礼来卷爆减肥药赛道

北海茶客投研笔记2025-12-30

前两天看到一个信息，简直要把我震晕。明年一月一日起，替尔泊肽的价格要按下面这个截图进行。注意，这个价格是不管院内还是院外，都是给的这个价格。这不是腰斩，也不是膝盖斩，这是脚踝斩。礼来的销售人员说自己看到这个的时候就惊讶了一下，这是要把这个赛道卷爆了。不管是诺和诺德的司美格鲁肽还是信达的玛氏度肽，大概率也只能跟随降价了。GLP-1赛道，卒于25年末。回到市场：1、看到一个还算知名的私募，差不多...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251230151157a4892931&s=b><strong>北海茶客投研笔记</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>前两天看到一个信息，简直要把我震晕。明年一月一日起，替尔泊肽的价格要按下面这个截图进行。注意，这个价格是不管院内还是院外，都是给的这个价格。这不是腰斩，也不是膝盖斩，这是脚踝斩。礼来的销售人员说自己看到这个的时候就惊讶了一下，这是要把这个赛道卷爆了。不管是诺和诺德的司美格鲁肽 还是信达的玛氏度肽，大概率也只能跟随降价了。GLP-1赛道，卒于25年末。回到市场：1、看到一个还算知名的私募，差不多...</p>\n\n<a 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还是信达的玛氏度肽，大概率也只能跟随降价了。GLP-1赛道，卒于25年末。回到市场：1、看到一个还算知名的私募，差不多all in 泡泡马特，成了这个股票的代言人。这种模式做基金真的不可取，不管赌对还是赌错都是错误的基金管理方法。对于赌单一赛道的主观基金，尽量进而远之，包括林园但斌，这种模式早晚有一天会出问题的。也是现在主观基金卖不过量化的主要原因。2、保险公司开门红数据卖得特别好，符合我们的预期：3、这两天商品崩了，搞不清楚啥原因，但上周末商品的声音特别大，一般自媒体声音大的时候就要小心。传宁德时代要求锂矿企业降价，并表示锂矿根本不缺。宁王是市场上独一无二的大买家，掌握很重的议价权，所以今天锂矿股全面扑街。除此之外我们也调研到某些有色龙头在li方面扩张的很厉害。4、研究了一下核药，具体报告放在星球了，说说结论：（1）诺华的Pluvicto确实具备50亿美元级潜力（前提后未来一两年一线前列腺癌3期临床读数阳性），原子高科直接受益。 中核海德威资产稳定性高，呼吸检测的24亿收入已没什么增长，但静态给个3-5倍PS还是可以的，考虑折价20%，也能给中国同辐有望贡献30亿的权益市值。 就算不算可能亏损的中核安科瑞，中国同辐目前50-60亿的市值还是比较合理的。（2）远大医药持股信心更多在管理层层面，脓毒症新药研发难度较大，在研核心管线基本全部引进。肝癌的钇90Y微球是关键，但是国内能否销售爬上20亿可能还是不太清晰。（3）A股的东诚药业虽然自研上相比同辐、远大要更进取些但进度还是落后外资太多。且其核药多年维持10-12亿收入，业绩波动完全随着肝素原料药价格波动。最关键是相比于中国同辐10多倍的PE，东诚的动态PE估值仅从核药来看已经溢价太多，未来相对空间预计不大。5、我们一直关注的中集安瑞科居然跟商业航天扯上了关系：中集安瑞科的商业航天业务聚焦低温与高压储运加注核心装备，依托其在能源装备领域的低温、高压技术积累，为国内外火箭发射提供推进剂储运与供气系统。中集集团近日在投资者互动平台上表示，集团子公司中集安瑞科在低温特种装备领域拥有深厚技术积累，能够提供包括燃料运输、储存、加注系统在内的关键装备，已成为多个商业航天公司的配套服务商。年内中集安瑞科为客户的商业航天项目提供了9台大型低温液氧储罐。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"2","news_tag":"productRelease","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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