存储价格飙升，IDC警告：2026年PC市场可能萎缩高达9%

华尔街见闻2025-12-31

周三，国际数据公司（IDC）最新发布的设备市场展望显示，受存储器价格飙升影响，2026年全球PC市场可能面临高达9%的萎缩。这一悲观预测远超该机构11月份预计的2.5%降幅，标志着行业前景急剧恶化。IDC指出，自去年10月中旬以来加速的全球存储器短缺已超出其最初模型预期。在中性情景下，PC出货量预计将下降5%，而悲观情景下降幅可能达到9%。虽然IDC尚未正式改写官方预测，但其最新情景分析明显比数周...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2595728852?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-12-31 08:02","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2595728852","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"存储价格飙升，IDC警告：2026年PC市场可能萎缩高达9%","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>周三，国际数据公司（IDC）最新发布的设备市场展望显示，受存储器价格飙升影响，2026年全球PC市场可能面临高达9%的萎缩。这一悲观预测远超该机构11月份预计的2.5%降幅，标志着行业前景急剧恶化。IDC指出，自去年10月中旬以来加速的全球存储器短缺已超出其最初模型预期。在中性情景下，PC出货量预计将下降5%，而悲观情景下降幅可能达到9%。虽然IDC尚未正式改写官方预测，但其最新情景分析明显比数周...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251231081522a48c0a46&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>存储价格飙升，IDC警告：2026年PC市场可能萎缩高达9%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n存储价格飙升，IDC警告：2026年PC市场可能萎缩高达9%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-31 08:02 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251231081522a48c0a46&s=b><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周三，国际数据公司（IDC）最新发布的设备市场展望显示，受存储器价格飙升影响，2026年全球PC市场可能面临高达9%的萎缩。这一悲观预测远超该机构11月份预计的2.5%降幅，标志着行业前景急剧恶化。IDC指出，自去年10月中旬以来加速的全球存储器短缺已超出其最初模型预期。在中性情景下，PC出货量预计将下降5%，而悲观情景下降幅可能达到9%。虽然IDC尚未正式改写官方预测，但其最新情景分析明显比数周...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251231081522a48c0a46&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"HK0000320223.HKD","symbol_name":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251231081522a48c0a46&s=b","article_id":"2595728852","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251231081522a48c0a46&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2595728852","pubTimestamp":1767139368,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"周三，国际数据公司最新发布的设备市场展望显示，受存储器价格飙升影响，2026年全球PC市场可能面临高达9%的萎缩。IDC警告称，手机厂商可能通过提价、降低配置或两者兼施来应对，这将逆转过去十年旗舰级存储配置下沉的趋势。在悲观情景下，2026年全球智能手机市场可能萎缩5%，同时平均售价上涨、换机周期延长。2009年全球金融危机期间，PC市场下降11.9%，创下当时历史最大降幅。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"80992":"联想集团-R","HK0000320223.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","00992":"联想集团","LU1267930227.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"AS\" (SGD) ACC A","LNVGY":"联想集团ADR","LU0572940350.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A3 SGD","LU1046422090.SGD":"Fidelity Pacific A-SGD","LU0128525689.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\"(USD) ACC","HK0000320264.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","HK0000306685.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU2242644610.SGD":"Fidelity China Innovation A-ACC-SGD","LU0052756011.