TrendForce：下调2026年全球笔电出货量预估年减至5.4%

LED在线2025-12-30

根据TrendForce集邦咨询最新调查，在整体经济复苏力道有限、消费行为趋于保守的背景下，快速上升的存储器价格正持续侵蚀笔电品牌的获利及定价弹性。因此，TrendForce集邦咨询再度下调2026年全球笔电出货预估至年减5.4%，降至近1.73亿台，以反映品牌面对成本压力扩大，对库存、促销与产品配置采取的保守态度。倘若2026年第二季存储器价格涨幅未合理收敛，而品牌在无法顺利转嫁成本下，恐将面临...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251230170435a6e09ee4&s=b><strong>LED在线</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>根据TrendForce集邦咨询最新调查，在整体经济复苏力道有限、消费行为趋于保守的背景下，快速上升的存储器价格正持续侵蚀笔电品牌的获利及定价弹性。因此，TrendForce集邦咨询再度下调2026年全球笔电出货预估至年减5.4%，降至近1.73亿台，以反映品牌面对成本压力扩大，对库存、促销与产品配置采取的保守态度。倘若2026年第二季存储器价格涨幅未合理收敛，而品牌在无法顺利转嫁成本下，恐将面临...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251230170435a6e09ee4&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0726765562.USD","symbol_name":"JPM GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD HEDGED) 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case)发展，下探至年减10.1%。TrendForce集邦咨询表示，笔电市场高度依赖供应链关系、产品组合、渠道策略与企业客户需求，品牌商若与主要存储器原厂维持长期、稳定的合作，且商务与中高阶产品占比较高，并具备成熟的渠道与价格管理能力，对本轮存储器涨价将有较佳的抵御能力，能维持出货稳定性。以Apple为例，尽管面临存储器成本上升压力，其高度整合的供应链体系与品牌定价能力，仍能提供较大的产品线调整弹性。此外，由于Apple有长期且稳定的采购规模、明确产品节奏以及高度可预期的需求规划，支持其在存储器原厂端取得较优先的合作顺序。在整体市场承压的情况下，Apple规划于2026年春推出12.9吋机种，以切入入门至中阶价位区间。即便非理想时机，但若能持续发挥供应链效率与规模优势，维持相对友善的定价水准，产品仍将成功吸引消费者，市场渗透与长期出货表现也获得加分。对出货量最大的Lenovo而言，虽然难以避免MSRP(厂商建议售价)上调，但其规模优势与成熟的供应链将有助控制涨幅，创造更多应对成本上行的操作空间，甚至有机会逆势扩大市占表现。TrendForce集邦咨询指出，笔电整机市场受到存储器涨价冲击，将连带导致2026年笔电面板出货动能受损，目前预估出货量将年减约7.9%。其中，LCD面板除了面临笔电整机需求下修，还面临OLED面板渗透率提升的双重威胁，预期出货量衰退较多。而OLED笔电面板虽因品牌积极提高OLED机种占比，预计2026年出货仍可维持正成长，但因品牌必须一定程度地反映存储器成本至终端售价，将冲击消费者购买意愿，OLED笔电面板成长恐随之放缓。（文：TrendForce集邦咨询）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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