美股繁荣期延续!花旗乐观预测明年科技股领跑、落后板块跟进

智通财经2025-12-31

智通财经APP获悉，花旗集团美国股票策略主管斯科特·克罗内特(Scott Chronert)认为，当前市场正处于“繁荣期”而非“泡沫期”;展望新的一年，他基于强劲的盈利预期和即将出现的行业板块扩散态势，对市场前景保持乐观。克罗内特将花旗的分析立场形容为评估人工智能(AI)发展动能时的“半杯水视角”(glass half full)，即更侧重积极因素。“关于繁荣期还是泡沫期的讨论一直都有，而我们正...

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Citi optimistically predicts that technology stocks will lead next year, lagging sectors will follow suit","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"03086":1.5,"TTTN":1.5},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，花旗集团美国股票策略主管斯科特·克罗内特(Scott Chronert)认为，当前市场正处于“繁荣期”而非“泡沫期”;展望新的一年，他基于强劲的盈利预期和即将出现的行业板块扩散态势，对市场前景保持乐观。克罗内特将花旗的分析立场形容为评估人工智能(AI)发展动能时的“半杯水视角”(glass half full)，即更侧重积极因素。“关于繁荣期还是泡沫期的讨论一直都有，而我们正处于繁荣期阶段，”他表示。尽管坦言投资者可能正在为明年的基本面提前支付溢价，但克罗内特强调，当前整体市场环境仍呈现\"极具建设性\"的积极态势。花旗的盈利预测位于卖方分析师一致预期的高位区间，其模型预计来年企业盈利将实现3.2%的增长。克罗内特在回应时补充道：“我们对此实际持有相当积极的看法。”这一乐观预期的核心驱动因素在于大型科技股的持续超额表现。他进一步指出，由谷歌(GOOGL.US)、亚马逊(AMZN.US)、Meta(META.US)、微软(MSFT.US)、英伟达(NVDA.US)、特斯拉(TSLA.US)、苹果(AAPL.US)构成的\"Mag 7 精英阵营\"，预计仍将延续\"业绩超预期且上调指引\"(beat and raise)的强劲态势;这七只个股合计占市场总市值约40%，依然是推动指数层面盈利增长的核心引擎。这一乐观预期的核心驱动因素在于大型科技股的持续超额表现。他进一步指出，由谷歌(GOOGL.US)、亚马逊(AMZN.US)、Meta(META.US)、微软(MSFT.US)、英伟达(NVDA.US)、特斯拉(TSLA.US)、苹果(AAPL.US)构成的\"Mag 7 精英阵营\"，预计仍将延续\"业绩超预期且上调指引\"(beat and raise)的强劲态势;这七只个股合计占市场总市值约40%，依然是推动指数层面盈利增长的核心引擎。第二个驱动因素，是涨势有望扩散至近期落后的其他板块。克罗内特指出，能源(XLE)、材料(XLB)、REITs(XLRE)和公用事业(XLU)等板块今年对指数盈利增长构成负贡献。展望未来，他认为这些落后板块将会好转，并为整体良性的盈利图景再添助力。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2595745629","isCrawlerRequest":true}