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\" (USD) INC","BK1193":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","LU0264606111.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A2 USD","LU0310800965.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Balanced A Acc SGD","IE0032431581.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1366334651.USD":"ALLSPRING EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY INCOME \"I\" (USD) INC","IE0034224299.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0049112450.USD":"FIDELITY PACIFIC \"A\" INC","BK1526":"科网股","LU1366334578.USD":"ALLSPRING EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","HK0000306701.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) INC","BK1607":"新IT概念","LU0572939691.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A2 SGD","LU1235295612.USD":"FIDELITY PACIFIC \"A\" (USDHDG) INC","LU0791590937.USD":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKTES EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD)","LU0791591158.USD":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKTES EQUITY INCOME \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00B0JY6N72.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"translate_title":"Storage Prices Soar, IDC Warns: PC Market Could Shrink by Up to 9% in 2026","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"80992":0.6,"00992":0.9,"LNVGY":0.6},"content_text":"周三，国际数据公司（IDC）最新发布的设备市场展望显示，受存储器价格飙升影响，2026年全球PC市场可能面临高达9%的萎缩。这一悲观预测远超该机构11月份预计的2.5%降幅，标志着行业前景急剧恶化。IDC指出，自去年10月中旬以来加速的全球存储器短缺已超出其最初模型预期。在中性情景下，PC出货量预计将下降5%，而悲观情景下降幅可能达到9%。虽然IDC尚未正式改写官方预测，但其最新情景分析明显比数周前更为悲观。这场危机的根源在于AI基础设施需求激增。超大规模云服务商对存储器的需求大幅攀升，导致DRAM和NAND生产从消费设备转向高带宽内存和高密度DDR5等高利润率企业级组件。IDC强调，这不是典型的周期性波动，而是可能持续数年的硅产能战略性重新配置。对于PC行业而言，这场存储器短缺恰逢Windows 10停止支持和\"AI PC\"推广两大关键时期，使市场前景更加严峻。价格压力传导至终端市场随着DRAM和SSD成本攀升，PC厂商已开始发出广泛涨价信号。IDC估计，在悲观情景下，PC平均售价可能上涨6%至8%，而出货量可能同比下降近9%。这一预测较11月份已经偏负面的-2.4%预期大幅下调。智能手机市场同样面临压力。存储器在手机物料成本中占据重要份额，尤其是利润率本就微薄的中端机型。IDC警告称，手机厂商可能通过提价、降低配置或两者兼施来应对，这将逆转过去十年旗舰级存储配置下沉的趋势。在悲观情景下，2026年全球智能手机市场可能萎缩5%，同时平均售价上涨、换机周期延长。大厂优势凸显，小厂商承压IDC预计，戴尔、惠普、联想和华硕等大型OEM厂商凭借规模优势、库存杠杆和长期供应协议，将比小型厂商更好地应对这一环境。区域性小品牌、白牌组装商和DIY系统制造商面临的风险要大得多，尤其是在高存储配置为标配且成本敏感度高的游戏PC领域。这种动态可能进一步将市场份额推向主要OEM厂商，即使整体市场规模缩小。AI PC推广遭遇成本困境存储器短缺与AI PC推广形成了特殊的矛盾。IDC将AI PC定义为配备NPU的系统，但这些机器实际上也需要更多内存。微软Copilot+的要求就设定了16GB的最低门槛，许多高端设计更是瞄准32GB或更高配置。问题在于，存储器恰恰是当前最稀缺和昂贵的组件。更复杂的是，AI PC的营销推广并未带来厂商期望的增长。用户热情有限，对Windows 11中AI功能快速且往往强制集成的不满日益明显。在此背景下，AI PC的高价格看起来更像是对许多买家并未要求的功能征收的\"税收\"。历史性衰退风险浮现9%的降幅虽非灾难性，但已相当严重。2009年全球金融危机期间，PC市场下降11.9%，创下当时历史最大降幅。唯一更糟的情况发生在疫情后时期，当时市场因饱和度过高而下跌近15%，行业至今仍未完全恢复。更令人担忧的是，这次衰退发生在本应是增长大年的2026年。由于Windows 10支持终止和AI PC浪潮，市场原本应该迎来强劲增长。IDC的结论谨慎但明确：始于AI基础设施繁荣的趋势正以意想不到的方式重塑消费硬件市场。存储器稀缺正在收紧供应、推高价格，并迫使厂商在最不合时宜的时刻重新思考产品路线图。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2595728852","isCrawlerRequest":true}