中信建投：2026年汽车端侧AI投资展望

中信建投证券研究2025-12-30

文｜程似骐陶亦然陈怀山胡天贶崔世峰于伯韬我们看好26年特斯拉引领全球物理AI端侧（智能驾驶及机器人）变革，随着智驾端到端大模型率先跑通，公司有望进入新一轮加速成长周期，商业模式从硬件产品销售延伸至软件订阅及出行运营，25年Q4部署的FSD V14已达到准L4水平，Robotaxi即将无人规模化运营，FSD订阅率从12%加速提升，Optimus Gen3定型发布后开始规模量产，下一代AI5...

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Gen3定型发布后开始规模量产，下一代AI5/AI6端侧芯片性能跃升进一步加速物理AI能力迭代。我们认为2-3年内L3有条件/L4无人驾驶有望完成技术突破并加速普及，Robotaxi商业模式将跑通，产业价值链将向智驾解决方案提供商及流量出行平台商集中，看好具备软硬一体解决方案能力的主机厂及Tier1、出行平台及运营商、芯片等自主可控、激光雷达及线控底盘等增量零部件，主机厂科技属性有望重估。点击小程序查看报告原文AI产业链投资有望从算力基础设施、大模型逐步延伸到物理AI端，特斯拉引领商业化变革。汽车物理AI横跨无人驾驶及人形机器人两大数万亿级美元市场，特斯拉从23年Q4发布FSD V12全新智驾端到端大模型和Optimus Gen2人形机器人，历经2年技术/产品创新迭代将开启0-1商业化，26年Robotaxi将力争实现无人规模化运营，Optimus Gen3将首发并规模量产：1）FSD自动驾驶/Robotaxi：截至25Q3末，FSD累计行驶里程已接近100亿km，安全性是美国平均的5-8倍；10月已开始部署V14，12月底奥斯汀Robotaxi开始无安全员运营；26年4月低成本Robotaxi定制车型Cybercab将开始量产投放，FSD有望获批中国和欧洲全面本地化训练部署。25年特斯拉利润预计约50亿美元，我们测算30年FSD订阅及Robotaxi均有望分别贡献毛利超百亿美元。2）Optimus人形机器人：26Q1计划完成Gen3设计定型，下半年开始规模量产，全年产量目标5万台，产线规划年产能百万台。机器人大脑与智驾大模型技术路径同源，特斯拉具备芯片、软件算法等物理AI全栈自研自制能力，依托FSD大模型、xAI的Grok大语言模型、 Cortex强大算力资源等优势，Optimus的AI能力将占据领先身位并铸就更深护城河。26年智驾产业链投资重心从C端延伸到B端，从L2+辅助驾驶向L3有条件/L4无人驾驶突破开启商业化。25年Waymo及特斯拉的Robotaxi安全性已有官方验证，在旧金山等地网约车市场份额大幅提升，26年美国无人规模化运营政策或进一步宽松，特斯拉凭借FSD 泛化能力强、全栈自研自制低成本等优势有望快速扩张；下一代运营车型大幅降本。当前全球不同区域L3准入及Robotaxi政策宽松及商业化节奏虽有不确定性，但随着智驾技术向L3/L4进阶及企业加码，政策准入从运营测试走向规模商业化趋势清晰，美国、中东及中国一线城市有望率先跑通经济模型。万亿出行市场替代司机后的价值链及空间跃迁，智驾技术供应商、流量平台及运营商、增量零部件等环节均将受益。1、行业景气不及预期。2026年新能源乘用车购置税开始征收，国内政策扶持退坡预期下，宏观经济波动、消费者收入增长放缓等因素均会对汽车行业需求产生影响。2、行业竞争格局恶化。汽车电动智能化趋势下，国内整车厂和零部件供应商竞相布局，随着技术进步、新产能投放等供给要素变化，未来行业竞争或加剧，整车和零部件企业的市场份额及盈利能力或将有所波动。3、客户拓展及新项目量产进度不及预期。汽车电动智能化趋势下，现有整车和零部件供应链格局迎来重塑，获得新客户和新项目增量的零部件公司有望受益，而部分零部件公司市场份额可能受到影响。4、物理AI技术迭代放缓。无论是无人驾驶还是人形机器人商业化落地进展，都依赖AI的持续发展完善，如果AI发展放缓甚至出现停滞，那么将影响产业化进程。5、道德伦理及监管风险。无人驾驶和人形机器人的发展目标之一是通过智能化技术替代人工劳动力，可能会引发社会伦理及民生就业问题，需要提前加以干预和设定；全球Robotaxi规模商业化政策准入存在低预期风险。程似骐：汽车行业首席分析师，上海交通大学车辆工程硕士，师从发动机所所长，曾任职于东吴证券、国盛证券，四年证券行业研究经验。2017年新财富第二团队核心成员，2020年新浪财经新锐分析师第一名，2020年金牛最佳汽车行业分析师团队第五名。深度覆盖新能源整车，智能化零部件，把握智能化电动化浪潮，对智能驾驶全产业链最前沿研究，深度跟踪从产业链最上游车载芯片到下游最前沿的L4 的商业模式前沿演变。 2021年新财富最佳分析师汽车行业第四名。陶亦然：汽车行业联席首席分析师。曾任银河证券汽车分析师，2018年加入中信建投汽车团队，2018/19年万得金牌分析师团队核心成员，2019/20年新浪财经新锐分析师团队核心成员, 2020年金牛最佳行业分析团队核心成员，2021/22年新财富、水晶球最佳分析师团队核心成员。陈怀山：汽车行业分析师，上海交通大学机械工程硕士。曾任职于长江证券研究所，五年证券行业研究经验，2017-2019年电力设备与新能源行业新财富第一团队成员。2021年加入中信建投证券，2022年汽车及零部件行业新财富第四名团队成员，对新能源车、零部件及整车等均有研究。胡天贶：中国人民大学经济学硕士，华中科技大学经济统计学学士，2021年加入中信建投证券。2021年新财富、水晶球团队成员，2022年新财富、水晶球、金牛奖团队成员。崔世峰：海外研究首席分析师，南京大学硕士，8 年买方及卖方复合从业经历，专注于互联网及科技龙头公司研究。2024 新财富海外市场研究第五名；2022-2023 年新财富港股及海外最佳研究团队入围；2019-2020 年新财富传媒最佳研究团队第二名核心成员。于伯韬：海外研究分析师，FRM，香港大学金融学硕士，2020 年加入中信建投海外研究团队，2018-2020 年就职于长江证券研究所海外团队，2024/2021/2020 年新财富港股及海外方向第五名，2022 年新浪金麒麟港股及海外市场最佳分析师第三名，2020 年新浪金麒麟港股及海外市场新锐分析师第一名。证券研究报告名称：《乘用车:特斯拉引领物理AI产业变革，无人驾驶价值链及空间跃迁——2026年汽车端侧AI投资展望》对外发布时间：2025年12月29日报告发布机构：中信建投证券股份有限公司本报告分析师：程似骐 SAC 编号:S1440520070001SFC 编号:BQR089陶亦然 SAC 编号:S1440518060002陈怀山 SAC 编号:S1440521110006胡天贶 SAC 编号:S1440523070010崔世峰 SAC 编号:S1440521100004SFC 编号:BUI663于伯韬 SAC 编号：S1440520110001SFC 编号:BRR519近期热门视频更多精彩视频，尽在中信建投证券研究视频号，欢迎关注~重要提示及","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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