钉钉 All in AI 硬件，2026行业“三国杀”或变天？

博望财经2025-12-30

文|海山来源|博望财经12月26日，钉钉携刚刚发布的AI钉钉1.1落地上海市金山区。由此放大来看，我们判断，不仅办公产品本身，AI硬件也将会在2026年集中大爆发。据此前多家媒体报道，阿里巴巴旗下智能办公平台钉钉启动一项代号为“D计划”的秘密项目，或涉足AI硬件领域。而“D计划”这一昵称近期在钉钉内部及供应链相关人士中流传，被猜测将推出类似“豆包手机”的产品。不过，对于外界热议的“豆包手机”传闻及...

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world?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"89988":0.6,"ALBmain":0.6,"BABA":1.92,"09988":1.92,"HBBD.SI":0.6},"content_text":"文|海山来源|博望财经12月26日，钉钉携刚刚发布的AI钉钉1.1落地上海市金山区。由此放大来看，我们判断，不仅办公产品本身，AI硬件也将会在2026年集中大爆发。据此前多家媒体报道，阿里巴巴旗下智能办公平台钉钉启动一项代号为“D计划”的秘密项目，或涉足AI硬件领域。而“D计划”这一昵称近期在钉钉内部及供应链相关人士中流传，被猜测将推出类似“豆包手机”的产品。不过，对于外界热议的“豆包手机”传闻及“D计划”的具体所指，钉钉官方曾回应称“‘豆包手机’听说了，‘D计划’没听说。公司内部确实对部分创新项目的保密等级要求非常高。”但作为一个办公平台，钉钉也日渐在延伸边界，试图提供更多的服务。01钉钉也有“对手”在中国企业数字化转型的浪潮中，钉钉是无可争议的标杆性存在。它曾凭借阿里生态的强大资源背书与先发布局优势，此前陈航带领团队在协同办公赛道迅速突围，短短数年便实现用户数破3亿的壮举，成为现象级企业服务产品，长期占据市场主导地位。但如今，这场独角戏早已演变为三足鼎立的新格局。随着飞书、企业微信的精准发力与持续迭代，市场竞争维度不断丰富，曾经的格局也在变化。最简单的逻辑是，竞争对手变得多起来了。例如，公开数据显示，2025年中国协同办公市场规模成功突破300亿元，钉钉、企业微信与飞书三大巨头合计占据超75%的市场份额，形成寡头竞争态势。其中钉钉以32.7%的份额仍居首位，但企业微信（23.4%）与飞书（18.9%）的紧追不舍，已让其领先优势大幅收窄，昔日一家独大的局面不复存在。公开资料显示，早在今年8月时，钉钉平台上的企业组织数突破2600万，付费组织数超19万，A股5191家上市公司中79%均为其用户，钉钉上的AI应用数达到141万。对比下来，回溯2022年底，钉钉的企业组织数就已达到2300万，这意味着三年间有新增300万多，增长率为13%。那其他家表现如何呢？飞书与企业微信的确在追赶，尤其是飞书，凭借“先进团队，先用飞书”的精准定位，聚焦高价值头部企业市场，尽管飞书的企业组织数量与钉钉仍有较大差距，但商业化能力的确不可忽视。“飞书多维表格比钉钉领先至少12个月。”今年7月，飞书CEO谢欣在采访时直言道。即便这句话可能是单方面的观点，但这一市场变化的背后，大概率也是企业协同需求的深度升级。至少在当下不少企业的真实场景需求里，今企业不再满足于基础的沟通协作功能，而是更看重个性化定制、智能化工具集成与数据安全保障等核心价值。例如，物流运输企业，需要一个高效协助处理包裹、运输、揽件、品类SKU状态等复杂场景的平台。相应地，竞争对手们也有自己的优势，飞书凭借流畅的协作体验与文档协同优势俘获创新型企业，企业微信依托微信生态实现公私域联动的独特价值。直至当下，钉钉在巩固传统优势场景的同时，日渐应对用户对功能创新与体验升级的多重诉求。我们判断，协同办公市场的竞争已进入精细化运营的深水区，三大巨头的格局是否会进一步洗牌，仍有待市场检验。