复盘2025外卖“三国杀”，烧钱千亿后的市场何去何从丨年终策划

来咖智库2025-12-29

LAIKA2025/12/29美团求稳、京东立新、阿里主攻。作者 | 金刀编辑 | G30072025年伊始，沉寂许久的外卖行业，被一场始于京东的千亿烧钱大战彻底改写。2月，京东以“品质外卖”为旗帜高调入局，打破了美团与阿里（饿了么）长期七三开的对峙格局。随后美团奋起防守，阿里则通过将饿了么升级为淘宝闪购全面参战。这场横跨全年的战役，最终以近千亿资金消耗、行业格局重新洗牌的结果暂歇硝烟。如今站在...

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G30072025年伊始，沉寂许久的外卖行业，被一场始于京东的千亿烧钱大战彻底改写。2月，京东以“品质外卖”为旗帜高调入局，打破了美团与阿里（饿了么）长期七三开的对峙格局。随后美团奋起防守，阿里则通过将饿了么升级为淘宝闪购全面参战。这场横跨全年的战役，最终以近千亿资金消耗、行业格局重新洗牌的结果暂歇硝烟。如今站在年末回望，三家平台迥异的打法路径清晰浮现，而“各自收获了什么”、“付出了怎样的代价”、“2026年是继续混战还是鸣金收兵”也成为外界最关注的话题。但对外卖行业来说，未来的胜负不在于短期流量争夺，而在于长期生态重构。无论是美团的技术创新、饿了么的生态协同，还是京东的品质深耕，本质上都是对“平台+商家+骑手+消费者”四方关系的重新梳理，更是从“零和博弈”向“生态共赢”的转型。01打法分化三家的差异化破局与防守之道从2月京东鸣枪宣战，到年末淘宝闪购完成品牌整合，三家平台基于自身资源禀赋，走出了三条截然不同的竞争路径。这场大战的核心，早已超越单纯的外卖订单争夺，而是延伸至生态的全面博弈。京东：后来者的“闪电突袭”作为本轮大战的发起者，京东一上来就采取了“高举高打”的模式，避开与美团在规模上的正面缠斗，而是以高姿态入局占据舆论高地。首先，京东官方突然官宣进军外卖市场，并且以“0佣金”作为吸引品质商家入驻的条件，快速吸引超200万商户入驻，同时上线初期即推出百亿补贴计划，将沉寂许久的外卖市场再次点燃。其次，京东先于美团一步，宣布为十几万全职骑手缴纳五险一金，不仅为京东外卖赚足话题热度，更为京东集团赢得品牌美誉度。再者，成功绑定主站生态，通过开通外卖业务为京东App引流，实现高频外卖与低频零售的协同。这套组合拳的成效立竿见影：京东外卖订单量呈爆发式增长，3月突破100万单，4月达500万单，5月攀升至2000万单，截至6月上线90天，日订单量已突破2500万单，仅用三个月就达到饿了么深耕十余年规模的三分之二。其战略逻辑目的为借助外卖的高频属性降低主站获客成本，同时以品质定位在红海市场中开辟细分赛道，本质是“智猪博弈”中的后发跟随策略，借行业成熟心智撬动用户迁移。阿里：从外卖到闪购的升级，以生态战发起猛攻阿里的应对策略最为彻底，从被动跟进转为主动重构。此前一度被边缘化的饿了么重回舞台中央，并且升级为淘宝闪购，完成了从“餐饮外卖平台”到“全品类即时零售平台”的战略跃迁。其打法核心是生态协同：一是流量整合，将淘宝闪购设为首页一级入口，借助淘宝10亿年活跃买家的流量优势，为即时零售业务引流，此处与京东不谋而合；二是履约整合，复用饿了么多年积累的配送网络与商户资源，形成“流量+履约”的双重合力；三是供应链整合，接入菜鸟供应链与天猫超市，拓展生鲜、数码、医药等全品类供给。这一转型历时8个月之久。今年4月，淘宝“小时达”升级为淘宝闪购，9月接入天猫旗舰店，10月菜鸟供应链加入，12月饿了么App正式更名，形成从线上流量到线下履约的完整闭环。数据显示，三季度阿里即时零售收入同比增长60%至229.06亿元，日订单峰值突破1.2亿单，带动手淘日活同比增长20%，成功将外卖竞争引入阿里最擅长的电商生态战场。美团：守擂者的防御反击，以技术与效率筑墙面对京东的突袭与阿里的加码，美团作为行业龙头，采取了“以守为攻、全域防御”的打法。一方面，针对性加大补贴力度，三季度销售营销开支同比激增90.9%，从2024年同期的180亿元增至343亿元，重点保障核心用户留存；另一方面，强化履约网络优势，依托七百余万活跃骑手构建的配送体系，维持34分钟的平均送达时效，同时推进无人机配送商业化，累计完成超67万笔商业订单，以技术降本对冲补贴压力。更关键的是，美团将外卖竞争延伸至即时零售全品类，7月即时零售日订单峰值突破1.5亿单，非餐饮订单占比持续提升，通过“万物到家”的心智强化，抵御对手在单一餐饮赛道的冲击。美团CEO王兴在财报电话会上的表态印证了其战略：“我们坚决反对低质低价的内卷式竞争，但会投入必要资源捍卫市场地位”，而其核心底气在于高客单价订单优势，在实付30元以上订单，美团占比超70%，核心用户留存率保持高位。02得失账本千亿烧钱背后的收获与代价尽管三家都表示，各自收获了阶段性成果，但仅2025年三季度，美团、阿里、京东三家的外卖相关营销开支增量就达614亿元，全年消耗近千亿。