限额。同时，针对连续三个涨停板的铂期货主力合约，广期所同步实施提保扩板等风控措施。业内人士指出，从碳酸锂到铂期货，交易所近期密集出台风控举措，释放出明确监管信号——在行情快速演绎、资金高度集中阶段，通过制度性“降温...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2595903202?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-12-29 14:54","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2595903202","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"碳酸锂主力合约触及跌停，短期走势怎么看？","media":"祖母爱吃鱼","content":"<div>\n<p>碳酸锂主力合约触及跌停，跌幅8.99%，现报117400元/吨。12月24日晚间，广期所发布公告，自12月26日交易时起，调整碳酸锂期货部分合约交易指令每次最小开仓下单数量及单日开仓交易限额。同时，针对连续三个涨停板的铂期货主力合约，广期所同步实施提保扩板等风控措施。业内人士指出，从碳酸锂到铂期货，交易所近期密集出台风控举措，释放出明确监管信号——在行情快速演绎、资金高度集中阶段，通过制度性“降温...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251229145129a484e754&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>碳酸锂主力合约触及跌停，短期走势怎么看？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n碳酸锂主力合约触及跌停，短期走势怎么看？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-29 14:54 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251229145129a484e754&s=b><strong>祖母爱吃鱼</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>碳酸锂主力合约触及跌停，跌幅8.99%，现报117400元/吨。12月24日晚间，广期所发布公告，自12月26日交易时起，调整碳酸锂期货部分合约交易指令每次最小开仓下单数量及单日开仓交易限额。同时，针对连续三个涨停板的铂期货主力合约，广期所同步实施提保扩板等风控措施。业内人士指出，从碳酸锂到铂期货，交易所近期密集出台风控举措，释放出明确监管信号——在行情快速演绎、资金高度集中阶段，通过制度性“降温...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251229145129a484e754&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1961090484.USD","symbol_name":"ALLIANZ ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251229145129a484e754&s=b","article_id":"2595903202","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251229145129a484e754&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2595903202","pubTimestamp":1766991265,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"碳酸锂主力合约触及跌停，跌幅8.99%，现报117400元/吨。12月24日晚间，广期所发布公告，自12月26日交易时起，调整碳酸锂期货部分合约交易指令每次最小开仓下单数量及单日开仓交易限额。申银万国期货指出，碳酸锂主力合约继续创新高，近日涨幅较大，谨慎参与。总的来说，当前碳酸锂市场正处在短期供需紧平衡和长期供给宽松的交叉点，这波反弹是成本、供给约束和资金推动的共同结果。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"81211":"比亚迪股份-R","LU1961090484.USD":"ALLIANZ ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1303224171.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU0348825331.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","LU0871576103.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (HKD) ACC","LU1794554557.SGD":"Allianz All China Equity AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0865486749.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Equity Income AS SGD-H","002240":"盛新锂能","LU0469268626.HKD":"AB FCP I-ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY PTF(AD","LU0823414551.USD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"C\" (USD) INC","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2476274720.SGD":"ALLIANZ CHINA FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES \"AT\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0516422440.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","HYDD.SI":"BYD HK SDR 10to1","BK1539":"汽车股","SG9999001226.SGD":"UNITED SUSTAINABLE ASIA TOP 50 \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0259732245.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS DRAGON PEACOCK A","LU0043850808.USD":"HSBC GIF ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU1328277881.USD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH FUND \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU2449936058.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE ASIA EQUITY \"AA\" (SGD) ACC","LU0819123356.HKD":"HSBC GIF MANAGED SOLUTIONS ASIA FOCUSED GROWTH \"AC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0823426308.USD":"法巴中国股票基金","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK1119":"汽车制造商","LU0314109678.HKD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH \"AA\" (HKD) INC","LU0516422366.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Focus Equities A Acc SGD","LU0828238088.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF GLBL EMGNG MKT OPPS \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1023057109.AUD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0449509016.USD":"HSBC GIF BRIC EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU0326950275.SGD":"Schroder ISF China Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 SGD","LU0254981946.USD":"HSBC GIF BRIC MARKETS EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU0594300179.USD":"FIDELITY CHINA CONSUMER \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0417516902.SGD":"Allianz China Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU1868837565.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES \"1\" (USD) ACC","LU2506951792.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (HKDHDG)       ACC","LU0516423091.SGD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU2476274308.