美媒：马斯克2025年为特斯拉画的“大饼”，一个没实现

凤凰网科技2025-12-31

马斯克的预测再次落空凤凰网科技讯北京时间12月31日，据美国汽车网站Electrek报道，2025年行将结束，埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)那些豪言壮语再次与现实脱节。马斯克曾将2025年描绘成特斯拉大规模扩张、普及自动驾驶和人形机器人的一年，但是这些预测都落空。以下是马斯克未能兑现的五大预测：1.年交付量增长30%2024年，特斯拉电动汽车交付量十年来首次出现下滑。然而在2024年末，...

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Musk)那些豪言壮语再次与现实脱节。马斯克曾将2025年描绘成特斯拉大规模扩张、普及自动驾驶和人形机器人的一年，但是这些预测都落空。以下是马斯克未能兑现的五大预测：1.年交付量增长30%2024年，特斯拉电动汽车交付量十年来首次出现下滑。然而在2024年末，马斯克仍对特斯拉在2025年的增长充满信心。他在财报电话会议上明确表示：“预计2025年交付量将实现20%至30%的增长。”即便到了2025年初，特斯拉仍在谈论“将在本年度恢复增长”，但这一前景随着时间的推移显得愈发渺茫。根据特斯拉最新发布的第四季度预估数据，其年度交付量不增反降，跌至约164万辆，与预期的两位数百分比增长背道而驰。这意味着，即便今年全球电动汽车整体销量猛增25%，特斯拉将连续两年陷入下滑困境。2.Robotaxi覆盖50%美国人口马斯克对自动驾驶出租车(Robotaxi)的预测尤其宏大。2025年7月，他宣称：“我认为到年底，美国可能有一半的人口能够使用自动驾驶网约车服务。”此前，他还断言特斯拉在2025年将“让超过100万辆Robotaxi上路行驶”。这些预测发表于2025年，当时马斯克对特斯拉进展的掌握理应比任何人都更清晰，然而这些豪言不仅未能实现，甚至与现实相距甚远。随着时间的推移，马斯克不得不持续下调其对Robotaxi的预期目标。就在今年10月，他曾宣称特斯拉将于年底前在奥斯汀部署“500辆Robotaxi”。仅一个月后，这个数字就被下调至约60辆。实际情况是，特斯拉在奥斯汀的Robotaxi车队仅由约30辆车组成。这些车辆多数时间处于停运状态，且仍需配备车内安全监控员。3.“震撼演示”2025年夏季，马斯克在X上高调预告，声称将在年底推出“最为史诗级的演示”。Electrek当时就指出，这种炒作以前也出现过，然后马斯克就让大家空等。2025年似乎又重演了这一老套路，就像多年前承诺的横跨美国的全自动驾驶演示一样，最终没有实现。最离谱的是，这本来只是一次“演示”，特斯拉本有几个月时间去实现，但仍未兑现。更夸张的是，现在外界知道这次演示与新Roadster跑车有关，而这款车本身已经连续跳票了5年。根据最新消息，马斯克已表态可能将演示推迟至2026年4月。4. 特斯拉Semi量产再度跳票特斯拉Semi卡车一直在延期。该公司曾官方明确将2025年定为其量产启动之年。然而随着年底临近，这一目标显然无法实现。2025年末，特斯拉确认这款电动卡车的量产时间再度推迟，这次被推迟至2026年。至少目前看起来，特斯拉Semi可能在2026年初量产，但考虑到这款车最初计划在2019年上市，外界最好不要抱太大希望。5.Optimus机器人军团马斯克曾设下雄心勃勃的目标：到2025年底，让“数千”台Optimus人形机器人在特斯拉工厂工作。他甚至提到，计划在2025年生产5000台至1万台Optimus机器人。虽然尚无官方数据，但没有任何证据表明特斯拉在2025年造出了数千台机器人，甚至可能连数百台都未达成。多份供应链报告指出，特斯拉已推迟Optimus项目进度，该公司至今尚未发布该机器人的最新版本。到目前为止，特斯拉仅展示了Optimus执行非常简单的任务，例如递送水瓶。即便是这些操作，它也依赖远程操控才能完成，而且成功率有限。(作者/箫雨)更多一手新闻，欢迎下载凤凰新闻客户端订阅凤凰网科技。想看深度报道，请微信搜索“凤凰网科技”。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; 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