2025中国科技新风向：大厂千亿重注AI 竞逐超级入口

21世纪经济报道2025-12-29

回望2025年全年，AI成为贯穿中国科技行业一整年的核心主题词。　　AI被普遍视为驱动下一轮生产力革命和商业模式迭代的确定性技术方向。伴随人口与流量红利的逐步消退，腾讯、阿里巴巴、字节跳动等互联网头部企业纷纷将发展重心聚焦于AI领域，2025年的相关布局动作更为密集。　　相较于比拼模型参数，2025年行业发展更看重技术落地。大厂们基本沿着两大路径推进：对内，将AI深度植入核心业务，将其作为激活存量...

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entrances","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ALBmain":0.6,"00700":1.94,"TCHmain":0.6,"09888":1.87,"BABA":1.95,"TCEHY":1.94,"BIDU":1.87,"HTCD.SI":0.6,"09988":1.95},"content_text":"回望2025年全年，AI成为贯穿中国科技行业一整年的核心主题词。　　AI被普遍视为驱动下一轮生产力革命和商业模式迭代的确定性技术方向。伴随人口与流量红利的逐步消退，腾讯、阿里巴巴、字节跳动等互联网头部企业纷纷将发展重心聚焦于AI领域，2025年的相关布局动作更为密集。　　相较于比拼模型参数，2025年行业发展更看重技术落地。大厂们基本沿着两大路径推进：对内，将AI深度植入核心业务，将其作为激活存量业务价值、挖掘护城河的工具；对外，则竞相布局有望定义下一代交互范式的原生AI应用与硬件产品，全力争夺面向未来的“超级入口”入场券。与此同时，企业也持续大手笔投入，相关资本开支规模达到数百上千亿元。　　短期的财务承压在所难免，而缺席赛道的风险则更大。大厂们正依托自身资源禀赋，在技术研发、生态构建、商业化落地等多个维度全面展开竞争。　　千亿资本开道　　打开任何一家中国互联网科技巨头的财报，最引人注目的数字往往与AI直接相关。2025年以来，AI已成各大公司财报电话会上的核心议题，其相关投入的规模和节奏，显示出各企业对未来技术话语权与市场份额的激烈争夺。　　阿里巴巴是最早宣布明确AI投资规模的巨头。2025年2月下旬，阿里巴巴宣布未来三年投入3800亿元建设云和AI硬件基础设施，超过去十年的投入总和。其力度已初步显现。最新财报显示，过去四个季度，阿里在“AI+云”基础设施领域的累计资本开支已达1200亿元。　　在11月召开的财报会议上，阿里巴巴管理层表示，年初宣布的3800亿元的战略投入规划偏保守，并准备在市场供不应求时进一步加码。　　另一边，字节跳动的投入力度也不小。根据东方证券2025年7月的研究报告，字节跳动2025年的资本开支计划高达1500亿元，同比大幅增长88%。近期有市场消息显示，字节跳动将在2026年进一步增加资本支出，预计高达1600亿元人民币。　　相比之下，腾讯虽同样在2025年加大相关投入力度，整体布局节奏却显得更为审慎稳健。　　在2024年第四季度，腾讯将资本开支同比猛增386%至365.8亿元，主要用以抢购关键的GPU。腾讯总裁刘炽平在2025年3月份的业绩电话会上称，计划2025年进一步增加资本支出，并预计资本支出将占收入的低两位数百分比。以腾讯的营收规模估算，2025年其资本支出也将达到千亿元左右。　　百度虽未披露同等量级的长期资本计划，但其在业绩电话会上明确，自2023年3月生成式AI浪潮启动后的10个季度内，公司对AI领域的累计投入已超1000亿元，且后续将持续加大研发投入，加速大模型研发与商业化落地。　　巨额投入背后，市场更关心的是，这些昂贵的投入能否以及何时转化为可持续的商业回报和利润增长。从最新财报中，我们已经可以看到一些积极的早期信号。　　2025年第三季度，阿里云收入同比增长34%，其中AI相关产品收入已连续九个季度保持三位数同比增长；腾讯营销服务收入增长21%，其中“AI驱动的广告平台改进”被明确列为关键因素；百度尽管总营收同比有所下滑，但首次单列的AI业务收入同比增长超过50%，成为公司增长的核心引擎。　　而这场布局背后的重仓投入，必然伴随着相应的风险。AI基础设施的投资周期长、资金回收慢，各大企业的利润势必在短期内承压，例如阿里第三季度经营利润已同比大幅下滑85%，降至53.65亿元。尽管如此，AI作为行业公认的确定性技术未来，没有任何一家头部巨头愿意在相关投资上放缓脚步。　　AI重做一切　　巨额投资为AI铺路后，AI的具体落地应用究竟有哪些方向？　　一个基本的共识是，各家大厂都在将AI融入自身业务线。在存量竞争的当下，AI已成为大厂挖掘自身业务护城河深度、实现高质量增长所必须握紧的核心工具。　　腾讯已将“元宝”接入了微信、腾讯会议、腾讯视频等数十个内部核心应用，成为用户社交、办公、娱乐中的一个随时可调用的底层能力。同样，阿里巴巴也已将自研大模型“通义千问”全面融入电商、钉钉、高德等核心业务。阿里巴巴董事会主席蔡崇信曾明确表示，未来三到五年所有业务都要以AI为驱动，把AI做成新的流量入口和业务增长引擎。　　