2025年的外卖大战，一场“意义不对等”的巨头消耗战

砺石商业评论2025-12-29

由外卖点燃、蔓延至整个即时零售的战争，注定是一场漫长而艰巨的消耗。雅萱| 文叶锦言| 编辑深网·腾讯新闻| 来源2025年的午后，写字楼下的奶茶店排起长队，骑手在街巷间穿梭得比往常更急。用户的冰箱里塞满了喝不完的“9.9元咖啡”，商家后台不断弹出新的补贴提示——一场本已沉寂的外卖战争，正以千亿规模的补贴，在街头巷尾无声重燃。这一次，美团的对手不再是单一的挑战者。阿里巴巴整合饿了么、天猫超市与淘宝...

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来源2025年的午后，写字楼下的奶茶店排起长队，骑手在街巷间穿梭得比往常更急。用户的冰箱里塞满了喝不完的“9.9元咖啡”，商家后台不断弹出新的补贴提示——一场本已沉寂的外卖战争，正以千亿规模的补贴，在街头巷尾无声重燃。这一次，美团的对手不再是单一的挑战者。阿里巴巴整合饿了么、天猫超市与淘宝流量，发起代号“淮海战役”的闪购总攻；京东则以百亿补贴高调破局。两者将战火直接烧向美团的核心腹地。然而，对于曾历经“千团大战”、击退过无数对手的美团而言，这对其而言不再是一场关于增长的竞赛，而是一场关于生存的保卫战。财务数据直观地揭示了这场战争的惨烈：过去半年，美团遭遇上市以来最大单季亏损；阿里核心电商利润大幅缩水；京东亦连续两季度录得经营亏损。利润下滑甚至亏损，并未让这场外卖大战停止。这场“战事”对美团、京东、阿里的意义截然不同。对京东和阿里，即时零售是主业的延伸与补充；但对美团，这是不能退让的核心战场。即便历经千团大战、两度击退饿了么，这家“巷战之王”在2025年也过得不容易。当王兴在电话会议中预警四季度“仍有亏损压力”时，一个清晰的信号已然浮现：这家以强悍著称的“巷战之王”，已被迫坐上牌桌，进行一场没有退路的防守。1被迫上“牌桌”今年4月9日，刘强东和蔚来创始人兼CEO李斌在一起吃外卖的合影正式拉开了此轮外卖大战的序幕。随后，京东于4月11日宣布上线京东外卖百亿补贴，一年投入超100亿。针对京东高调入局外卖业，美团核心本地商业CEO王莆中在社交平台（即刻）罕见点评，“京东不是第一家想做外卖的公司，也可能不是最后一家。阿里、滴滴、字节不是都做过，滴滴目前在海外也还在做呢。”“在阿里巴巴入局之前，美团虽持续关注外卖市场数据，但并未将防御京东外卖视为战略重点。此外，京东在持续投入外卖等新业务的同时，仍需为零售等核心业务的发展提供资金支持。”有接近美团的人士透露。美团的相对淡定不难理解。外卖市场格局高度成熟，后来者从零搭建网络，绝非短期补贴所能颠覆。但转折发生在3个月后。随着阿里巴巴携重金强势入场，其内部代号为“淮海战役”的百日闪购增长计划被正式推向前台，彻底改变了这场战争的节奏与规模。7月2日，淘宝闪购宣布未来12个月内将面向消费者和商家直接补贴500亿元；7月5日，淘宝闪购推出“超级星期六”活动，未来的100天里，消费者在每个周六都可以买到超低价甚至免费的奶茶咖啡和快消速食。淘宝闪购的入局让美团嗅到了危险的信号。与从零构建骑手等运力网络的京东不同，阿里是一位拥有现成“兵马粮草”的强大对手。淘宝闪购不仅在淘宝App首页有一级流量入口，还整合了饿了么成熟的配送网络与天猫超市、盒马等本地供给资源，具备“流量+履约+商品”的闭环能力。更重要的是，阿里手握充足的资金弹药。“排除补贴，单纯拼配送系统、商家供给丰富度、用户心智、平台运营能力，美团都有优势。”有接近美团的人士透露。为阻击淘宝闪购的分流，美团于7月5日下午迅速跟进，全面加入外卖补贴战。据美团数据显示，7月5日当天，美团零售订单量突破1.2亿单，创历史新高，其中餐饮订单超过1亿单。7月12日23点36分，美团即时零售订单量再创新高达1.5亿。对于这个结果，王莆中于7月15日接受《晚点LatePost》访谈时表态，美团是被迫参战。“别人到你的地盘来以非理性的方式冲击你，你被迫反击。