中国平安进可攻、退可守的欠配高股息标的

申万宏源2025-12-31

一、核心观点与投资评级中国平安 (601318)被维持“买入”评级，分析师强调其兼具基本面改善和高股息特征。预计2025-2027年归母净利润分别达1468亿、1612亿、1880亿元人民币，目标价为93.8元/股，对应PEV(26E)为0.99x。公司负债成本管控优势显著，利差表现优于同业，在长端利率企稳、“险资入市”持续推进的背景下，资产端改善趋势明确。二、负债成本管控与行业重估潜力在广谱利率...

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(601318)被维持“买入”评级，分析师强调其兼具基本面改善和高股息特征。预计2025-2027年归母净利润分别达1468亿、1612亿、1880亿元人民币，目标价为93.8元/股，对应PEV(26E)为0.99x。公司负债成本管控优势显著，利差表现优于同业，在长端利率企稳、“险资入市”持续推进的背景下，资产端改善趋势明确。二、负债成本管控与行业重估潜力在广谱利率下行的影响下，市场对人身险公司利差损风险的担忧成为影响估值的核心因素。监管通过压降负债成本化解利差损风险，中国平安在新增和存量负债成本上均表现出显著优势。2024年新增负债成本为2.42%，位居A股险企最低水平；存量负债成本为2.50%，处于安全区间。随着保险板块有望迎来价值重估，中国平安将持续受益。三、基本面改善与银保渠道增长潜力中国平安核心财务指标改善趋势明确，银保渠道有望持续贡献NBV增长Alpha。前三季度公司归母净利润和营运利润增速分别为11.5%和7.2%，多元化渠道布局成果显现，个险代理人规模企稳，银保渠道量价齐升。此外，财险保费增速优于同业，非车险“报行合一”落地后，公司有望显著受益。四、资产配置优化与权益市场弹性公司在资产端积极把握资本市场机遇，大幅提升二级市场权益配置比例，截至6月末股票+权益型基金配置比例达13.8%，较2024年末提升3.9pct，增幅高于同业。3Q25适度调降股票OCI占比，有效把握阶段性投资机会，资产配置再平衡态势下业绩弹性有望逐步显现。五、高股息特征与公募欠配空间中国平安重视股东回报，已构建基于OPAT的分红机制，近13年来每股分红稳步提升，A/H股息率(25E)分别达4.0%/4.5%。当前公募基金对中国平安的重仓比例低于沪深300权重1.92pct，在公募基金新规导向下，未来有望迎来增量资金流入，高股息特征将逐步受到市场认可。六、潜在风险提示报告指出，中国平安面临的主要风险包括长端利率下行、权益市场波动、大灾频发及监管政策超预期变化等。这些因素可能对公司未来的盈利能力和估值产生不利影响，需密切关注相关动态。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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