特斯拉4680电池黄了！曾毓群早告诉过马斯克：永远不会成功

智能车参考2025-12-30

彼时合同一签订，外界多数声音都认为两家合作会逐渐深入。L&F甚至还曾为这个订单调整了生产计划，加大了高镍正极材料的产能投入。不料两年过去，合作已发生巨变：L&F披露，到今年年底，合同金额已被削减到973万韩元，折合人民币大约是4.7万元。你没看错，从203亿元降到了4.7万元，大幅缩水99.99%，几乎归零。L&F没有在公告中解释金额暴降的具体原因，只提及“供应量发生变化”，不过这句话的信息量已经...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251230171727a6e0ab78&s=b><strong>智能车参考</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>彼时合同一签订，外界多数声音都认为两家合作会逐渐深入。L&F甚至还曾为这个订单调整了生产计划，加大了高镍正极材料的产能投入。不料两年过去，合作已发生巨变：L&F披露，到今年年底，合同金额已被削减到973万韩元，折合人民币大约是4.7万元。你没看错，从203亿元降到了4.7万元，大幅缩水99.99%，几乎归零。L&F没有在公告中解释金额暴降的具体原因，只提及“供应量发生变化”，不过这句话的信息量已经...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251230171727a6e0ab78&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1066051498.USD","symbol_name":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) 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Zeng Yuqun told Musk earlier: It will never succeed","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.96,"TSYW.SI":0.6,"UFO":0.6},"content_text":"彼时合同一签订，外界多数声音都认为两家合作会逐渐深入。L&F甚至还曾为这个订单调整了生产计划，加大了高镍正极材料的产能投入。不料两年过去，合作已发生巨变：L&F披露，到今年年底，合同金额已被削减到973万韩元，折合人民币大约是4.7万元。你没看错，从203亿元降到了4.7万元，大幅缩水99.99%，几乎归零。L&F没有在公告中解释金额暴降的具体原因，只提及“供应量发生变化”，不过这句话的信息量已经足够琢磨出背后深意来了。供应量不足，指向的是4680电池产量不及预期，而4680电池目前只为特斯拉Cybertruck提供，继而映射的就是Cybertruck的销量走弱。马斯克曾对这款皮卡寄予厚望，预测其年销量能达到几十万到上百万辆，然而现实却与之大相径庭。市场估算Cybertruck在2024年的销量大约在3.5万~5万辆，平均每季度大约为8750~12000辆。今年更是不增反降，据估计二、三季度销量分别为4300辆和5400辆，同比降幅都在50%以上，离百万年销相去甚远。不过，马斯克能喊出百万年销的目标倒也不奇怪，这款纯电皮卡在2019年亮相后，确实曾备受关注和期待，特斯拉称累计获得超过100万个预订单。但2023年真正推出的量产版，价格是之前公布价格的两倍，续航里程却比之前公布的要短，才导致需求骤然遇冷。尽管今年特斯拉为Cybertruck提供了免息贷款，相当于给出1万美元（约7万元）的折扣，依然没能明显提振销量，甚至入门级Cybertruck还停产了。这就导致L&F原本计划供应的材料没有用武之地，L&F在声明中无奈表示：合同修订是必然之举，需根据全球电动汽车市场及电池供应格局的变化调整。4680电池，崩了吗？特斯拉五年磨一剑的电池，早被曾毓群“判死刑”4680电池的推出，是特斯拉降低汽车生产成本的重要一环。马斯克早在2020年就提出了这个自造电池计划，希望能借此提高车辆续航里程和功率，同时降低成本。以尺寸命名的大尺寸圆柱电芯——4680电池项目由此诞生，电池直径46mm，高80mm。因为比传统的18650电池和2170电池尺寸更大，所以4680电池理论上可以实现更高的能量密度和热管理效率。按照马斯克的设想，4680电池日后将推广在特斯拉所有车型上……不过时间过去5年多，批量上车的只有Cybertruck。这些年，几乎每次财报季，马斯克都会提到4680电池，就在上次Q3财报电话会上，马斯克还透露这款特斯拉最有成本竞争力的电芯，“之后会向外部企业提供”。不过每次挤牙膏般地更新进展，总是感觉“快了快了”，但始终没有真正迈过门槛。究竟是什么原因，让4680电池一再跳票？从技术路线或许能解释一二：首先是4680采用的无极耳设计，顾名思义，取消了传统电池的极耳结构。这其实是为大电芯量身定做的设计，通过正负极集流体与盖板/壳体的直连缩短电流传导路径，电芯的整个端面都相当于极耳。电流路径变得更短、更宽，很大程度上降低了内阻，发热也更少，在不牺牲电池循环寿命的情况下快充倍率更高。而且整个电池包的体积和重量也得到优化，能给车身留出更大的空间。但难题在于，这一工艺对激光焊接工序的精度要求极高，焊接量大幅增加，激光强度、焦距的控制难度骤升，更容易出现焊穿（烧到电池内部）或者焊不全（接触不良）的问题，直接影响电池的良品率。还有一个更大的难题，是曾被马斯克亲口承认的挑战——干电极工艺，这原本是电池实现降本的重中之重。干电极工艺的本质，是用干粉代替湿浆料来制造电池极片，和传统湿法工艺相比，跳过了“湿混合”和“高温烘干”两个步骤，能省掉溶剂成本、烘干能耗，还能简化产线。由于极片是干粉直接压实的，孔隙率更低，活性材料占比能更高，能量密度也会更高。而且干电极工艺的好处是全链路的，越规模化，优势越明显。但是实现起来的难度也远超想象，核心是两个技术卡点：一个是干粉混合均匀性差，没有溶剂润滑，活性材料的均匀分散难度极大。正极的三元锂、负极的石墨和粘结剂很难混合均匀，一旦混合不均，极片就会出现厚薄不一，导致电池一致性差，充电时发热不均，甚至引发热失控。另一个就是极片附着力不足。湿法的浆料，能和集流体粘得很牢，而干电极的干粉靠机械力碾压，附着力天生就弱，极片在充放电循环中容易脱落，进而影响电池寿命。这就导致4680的技术路线看起来非常有前景，但实现起来难度极高。良品率始终达不到预期，大批量生产只会更拉低良品率，更别说用在特斯拉的主力车型上了。其实宁德时代董事长曾毓群，之前就曾当面告诉过马斯克：“4680电池将会失败，永远不会成功。”据曾毓群回忆当时的场景，自己曾和马斯克当面辩论了一场，解释了为什么圆柱形电池不可行。“因为马斯克擅长的是芯片、软件、硬件和机械，但这是电化学领域，他不知道如何制造电池。”而马斯克听完，陷入沉默。—联系作者——完—【智能车参考】原创内容，未经账号授权，禁止随意转载。点这里关注我，记得标星，么么哒～","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-2","news_tag":"productRelease","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2595279828","isCrawlerRequest":true}