02办公场景下的硬件野心在新的竞争压力下，实际上钉钉也确实在试图打开新的边界。实际上，钉钉早在2025年8月十周年发布会上就展示了向AI硬件领域延伸的野心，推出了AI硬件DingTalk A1录音卡片，主打会议场景的语音转写与知识沉淀功能。据了解，该产品通过5颗全向麦克风与骨传导技术，实现了8米内声音的高精度采集，并配备1000分钟免费转写时长，试图以“无感交互”降低AI使用门槛。到了日前，钉钉又正式推出其宣称的“全球首个为AI打造的工作智能操作系统”——Agent OS。此举被普遍解读为钉钉从移动互联网时代的协同办公应用，向AI时代底层基础设施的战略性跃迁。为此，钉钉创始人兼CEO陈航（花名：无招）表示，8月份的1.0版本是AI钉钉的第一步，现在我们可以宣布，钉钉彻底变了，转型为AI操作系统，这是一个AI时代的产品应该有的样子。而其发布了“AI的身体”硬件DingTalk Real，让AI Agent真正能在企业环境中安全、可信地执行任务。陈航认为，“以前人是做执行思考主体，AI只是辅助；新一代钉钉的本质是让AI成为主体，拥有近乎无穷的记忆和全局计算能力，能够主动感知、判断、规划、执行，人则退后一步，成为决策者和指挥官，基于AI产出的结果进行关键判断。”我们可以理解，至此钉钉形成了完整的AI系统架构，率先搭建起大模型为底座、硬件为入口、企业级AI Agent为出口的完整闭环，这无疑是行业等待已久的时刻。而钉钉的首款AI硬件—DingTalk A1可以被视为钉钉Agent OS在物理世界的关键延伸，理论上，DingTalk Real这个终端像是为Agent而生。03AI硬件将迎来大厂厮杀时代放大到行业，开始发力AI硬件的还有很多大厂，从AI手机硬件到AI眼镜再到诸如上文所讲的AI办公硬件。巨头几乎都在扎堆下场。办公层面，随着企业数字化进入深水区，单纯的线上协作工具已无法满足全场景效率提升需求，硬件作为物理世界与数字世界的连接枢纽，成为大厂争夺的新制高点，一场围绕办公AI硬件的行业厮杀正悄然拉开序幕。加之当前，办公AI硬件赛道已呈现多玩家入局、多品类布局的竞争态势。除钉钉外，不少企业通过开放接口与第三方硬件厂商合作，将文档协同、任务管理等核心功能嵌入智能办公本、会议终端等产品，构建起“软件+硬件”的协同生态。此外，手机厂商科技巨头凭借硬件制造优势，也在智能办公硬件领域持续发力，通过鸿蒙系统、MIUI生态的加持，与办公软件形成跨界联动，进一步加剧市场竞争。往深入看，AI硬件的竞争核心已聚焦于“端云协同”能力与场景化解决方案。尤其是语音识别精度、多模态交互体验、数据安全防护、跨设备协同效率等技术指标，将成为区分产品竞争力的关键，而具备自主大模型训练能力、硬件研发实力与企业服务经验的厂商，将在竞争中占据先发优势。这就把行业竞争向细分场景深度渗透。以办公为例，会议录音转写场景，智能考勤、远程协作、数据采集、智能客服等细分领域都将成为硬件创新的主战场。例如，物流企业需要集成AI识别功能的货物盘点硬件，制造企业需要适配车间场景的工业级协同终端，金融机构则对具备高安全等级的智能办公设备需求迫切。大厂将通过精准卡位细分场景，推出定制化硬件产品，形成差异化竞争优势，而中小厂商可能因技术壁垒与生态劣势，逐渐被市场淘汰，行业集中度将进一步提升。不过值得注意的是，数据安全与隐私保护将成为AI硬件竞争的重要底线。办公硬件作为企业数据的重要采集入口，涉及大量商业机密与员工信息，其安全性直接影响企业的选择决策。未来，具备端侧加密、数据脱敏、合规认证等安全能力的厂商，将更易获得市场信任，而安全技术的研发投入也将成为大厂竞争的核心成本之一。回过头来看，我们判断，谁能率先实现技术突破与场景落地的深度融合，谁就能在这场AI硬件厮杀中脱颖而出，重塑行业规则。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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