财报盘点| 宁愿透支当下的利润，阿里巴巴也要为AI和即时零售撕开一道口子

刘旷频道2025-12-29

对于2025年的阿里巴巴来说，在外卖市场和AI赛道风云变幻的局势下，阿里巴巴的战略重心也在无形之中发生了调整。这种变化，尤其是在阿里巴巴在2026财年第二季度（对应自然年2025年7月-9月）能找到答案。为了抓住AI和即时零售这两个未来的机会，阿里正在进行一场豪赌式的巨额投入，这直接导致了利润的大幅下滑。利润“腰斩”这一季度，阿里的营收虽然实现了增长，但赚钱的能力却因为战略投入而被大幅稀释。从总...

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Acc"},"translate_title":"Financial report inventory | Rather overdraw current profits, Alibaba also wants to open a hole for AI and instant retail","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"89988":0.6,"BABA":1.97,"HBBD.SI":0.6,"09988":1.97,"ALBmain":0.6},"content_text":"对于2025年的阿里巴巴来说，在外卖市场和AI赛道风云变幻的局势下，阿里巴巴的战略重心也在无形之中发生了调整。这种变化，尤其是在阿里巴巴在2026财年第二季度（对应自然年2025年7月-9月）能找到答案。为了抓住AI和即时零售这两个未来的机会，阿里正在进行一场豪赌式的巨额投入，这直接导致了利润的大幅下滑。利润“腰斩”这一季度，阿里的营收虽然实现了增长，但赚钱的能力却因为战略投入而被大幅稀释。从总营收来看，阿里巴巴在这一财季实现了2478亿元的营收，同比增长5%。如果剔除已出售的高鑫零售和银泰业务，同口径下的收入增速高达15%，说明核心业务其实恢复得不错。不过阿里巴巴的净利润206.1亿元，同比大幅下滑53%，经营利润更是下滑到了53.7亿元，同比暴跌85%。真正让投资者出现担忧的还不是净利润，比起净利润，自由现金流才是衡量一家公司生存能力的终极指标。本季度阿里巴巴自由现金流为-218.4亿元，这是阿里自由现金流首次大额净流出，去年同期还是净流入137.35亿元。这意味着什么？阿里巴巴不仅把这季度赚的钱全花出去了，还倒贴了近200亿的家底。这种“入不敷出”的状态，如果持续超过一年，就会动摇投资者的持股信心。当然，利润出现大幅下滑，倒不是因为生意做不下去了。两场“豪赌”正在吞噬利润很多人误以为阿里利润下滑是因为电商卖不动了，其实恰恰相反。淘天集团的客户管理收入（CMR）同比增长了10%，变现率也在提升，这说明电商主业依然是极其赚钱的“现金奶牛”。为什么利润跌得这么狠？因为阿里正在同时打两场硬仗，这两块业务目前都是“烧钱”换增长的阶段。阿里巴巴通过“淘宝闪购”全力切入外卖和即时零售市场，试图补齐“近场电商”的短板。本季度销售费用激增，主要是因为7、8月份为了争夺市场，进行了大规模的运力投资和补贴。但效果也是立竿见影的，即时零售业务收入同比增长了60%，达到229亿元。管理层表示，三季度是投入的高点，随着规模效应起来，四季度的投入力度会显著收缩，单均亏损已经在降低。另一个吞噬利润的就是AI+云计算业务了。阿里把AI视为未来十年的核心驱动力，正在疯狂砸钱建设基础设施，过去四个季度，阿里在AI和云基础设施上的投入约1200亿元。对于阿里的AI投入，市场一直有质疑声：是不是在搞“面子工程”？不过，阿里云的收入同比增长了34%，创下三年来最高增速，AI相关产品收入更是创下了连续9个季度三位数增长的新纪录。此外，阿里阿里巴巴CEO吴泳铭透露了一个细节：“云服务在手积压订单数量还在持续扩大，AI服务器上架节奏跟不上客户订单增长。”这说明市场对算力是有真实需求的，阿里不是在盲目烧钱，而是在抢购紧缺的战略资源。这更像是一场“供给侧”的扩张。家底依然殷实由于巨额投入，阿里巴巴经营活动产生的现金流净额同比下降了68%，自由现金流甚至出现了净流出。不过，我们透过财报来看阿里巴巴各个业务板块的表现，可以看出它依然还是比较稳。先来看阿里云板块，该财季实现了398.2亿的收入，同比增长了34%。最大亮点是AI需求旺盛，不仅是增长引擎，也是未来转型科技公司的基石。国内电商业务，依然实现了1325.8亿的收入，同比增长了16%。这说明阿里巴巴的基本盘依然稳固，变现率提升，全站推广工具生效，但被即时零售的亏损拖累了整体利润。国际业务板块，也实现了348亿的营收，同比增长了10%。最重要的是国际业务开始扭亏为盈，阿里巴巴的国际业务通过优化物流和效率，经调整EBITA实现盈利，不再是拖油瓶。其他业务板块，菜鸟、大文娱等板块收入有所下滑。因为受到剥离业务的影响，其他业务整体收入629.7亿，同比下滑25%。真正能体现阿里巴巴稳的是，它手上的现金及流动投资仍有5738.9亿元，这意味着阿里有足够的“弹药”来支撑这场转型之战，短期偿债压力不大。这是一份“为了未来牺牲当下”的财报短期来看，阿里正处于转型的“至暗时刻”。利润表很难看，因为所有的钱都拿去投AI和外卖了。如果你看重当下的分红和利润，这份财报可能会让你失望。在这份财报背后，阿里巴巴管理层也传递了两个非常微妙的信号。信号一：“快商务（闪购）的投入是阶段性的，下个季度会显著收缩。” —— 这是在告诉投资人：别慌，我们只是暂时“失血”，很快就会止血。信号二：“3800亿的投资可能不够，未来可能进一步增投。” —— 这是在告诉市场：别想让我停下对AI业务的长期投入。因此，长期来看，阿里正在试图从一个“电商公司”蜕变为“AI+消费”的科技巨头。阿里云+AI是新的增长极，增速34%证明了其技术变现能力；即时零售是为了防止在本地生活领域掉队，虽然现在亏钱，但必须拿下。只要阿里云的增速能维持在30%以上，且即时零售的亏损没有失控，熬过这段“烧钱期”，阿里的估值逻辑将从“电商股”重估为“科技股”。#阿里巴巴#阿里云#AI#淘宝闪购#淘宝","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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