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0164865239.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU0084288322.USD":"Natixis Asia Equity RD USD","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0143863784.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"DU\" (USD) ACC","SG9999006514.SGD":"United Asia Consumer Fund SGD","LU0165289439.USD":"HSBC GIF ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"AC\" ACC","002594":"比亚迪","LU1813983027.USD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH \"AA\" (USD) INC","SG9999015978.USD":"利安颠覆性创新基金A","LU0650527681.SGD":"Fidelity China Consumer A-SGD","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","BK1522":"燃料电池","LU0289960550.SGD":"AB FCP I - GLOBAL EQUITY BLEND PORTFOLIO 'A' (SGD) ACC","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2399975544.HKD":"ALLIANZ ALL CHINA EQUITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BYDDY":"比亚迪ADR","LU0531970944.HKD":"HSBC GIF BRIC EQUITY \"AC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0164872284.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0823426480.USD":"法巴中国股票经典Dis","LU0348827113.USD":"ALLIANZ RCM CHINA \"AT\" ACC","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU0143863198.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0588545904.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Equity Income ASDM SGD","LU1880383366.USD":"东方汇理中国股票基金 A2 (C)","LU0054450605.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EMERGING MARKTS EQ \"AD\" INC","SG9999014674.SGD":"Nikko AM All China Equity A SGD","LU0359202008.SGD":"Blackrock China Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0588545730.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIAN EQUITY INCOME \"ADM\" (USD) INC","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1880383440.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS CHINA EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU0540923850.HKD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) INC","SG9999002463.SGD":"LionGlobal China Growth SGD","BK1509":"特斯拉概念股","LU1808992512.USD":"AB ALL CHINA EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0634319403.HKD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK1610":"ETF&股票定投概念","SG9999006597.SGD":"United China-India Dynamic Growth SGD","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","LU2360107325.USD":"BGF FUTURE OF TRANSPORT \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0588545490.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Equity Income AS SGD","LU2097828557.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0531971595.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","LU2097828631.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC","LU2778985437.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES \"A\" (USD) INC","01772":"赣锋锂业","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU2097828714.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"BAZ\" (EUR) ACC","LU0561508036.HKD":"ALLIANZ CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0229945570.USD":"TEMPLETON BRIC \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2097828805.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A-AZ\" (USD) ACC","LU0039217434.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU0315178854.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIAN EQUITY INCOME \"A\" ACC","LU0516423174.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0516422952.EUR":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"I\" (EUR) ACC","01211":"比亚迪股份","LU0509642566.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC AV","LU2097828474.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC A","LU0307460666.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0269904917.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0588546209.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China Equity Fund AS SGD","LU1188198961.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF CHINA OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) INC QV","LU0856984785.SGD":"HSBC GIF MANAGED SOLUTIONS ASIA FOCUSED GROWTH \"ACH\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0449515922.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"PC\" (USD)ACC","LU0359201612.USD":"贝莱德中国基金A2","BK1540":"电池","LU2153592121.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Emerging Markets Sustainable Development Equity A Acc USD","LU1720050803.USD":"安联全方位中国股票基金","LU0605514214.HKD":"FIDELITY CHINA CONSUMER \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0348805143.USD":"ALLIANZ ENHANCED ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU0214875030.USD":"HSBC GIF BRIC EQUITY \"M2C\" (USD) ACC","LU2357125470.USD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CLASSIC RH\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU1719994722.