更垂直的场景里，高德推出基于AI技术的“扫街榜”、美团面向用户推出的智能生活助理“小美”、京东零售则发布AI品牌Oxygen构建柔性供应链，重塑用户体验，使传统服务变得更智能、更顺畅。　　对于大厂来说，底层逻辑都是类似的，即用AI把自家最大、最成熟的流量池，变成更高频、更难被替代的“超级入口”。　　以阿里巴巴为例，电商业务是其发展根基，却在近年陷入增长放缓的瓶颈，而AI的深度融入则有望为其带来突破的可能。2025年“双11”期间，阿里的AI技术应用规模达到历史峰值，有500万商家使用AI工具“生意管家”，实现运营效率平均提升1.5倍。对消费者而言，AI也不再是营销噱头，“AI万能搜”、“AI试穿”等导购应用，已成为购物流程中的自然组成部分。　　除了核心业务，广告是离钱最近、见效最快的AI应用试验田，也是各大厂通过AI实现显著提效的重点业务线。　　传统广告依赖人工经验与静态标签，而大模型能实时解析海量用户行为，动态匹配需求。腾讯研究院的报告显示，我们正从“计算广告”迈入“智能广告”时代。　　腾讯最新财报显示，其营销服务收入在2025年第三季度同比增长21%，达到362.4亿元，这已是该业务连续第十二个季度保持两位数增长。其增长引擎正是指向AI，通过混元大模型驱动的广告精准定向，有效提升了广告的千次展示收入（eCPM）。　　百度披露的“AI原生营销服务”收入在2025年第三季度同比激增262%，达到28亿元，已占到其核心广告收入的18%，Agent和数字人有效提升了广告的交互性和ROI（投资回报率），成为抵消传统搜索广告下滑压力的新引擎。　　阿里同样借助AI为电商广告赋能提效，依托大模型升级了“全站推广”工具，使中小商家投放效率提升40%以上，其推广引导成交额同比增长达千亿级规模，其中AI驱动的新客占比超80%。　　由此可见，AI 对这些业务的 “重做”，正从通用型、辅助性能力，转向深度化、垂直化且能够直接创造商业价值的解决方案。　　决胜入口　　在赋能既有业务之外，行业的全新增量方向何在？答案毋庸置疑，正是AI原生入口之争。　　互联网的每一次代际更迭，都伴随着超级入口的变迁：互联网时代的核心入口是搜索引擎，移动互联网时代诞生了微信、抖音这类超级APP；当AI行业迈入智能体时代，市场亟需一个真正的原生AI应用，成为全新的超级入口。　　历经两年多的技术迭代，大模型在理解能力、生成质量及多模态交互层面均实现显著突破，为C端AI应用的规模化落地扫清了技术障碍。2025年以来，各大厂布局AI应用的动作频繁。　　字节跳动的豆包、腾讯的元宝等产品已率先在C端站稳脚跟。QuestMobile发布的《2025年第三季度中国AI应用市场报告》显示，市场已形成三强格局——字节豆包月活用户为1.72亿，DeepSeek月活用户达1.45亿，二者共同构成亿级用户的第一梯队，腾讯元宝则以3286万月活用户位居第三。　　阿里在这一赛道的发力节奏稍晚。2025年11月，阿里推出“千问”APP，由原“通义”App升级改版而成，公测一周，下载量即突破1000万。紧接着，蚂蚁集团发布全模态通用AI助手“灵光”，上线仅4天，下载量破百万。　　“大模型应用在企业级和消费级的界限日渐模糊，而且企业级的应用，很多时候也靠C端应用的数据来反哺和迭代。”IDC中国研究总监卢言霞向21世纪经济报道记者表示，“未来一定是大模型和Agent的时代，有雄心的企业，都不会错过C端布局。”　　业内人士认为，C端市场真正的爆发点不在“娱乐化AI”，而在“生产力型AI”，这也是当前C端应用略显薄弱的地方。因此，无论是“千问”还是“灵光”，都在强调其“可用性”。目前，千问已经展现出一定的办事能力，更远的未来，千问APP的战略目标是打造未来的AI生活入口。　　除了应用，另一个值得关注的入口是硬件。　　AI智能眼镜被视为最有可能成为下一代个人计算中心的设备，科技巨头已悉数入场。市场的火热催生了“百镜大战”，阿里发布“夸克AI眼镜”融入阿里生态，百度推出小度AI眼镜Pro，小米则以1999元价位切入赛道。　　根据IDC数据，2025年上半年，全球智能眼镜市场出货量同比增长64.2%。其中，中国出货量突破100万台，占据全球26.6%的市场份额，展现出巨大的市场潜力。IDC还称，2026年，中国智能眼镜市场将迎来规模化的关键转折点，产品形态、交互方式与服务模式都将发生重要变化。　　与此同时，“AI手机”的概念也在2025年底被推向高潮。12月初，字节跳动联合中兴努比亚推出深度集成豆包能力的“nubia M153”手机，尝试通过系统级整合，让AI助手具备跨应用串联任务的能力。虽然此举因涉及生态权限问题引发争议，但它仍然代表了一种方向。　　硬件竞赛的本质是争夺AI时代与用户交互的“第一触点”。无论是眼镜还是手机，控制了入口，即意味着掌握了定义交互规则、汇聚高质量数据并让自身AI服务获得最大规模曝光的主动权。　　不过，入口之争仍在早期阶段，智能体、AI硬件、原生应用尚需时间验证其用户黏性与商业闭环能力，各大厂之间的竞争还远没有分出胜负。这场混合了技术、资本与生态的漫长马拉松，刚刚跑过第一个弯道。（文章来源：21世纪经济报道）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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