这场大战中，没有绝对的赢家。（图源：搜狐科技）京东的核心收获是实现了市场破局与生态协同。一方面，外卖业务快速起量，90天日单破2500万单，成功挤上外卖市场的牌桌，且在美团与阿里的夹缝中站稳脚跟，据财观新闻报道，截至12月京东市占率达到8%；另一方面，外卖为京东主站带来显著流量增量，第三季度京东App的整体DAU继续保持高速增长，增速持续领跑行业，京东用户数和购物频次同比增速超40%。此外，全职骑手五险一金的保障体系提升了品牌社会声誉，“七鲜小厨”等自营业态3日复购率达行业3倍，也隐约看到了新业态的方向。但京东的代价也是非常明显，那就是巨额且持续的亏损。三季度财报显示，包含外卖在内的新业务亏损扩大至157.36亿元，较二季度的147.77亿元进一步加剧，营销费用同比激增110.5%至211亿元。更严峻的是，品质定位导致市场天花板有限，高客单价策略难以覆盖价格敏感型用户，且自营物流体系限制了下沉市场渗透，规模效应难以形成，长期盈利压力显著。高盛研报预测，京东外卖业务在2025年第三季度至2026年第二季度的12个月内，亏损可能达到260亿元。阿里的核心突破在于完成了即时零售与电商生态的深度整合，淘宝闪购的品牌转型成效显著。三季度即时零售收入同比增长60%至229.06亿元，日订单峰值突破1.2亿单，月度交易用户超3亿。更重要的是，协同效应为主站带来新的流量。Questmobile统计，手淘日活从4月的3.75亿提升至9月的4.37亿，用户月打开次数增加10次，天猫品牌接入闪购后，双十一期间超1.9万个餐饮品牌成交额翻倍。此外，本地生活业务亏损收窄趋势明显，2025财年经调整EBITA亏损较上年收窄62%，单位经济模型持续优化。而阿里的压力也集中在短期投入上。三季度阿里销售和市场费用同比激增340亿元，从2024年同期的324.71亿元增至664.96亿元，经营利润同比骤降85%，巨额投入拖累了整体盈利表现。同时，资本市场对阿里质疑声音不断，原本的“AI叙事”逻辑被“外卖大战”打断，尽管淘宝闪购市场份额提升至42%，但与美团仍有差距，且高盛预测2025-2026年其外卖相关业务仍将亏损410亿元，短期内将持续影响盈利表现。近一年的时间，美团成功抵御了对手冲击，证明了行业龙头地位无法撼动。尽管市场竞争激烈，对手来势汹汹，但其核心用户留存率持续高位，实付30元以上高客单价订单占比超70%，实付15元以上订单占比超三分之二，核心用户心智尚未被撼动。同时，美团即时零售业务加速增长，7月日订单峰值突破1.5亿单，非餐饮订单占比提升至30%，为未来增长打开空间，且截至年末仍占据50%的市场份额，规模优势依然明显。当然，美团的财务代价同样惨重。三季度经调整净亏损达160亿元，去年同期为盈利128亿元，核心本地商业经营利润由正转负，亏损141亿元，创下上市以来单季度最差纪录。销售营销开支的激增直接挤压了利润空间，三季度该费用在收入中的占比从19.2%飙升至35.9%，短期盈利能力大幅下滑。中金证券预测，2025年美团全年经调整净亏损将达168亿元，盈利修复尚需时间。032026展望暂时休战而非彻底鸣金收兵随着年末监管约谈规范竞争，三家平台相继收缩补贴，本轮外卖大战的最激烈阶段或许已经过去。但结合行业趋势与平台战略来看，2026年三家大概率只是“暂时休战”，而非彻底鸣金收兵，这表现在价格战会降温，围绕即时零售的价值竞争将全面升级。从行业层面看，即时零售的万亿市场潜力决定了竞争不会就此终结。商务部研究院数据显示，2026年我国即时零售规模将突破1万亿元，2030年将达到2万亿元，年均增速达12.6%。这块增量市场是电商与本地生活融合的核心战场，对京东和阿里而言，即时零售是捍卫电商基本盘的关键；对美团而言，则是巩固本地生活优势的核心，没有平台愿意轻易放弃。监管层面的“反内卷”要求，更多是遏制低于成本价的恶性补贴，而非禁止正常竞争，这为行业回归理性竞争划定了边界。从平台战略来看，三家已集体从“杀敌一千自损八百”的补贴模式转向“价值竞争”，投入节奏更趋理性。阿里CFO徐宏已明确表态，三季度是淘宝闪购投入的高点，四季度投入将显著收缩；美团将继续强化高价值用户服务，王兴强调“将专注于服务体验与运营效率，相信非理性竞争只是暂时的”；京东则大概率会收缩补贴规模，聚焦高价值用户群体，深化“七鲜小厨”等自营业态，重点考核外卖用户向零售业务的转化率，以协同效应对冲亏损压力。摩根大通认为，美团有望在2026年年中实现盈亏平衡，下半年每单盈利0.4-0.5元，而阿里巴巴仍需至2026年底才能接近盈亏平衡。这意味着美团的盈利能力修复将早于预期，阿里巴巴外卖业务短期仍将承压。对于这场外卖大战，市场预期2026一季度会继续降温，但在有限的财务回报之外，各平台对生态价值的追求会不会引发新一轮大战，也许没人能预测。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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