2026年降息路径成加密市场关键变量，美联储分歧正日益加剧

Blockbeats2025-12-31

BlockBeats 消息，12 月 31 日，美联储 2025 年已三次降息，将利率降至 3.5%–3.75%，但仍处 18 年高位。最新点阵图显示官员对 2026 年利率路径严重分歧：对“零、一次或两次降息”看法几乎均分，市场不确定性上升。CME 数据显示，1 月降息概率仅 20%，3 月升至 45%。多数预测指向 2026 年或仅一次降息。分析人士认为，若就业转弱、通胀可控，年内或有 1–2...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2595574286?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-12-31 02:11","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2595574286","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"2026年降息路径成加密市场关键变量，美联储分歧正日益加剧","media":"Blockbeats","content":"<div>\n<p>BlockBeats 消息，12 月 31 日，美联储 2025 年已三次降息，将利率降至 3.5%–3.75%，但仍处 18 年高位。最新点阵图显示官员对 2026 年利率路径严重分歧：对“零、一次或两次降息”看法几乎均分，市场不确定性上升。CME 数据显示，1 月降息概率仅 20%，3 月升至 45%。多数预测指向 2026 年或仅一次降息。分析人士认为，若就业转弱、通胀可控，年内或有 1–2...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.theblockbeats.info//flash/326390\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"theblockbeats_zh_live","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2026年降息路径成加密市场关键变量，美联储分歧正日益加剧</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2026年降息路径成加密市场关键变量，美联储分歧正日益加剧\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-31 02:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.theblockbeats.info//flash/326390><strong>Blockbeats</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>BlockBeats 消息，12 月 31 日，美联储 2025 年已三次降息，将利率降至 3.5%–3.75%，但仍处 18 年高位。最新点阵图显示官员对 2026 年利率路径严重分歧：对“零、一次或两次降息”看法几乎均分，市场不确定性上升。CME 数据显示，1 月降息概率仅 20%，3 月升至 45%。多数预测指向 2026 年或仅一次降息。分析人士认为，若就业转弱、通胀可控，年内或有 1–2...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.theblockbeats.info//flash/326390\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"FT_SY_ES","symbol_name":"SP500指数","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.theblockbeats.info//flash/326390","article_id":"2595574286","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2595574286","pubTimestamp":1767118260,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"theblockbeats_zh_live","name":"blockbeat"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"BlockBeats 消息，12 月 31 日，美联储 2025 年已三次降息，将利率降至 3.5%–3.75%，但仍处 18 年高位。最新点阵图显示官员对 2026 年利率路径严重分歧：对“零、一次","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"theblockbeats.info","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"OEX":"标普100","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4588":"碎股","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"translate_title":"The path of interest rate cuts in 2026 has become a key variable in the encryption market, and the Fed is increasingly divided","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":0.6,"SPY":1.71,"SSO":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SH":0.6,".SPX":1.67,"UPRO":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"MESmain":0.6,"SDS":0.6},"content_text":"BlockBeats 消息，12 月 31 日，美联储 2025 年已三次降息，将利率降至 3.5%–3.75%，但仍处 18 年高位。最新点阵图显示官员对 2026 年利率路径严重分歧：对“零、一次或两次降息”看法几乎均分，市场不确定性上升。CME 数据显示，1 月降息概率仅 20%，3 月升至 45%。多数预测指向 2026 年或仅一次降息。分析人士认为，若就业转弱、通胀可控，年内或有 1–2 次降息，利好风险资产；反之若通胀反弹，降息与流动性支持或暂停，股市与加密市场承压。此外，鲍威尔 5 月卸任、潜在偏鸽派新主席，也被视为影响 2026 年加密市场的重要变量。","kind":"live","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":true,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2595574286","isCrawlerRequest":true}