中信证券：港股保险业绩加速估值空间有望进一步打开

智通财经2025-12-29

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，港股保险今年表现随行就市，但基本面显著优于市场整体；且无论是在金融板块内还是红利资产框架下比较，轮动空间存在显著机遇。虽然港股保险相较A股今年已有明显超额收益，但无论是静态对比还是结合盈利能力回归，港股中资保险的估值修复仍大有可为，尤其在这轮修复行情中仍尚未充分计价盈利能力改善，继续提供港股中资保险表现的空间。周期视角来看，保险公司正步入资产负债表良性扩张...

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opened","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"82318":0.6,"600030":1.5,"601318":0.6,"PAImain":0.6,"02628":0.9,"02318":0.9,"06030":1.5,"03145":0.6,"01336":0.9,"PNGAY":0.6,"HPAD.SI":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，港股保险今年表现随行就市，但基本面显著优于市场整体；且无论是在金融板块内还是红利资产框架下比较，轮动空间存在显著机遇。虽然港股保险相较A股今年已有明显超额收益，但无论是静态对比还是结合盈利能力回归，港股中资保险的估值修复仍大有可为，尤其在这轮修复行情中仍尚未充分计价盈利能力改善，继续提供港股中资保险表现的空间。周期视角来看，保险公司正步入资产负债表良性扩张阶段，政策端反内卷助力降本增效，产品端分红险转型降低经营压力，渠道端银保渠道推动储蓄存款持续转化，投资端增配权益提升市场定价权，保险股料将开启新一轮上行周期。中信证券主要观点如下：港股保险业绩加速，轮动空间存机遇。相较港股今年主要靠估值扩张驱动的行情，港股保险行情具备明确的基本面支撑，截至2025年12月12日，2025年的盈利预期相较今年3月中上调了37.5%，同期恒生综指25Y盈利预期下调3.5%；2026年港股保险的盈利预期则相较8月初上调了17.1%，同期恒生综指在材料与保险贡献下的26Y盈利预期企稳。但港股保险全年的估值修复明显不及市场整体。在金融板块内比较，港股保险在2023年往后持续跑输券商与银行；估值修复不及金融板块整体外，红利属性的能源与公用事业在业绩预期承压的同时估值仍再逼高位，反观保险的动态市净率尚未修复至2023年初水平，体现保险股不止在金融行业内存在轮动机会，从市场比较视角也存在明显机遇。盈利为支撑，港股中资保险估值空间有望进一步打开。今年截至12月19日，港股保险已较A股保险跑出22个百分点的超额，A/H溢价率也从2024年年底的62%收窄至30%。但港股保险当前的估值与自身历史相比仍处低位，估值上修具备较强确定性。港股保险的MRQ市净率（整体法）目前来到1.31倍，仍处于2011年以来31.2%的分位。而保险公司动态ROE持续上行，是今年保险公司PB修复的主要动力。PB-ROE视角（流通市值加权）下，当前港股保险1.65倍的动态PB与16.4%的动态ROE仍显著高于过去15年的回归线之上。细化到个股，中资保险公司是港股保险业绩预期上行的重要推手，保险周期向好作为支撑，中资保险公司或具备较高估值性价比。虽然中资保险公司当前A/H溢价率已大幅缩减，但随着南向资金持仓比例上行，以及流动性的修复，H股折价要素或逐渐缓解。资产负债向好，保险股开启新一轮上行周期。2024年以来，保险公司净资产恢复快速增长，资产负债表恢复较快扩张趋势，正步入良性循环的新周期。政策端，严监管措施分利差与费差两大维度持续推进，预定利率连续下调压降保险公司负债成本，“报行合一”全渠道落地引导行业弱化费用竞争；产品端，分红险转型成效显著，提升保险公司资产负债匹配效果和盈利确定性；渠道端，储蓄存款大量到期，叠加低利率环境下保险产品收益率具备比较优势，推动银保渠道保费恢复较快增长；投资端，保险公司持续增配权益，提升中长期收益水平，强化贝塔属性。投资策略：重点关注保险板块阿尔法机会。考虑到2025年贝塔逻辑已经极致演绎，部分公司面临高基数下业绩回落压力，进而压制估值修复节奏，我们认为2026年需重点关注板块景气回升下的阿尔法机会，以及具备较大估值修复空间的优质品种。风险因素：长端利率大幅下行；股市大幅波动；保单销售不及预期；代理人队伍继续脱落；银保渠道增长不及预期。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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中信证券：港股保险业绩加速 估值空间有望进一步打开

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中信证券：港股保险业绩加速估值空间有望进一步打开