Waymo千亿美元高估值背后的支撑是什么：自动驾驶网约车、配送服务、技术授权...

环球市场播报2025-12-30

Waymo能否撑起1000亿美元的估值？这是投资者即将给出答案的问题。作为谷歌母公司Alphabet旗下的自动驾驶网约车公司，Waymo正洽谈新一轮融资，其目标估值相当于年化营收的280倍——这一倍数远超其他网约车企业。　　尽管近期遭遇旧金山停电期间暂停服务等小插曲，但Waymo近几个月的快速扩张，似乎预示着它有能力成长为与估值匹配的企业。随着在更多城市新增用户、推出新服务（无论是从优步和...

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licensing...","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"UBER":1.87,"TSYW.SI":0.6},"content_text":"Waymo能否撑起1000亿美元的估值？这是投资者即将给出答案的问题。作为谷歌母公司Alphabet旗下的自动驾驶网约车公司，Waymo正洽谈新一轮融资，其目标估值相当于年化营收的280倍——这一倍数远超其他网约车企业。\n　　尽管近期遭遇旧金山停电期间暂停服务等小插曲，但Waymo近几个月的快速扩张，似乎预示着它有能力成长为与估值匹配的企业。随着在更多城市新增用户、推出新服务（无论是从优步和Lyft手中抢占市场份额，还是挖掘全新需求），其营收有望持续增长。\n　　截至今年，这家由谷歌控股的公司已完成超1400万次无安全员付费自动驾驶行程，是2024年的三倍。目前其在5个城市提供付费出行服务，年化营收已突破3.5亿美元。公司计划2026年在至少5个新增城市向公众开放自动驾驶出租车（robotaxi）服务。摩根士丹利分析师在1月发布的最近预测显示，到2030年，Waymo的年化营收至少可能达到25亿美元。\n　　风险投资公司SuRo Capital的投资者Evan Schlossman一直关注Waymo的动态，他表示：“Waymo是一家同时具备软硬件能力的独特企业，无需依赖极端假设，就能看到其庞大营收基数的快速增长。”他认为，Waymo未来的业务覆盖地区有望扩大至当前的约5倍，这一预期并非不合理。\n　　若年化销售额达到25亿美元，Waymo的预期估值倍数将降至40倍营收。即便如此，相比之下，优步和Lyft的营收倍数均不足3倍。尽管这两家公司的增速可能远低于Waymo，但预计2025年营收增长率将达到mid-teens（15%左右），且均已实现盈利。\n　　自动驾驶出租车的普及究竟会在多大程度上侵蚀传统网约车服务的需求，目前仍不明确。摩根士丹利分析师在本月的报告中预测，若自动驾驶出租车的需求是对有人驾驶网约车需求的完全补充，那么未来七年内优步的复合年增长率将达到14%；但如果自动驾驶出租车取代了部分原本由人类司机提供的行程，优步同期的增长率将降至个位数。\n　　Waymo的一大优势在于，其营收来源可能不止于网约车服务。Waymo联合首席执行官特克德拉・马瓦卡纳表示，公司计划将业务从自动驾驶出租车扩展至本地配送和长途货运领域，最终还将向汽车制造商授权其自动驾驶技术。\n　　今年10月，Waymo宣布与外卖平台DoorDash合作，在凤凰城推出自动驾驶送餐服务，这或许是其拓展新业务的一个预览。在优步的业务结构中，外卖配送占营收的三分之一，且增长速度快于网约车服务；剔除股票薪酬、折旧和摊销后，外卖配送贡献了约40%的营业利润。\n　　对Waymo而言，向汽车制造商授权软件可能还需时日，但这类授权费用最终有望提升利润率——因为维护和改进软件的管理成本，可能不会像投放更多自动驾驶出租车那样高昂。\n　　幸运的是，对于Waymo而言，若推进此次融资，现金消耗型网约车初创企业最终实现估值兑现的案例已有先例。2014年12月，当时仍处于私有阶段的优步以400亿美元估值融资，这一估值是当年6月上一轮融资估值的两倍，也是当时风投支持初创企业的最高估值，引发了投资者和分析师的广泛关注。彼时成立仅5年的优步，营收仅为数亿美元（具体金额当时未公开披露）。\n　　事实证明，外界对优步估值的担忧是过度的。2015年，优步净营收约为15亿美元，大致是2014年的三倍，这意味着其投资者当时的投资倍数约为预期销售额的27倍。\n　　特斯拉的优势\n　　尽管Waymo无需支付人类司机薪酬来运营服务，但其他长期成本仍存在诸多不确定性。自动驾驶汽车的保险费用是关键不确定因素之一，另一大担忧是Waymo车辆上安装的探测传感器及配套硬件成本高昂。\n　　在硬件成本方面，Waymo相比特斯拉处于劣势。特斯拉的自动驾驶汽车使用成本更低的摄像头进行道路测绘，目前仅在少数城市向网约车乘客开放服务，且配备人类司机进行监督。摩根士丹利分析师在本月的报告中估算，Waymo目前的每英里运营成本约为1.43美元，而特斯拉仅为0.81美元。\n　　这一差距是否会转化为特斯拉的长期优势，仍有待观察。摩根士丹利分析师表示，Waymo计划2026年部署的新型车辆，运营成本可能会降至每英里0.99至1.08美元。部分原因是Waymo正在测试成本更低的基础车辆（未搭载自动驾驶技术的车型），这些车辆来自现代汽车和极氪汽车，而非目前大部分公众出行服务所使用的高端捷豹I-Pace车型。此外，若自动驾驶出租车的安全记录持续改善，保险成本也可能下降。\n　　除成本因素外，在监管审批方面，Waymo相比其他自动驾驶出租车竞争对手具有明显优势。特斯拉与亚马逊旗下自动驾驶出租车公司Zoox一样，仍在等待相关许可，以便在运营城市向乘客收取费用。长期看好特斯拉的风险投资家查Chamath Palihapitiya在X平台上发文指出：“特斯拉必须证明其误差容忍度达到或优于Waymo，这是其责任所在。”他认为，特斯拉需要凭借这样的性能表现，才能说服监管机构允许其更广泛地开展业务。\n　　然而，即便特斯拉或Zoox获得相关许可，Waymo已经通过率先进入多个主要城市建立了稳固的领先地位。如果Waymo能像优步早期发展阶段那样，持续积极地专注于扩张和市场份额争夺，其竞争壁垒可能会比优步更高——目前优步的市值是竞争对手Lyft的20倍以上。\n　　2019年优步上市时市值为820亿美元，与其实物最高私有估值相去不远。如今，优步已实现盈利，业务更加多元化，市值约为上市时的两倍。Waymo的投资者似乎正准备下一笔类似的赌注。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：陈钰嘉","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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