2026年汽车端侧AI投资展望：特斯拉引领物理AI产业变革无人驾驶价值链及空间跃迁

中信建投证券2025-12-29

我们看好26年特斯拉引领全球物理AI端侧（智能驾驶及机器人）变革，随着智驾端到端大模型率先跑通，公司有望进入新一轮加速成长周期，商业模式从硬件产品销售延伸至软件订阅及出行运营，25年Q4部署的FSD V14已达到准L4水平，Robotaxi即将无人规模化运营，FSD订阅率从12%加速提升，Optimus Gen3定型发布后开始规模量产，下一代AI5/AI6端侧芯片性能跃升进一步加速物理AI能力迭代...

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HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC"},"translate_title":"Automotive end-side AI investment outlook in 2026: Tesla leads the transformation of the physical AI industry, the autonomous driving value chain and spatial transition","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSYW.SI":0.6,"XPEV":0.9,"TSLA":1.98,"02525":0.9},"content_text":"我们看好26年特斯拉引领全球物理AI端侧（智能驾驶及机器人）变革，随着智驾端到端大模型率先跑通，公司有望进入新一轮加速成长周期，商业模式从硬件产品销售延伸至软件订阅及出行运营，25年Q4部署的FSD V14已达到准L4水平，Robotaxi即将无人规模化运营，FSD订阅率从12%加速提升，Optimus Gen3定型发布后开始规模量产，下一代AI5/AI6端侧芯片性能跃升进一步加速物理AI能力迭代。我们认为2-3年内L3有条件/L4无人驾驶有望完成技术突破并加速普及，Robotaxi商业模式将跑通，产业价值链将向智驾解决方案提供商及流量出行平台商集中，看好具备软硬一体解决方案能力的主机厂及Tier1、出行平台及运营商、芯片等自主可控、激光雷达及线控底盘等增量零部件，主机厂科技属性有望重估。AI产业链投资有望从算力基础设施、大模型逐步延伸到物理AI端，特斯拉引领商业化变革。汽车物理AI横跨无人驾驶及人形机器人两大数万亿级美元市场，特斯拉从23年Q4发布FSD V12全新智驾端到端大模型和Optimus Gen2人形机器人，历经2年技术/产品创新迭代将开启0-1商业化，26年Robotaxi将力争实现无人规模化运营，Optimus Gen3将首发并规模量产：1）FSD自动驾驶/Robotaxi：截至25Q3末，FSD累计行驶里程已接近100亿km，安全性是美国平均的5-8倍；10月已开始部署V14，12月底奥斯汀Robotaxi开始无安全员运营；26年4月低成本Robotaxi定制车型Cybercab将开始量产投放，FSD有望获批中国和欧洲全面本地化训练部署。25年特斯拉利润预计约50亿美元，我们测算30年FSD订阅及Robotaxi均有望分别贡献毛利超百亿美元。2）Optimus人形机器人：26Q1计划完成Gen3设计定型，下半年开始规模量产，全年产量目标5万台，产线规划年产能百万台。机器人大脑与智驾大模型技术路径同源，特斯拉具备芯片、软件算法等物理AI全栈自研自制能力，依托FSD大模型、xAI的Grok大语言模型、Cortex强大算力资源等优势，Optimus的AI能力将占据领先身位并铸就更深护城河。26年智驾产业链投资重心从C端延伸到B端，从L2+辅助驾驶向L3有条件/L4无人驾驶突破开启商业化。25年Waymo及特斯拉的Robotaxi安全性已有官方验证，在旧金山等地网约车市场份额大幅提升，26年美国无人规模化运营政策或进一步宽松，特斯拉凭借FSD 泛化能力强、全栈自研自制低成本等优势有望快速扩张；25年下半年国内L2+玩家小鹏、地平线等开始布局Robotaxi市场，26年传统L4玩家小马智行、文远知行、萝卜快跑、滴滴出行等均规划了千台以上车队运营目标，下一代运营车型大幅降本。当前全球不同区域L3准入及Robotaxi政策宽松及商业化节奏虽有不确定性，但随着智驾技术向L3/L4进阶及企业加码，政策准入从运营测试走向规模商业化趋势清晰，美国、中东及中国一线城市有望率先跑通经济模型。万亿出行市场替代司机后的价值链及空间跃迁，智驾技术供应商、流量平台及运营商、增量零部件等环节均将受益，产业链受益标的包括：特斯拉、地平线、小鹏汽车、滴滴出行、小马智行、文远知行、千里科技、曹操出行、禾赛、伯特利、耐世特等，本篇报告我们研究了物理AI的技术演变、智驾及Robotaxi产业边际变化、商业模型及价值链，深度复盘了特斯拉、地平线及小鹏等标的股价、投资空间及催化节点展望。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"2","news_tag":"corporation","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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2026年汽车端侧AI投资展望：特斯拉引领物理AI产业变革 无人驾驶价值链及空间跃迁

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2026年汽车端侧AI投资展望：特斯拉引领物理AI产业变革无人驾驶价值链及空间跃迁