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2294711713.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"C\" (HKD) ACC","LU1770034418.SGD":"ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2348774022.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Emerging Markets Sustainable Development Equity A Acc SGD-H","LU2039709279.SGD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK1582":"深圳本地概念股","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0823038988.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS ASIA EQUITY FOCUS  \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK1594":"碳中和概念股","LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0463099449.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF CHINA OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0823039010.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS ASIA EQUITY FOCUS  \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU0359201885.HKD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU0211977185.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0543330566.HKD":"TEMPLETON BRIC \"A\" (HKD) ACC","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","LU0593848301.USD":"未来资产亚洲卓越消费股票基金A","LU0417516738.SGD":"Allianz Hong Kong Equity AT Acc SGD","LU1868838027.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES \"8\" (USD) ACC","LU0348735423.USD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","002460":"赣锋锂业","LU0244354667.USD":"SCHRODER ISF CHINA OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" ACC","LU1861214812.USD":"Blackrock Future of Transport A2 USD","LU1251922891.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1861219969.SGD":"Blackrock Future of Transport A2 SGD-H","LU0594300419.USD":"富达中国消费基金A","LU0819121731.USD":"HSBC GIF MANAGED SOLUTIONS ASIA FOCUSED GROWTH \"AC\" (USD) ACC","SG9999002828.SGD":"Eastspring Investments Unit Trusts - Dragon Peacock A SGD","LU0505663152.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - FUTURE MINERALS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1868837722.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES \"2\" (USD) ACC"},"translate_title":"The main contract of lithium carbonate hit the daily limit, what do you think of the short-term trend?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"81211":0.6,"002460":1.64,"002240":1.61,"01211":0.9,"002594":1.57,"01772":1.64,"HYDD.SI":0.6,"BYDDY":1.57},"content_text":"碳酸锂主力合约触及跌停，跌幅8.99%，现报117400元/吨。12月24日晚间，广期所发布公告，自12月26日交易时起，调整碳酸锂期货部分合约交易指令每次最小开仓下单数量及单日开仓交易限额。同时，针对连续三个涨停板的铂期货主力合约，广期所同步实施提保扩板等风控措施。业内人士指出，从碳酸锂到铂期货，交易所近期密集出台风控举措，释放出明确监管信号——在行情快速演绎、资金高度集中阶段，通过制度性“降温”，抑制过度投机，防范价格失真与市场风险，保障期货市场平稳运行。申银万国期货指出，碳酸锂主力合约继续创新高，近日涨幅较大，谨慎参与。2025年11月，国内动力电池装车量同比增长39.2%，储能市场也维持高景气度，市场对2026年一季度的需求有“淡季不淡”的预期。碳酸锂周度库存维持小幅去化节奏。尽管多个新项目在未来有望释放供给增量，但短期内的供给压力相对缓和。短期涨势能否延续？最近碳酸锂市场彻底火了，现货和期货价格一起往上冲，成了有色金属圈的 “流量担当”。这波反弹不是凭空而来，而是成本、供需、资金等多方面共同作用的结果。碳酸锂的产业链也还好不算很复杂，我们先看看其产业链大致架构，对这个品种有个大概的理解，后续对其供需的拆解，就能比较清晰了 。价格 + 成本双轮驱动，期现一起 “发力”这轮碳酸锂涨价，最直观的就是现货和期货的同步上涨。现货方面，12 月底电池级碳酸锂价格已经涨到了 11 万 - 12 万元 / 吨，短短一周就涨了 16% 以上，创下了阶段性的新高。期货市场更激进，相关合约价格冲到了 13 万 / 吨，比现货还高，这说明市场普遍看好后续价格走势。数据来源：同花顺有意思的是，上游原材料也跟着 “涨声” 一片。澳大利亚进口的锂精矿价格一周涨了 13%，现在每吨卖到 1370-1650 美元。而 11 月国内进口了 67.8 万吨锂精矿，同比大增 40%，这么多高成本的矿石进入市场，既给碳酸锂价格托了底，也意味着产业链的利润分配在重新调整。另外，不同类型锂盐的价格差也能看出市场需求的偏好：电池级碳酸锂比工业级贵 2650 元 / 吨，比氢氧化锂贵 9900 元 / 吨，这说明动力电池对高品质锂盐的需求更旺，而不同应用领域的需求分化也越来越明显。供给短期紧、需求冷热不均当前市场的核心矛盾，其实是供给和需求的 “互相拉扯”。先看供给端，现在是 “短期紧张、长期宽松” 的局面。国内碳酸锂产量稳步增加，11 月产量同比快接近 50%，锂辉石、锂云母、盐湖、回收这四个渠道都在贡献产量，供给来源越来越多元。进口方面也有新变化，1-11 月国内总共进口了 21.9 万吨碳酸锂，同比增长 5.8%。澳大利亚还是主要供应国，非洲的份额也在增加；智利虽然碳酸锂出口少了点，但硫酸锂出口量暴增，全部都卖到了中国，成了补充供给的重要力量。不过短期供给有两个 “卡脖子” 的地方：一是枧下窝项目复产要推迟到春节后，加上锂矿采矿证注销的政策，短期内想多产碳酸锂有点难；二是部分高成本产能释放得慢，导致市场一直存在供需缺口，11 月缺口还有 1.3 万多吨。但长期来看，供给宽松是大趋势，明年 1 月江西强宇项目就要投产，加上锂矿复产，到时候供给可能会明显增加，甚至出现库存累积。需求端则是 “一半火焰一半海水”。储能市场是绝对的 “增长引擎”，预计 2026 年增速能达到 40%-50%，需求韧性特别强，成了支撑锂盐需求的 “压舱石”。但动力电池这边就进入了传统淡季，湖南裕能、德方纳米这些头部企业都在检修减产，六氟磷酸锂报价也下调了，能明显感觉到终端需求的压力。从全球范围看，新能源汽车市场的表现也不一样：国内和欧洲市场增速不错，国内新能源汽车渗透率都到 60.6% 了；但美国市场增速很慢，渗透率还下降了，这种区域差异也给需求增添了不确定性。2026 年初看 “排产”对于 2026 年初的市场，关键就看 1 月下游企业的排产情况 —— 这是决定后续价格走向的核心。如果 1 月需求淡季真的来了，下游排产大幅减少，那当前的涨势可能就难持续；但如果排产能保持平稳，再加上短期供给紧张的支撑，价格还有继续上涨的动力。另外，天齐锂业更改了现货定价方式，中上游企业开始争取长协价格的主动权，这也会帮助现货价格更合理。不过有几个风险点需要重点关注。首先是供给增量风险，明年 1 月新产能投产加上锂矿复产，供给可能比预期的多，导致库存积压，给价格带来压力；其次是需求风险，如果动力电池需求下滑超预期，或者储能市场增长放缓，可能会引发市场情绪转向；还有资金博弈的风险，现在市场主要是资金在主导，价格波动可能会很大；最后是政策和外部环境的变化，比如锂矿相关政策调整、全球新能源汽车补贴退坡等，都可能影响市场。总的来说，当前碳酸锂市场正处在短期供需紧平衡和长期供给宽松的交叉点，这波反弹是成本、供给约束和资金推动的共同结果。2026 年初的行情，核心就是看下游排产数据。不管是投资者还是产业链上的企业，接下来可以重点跟踪 1 月排产、新产能投产进度和锂精矿价格，既要抓住机会，也要做好风险管理，避免被市场波动 “打个措手不及”。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2595903202","isCrawlerRequest":true}