参战是为了生存。如果在主营业务上我们不参与的话，连转AI的机会也没有了。”王莆中说。阿里生态级的资源碾压，让外卖大战升级，美团被迫全面坐上牌桌。至此，一场由京东点燃、阿里升级的全面战争正式打响。2美团“骑虎难下”这场补贴大战，表面争的是外卖订单，实则争夺的是即时零售与本地生活生态的主导权。三家的战略意图与处境，决定了这是一场“意义不对等”的消耗。对于京东和阿里来说，在传统电商流量见顶、获客成本高企的背景下，即时零售成为平台讲“新增长故事”、拉动主站日活和用户停留时长的关键抓手；但对美团而言，即时零售并非增量故事，而是基本盘本身，它既是外卖业务的自然延伸，也是本地生活服务的核心载体之一。由于外卖与即时零售对美团、阿里、京东的战略意义截然不同，三家企业在战局中的处境与选择也呈现出鲜明对比。当三个月的激进补贴迅速转化为季度亏损后，点燃外卖战火的京东迅速调整姿态，公开表态“不参与恶性补贴”；而阿里则持续加码，定下了“三年后（闪购）为平台带来万亿级的成交额，继而带动相关品类整体市场份额的上涨”的目标。面对这一局面，即便深知这次的价格战没有赢家，美团也要全力打赢这场与淘宝闪购的正面交锋。“如果他愿意把自己核心战场的市场份额、收入和利润拱手让给别人的话，那他是可以这么来的。那这样我们只能应战了，但我们会以远低于他们的亏损来应战。”王莆中称。今年三季度，美团和阿里明显都加大了补贴及广告力度。在会计处理上，广告推广和部分非绑定交易的用户激励（如无门槛红包）通常计入销售费用。财报显示，2025年Q2至Q3，阿里营销开支分别为513.78亿元及664.96亿元，同比增长了62.64%及104.79%；美团的营销开支分别为225.19亿元及342.67亿元，同比增长了51.83%及90.87%。然而，营销投入的大幅攀升还未带来相应的效益改善。外卖业务的单位经济效益，高度依赖骑手网络与订单调度效率所形成的密度壁垒。一旦因激烈竞争导致订单分流、密度下滑，骑手单次配送的固定成本便难以被有效摊薄，原本微利的订单便会迅速跌入亏损区间。摩根大通在“外卖/闪购专家电话会纪要”中披露的数据印证了这一困境。该纪要显示，2025年9月至11月，美团外卖单均亏损分别为1.8元、1.4元和1.2元；淘宝闪购的单均亏损分别为3.5元、3.0元和2.7元，都呈现亏损逐月收窄的趋势。另有行业人士指出，在补贴高峰时段，双方的实际单均亏损可能更高。对于这场“外卖价格战”，王兴曾在美团2025年Q3业绩会中表示，外卖价格战是低质低价的“内卷式”竞争，我们坚决反对，但也明确表态，“我们未来会进行必要的投资，以保持领先地位。但我们也无意参与价格战，会根据竞争态势调整投资和策略方向。”不过，从美团和阿里近半年的经营利润看，要保持这种“领先优势”需要以牺牲利润为代价。财报显示，2025年Q2至Q3，阿里的营业利润分别为349.88亿元及53.65亿元，同比下滑了2.78%及84.78%；美团营业利润为2.26亿元及-197.59亿元，分别同比下滑97.99%及244.38%。王兴也在2025年Q3业绩会中给市场打了“预防针”，“外卖业务的亏损在2025年三季度已达峰值，美团的外卖业务在第四季度仍面临较大亏损可能性。”3从“单点竞争”到“生态博弈”为应对这场持久战，美团与阿里的较量已从前端的“补贴火拼”转向后端的“生态博弈”，竞相构筑更深的护城河。第一步是精简弹药、集中火力。美团在2025年下半年先后战略调整了部分亏损的优选业务，并暂停了团好货业务，聚焦资源探索零售新业态。几乎同时，阿里巴巴宣布将饿了么和飞猪合并入中国电商事业群，由蒋凡直接统领，整合本地生活服务板块。第二步是抢占供应链与基建的“制高点”。10月，美团闪购宣布联合上万个品牌共建“品牌官旗闪电仓”，由美团提供前置仓、配送、数字化运营的一站式支持，旨在让品牌方“拎包入驻”。淘宝闪购则推出“淘宝便利店”品牌，聚焦社区30分钟送达。“这场竞争已经进入‘深水区’。”行业分析师丰年指出，“‘拎包入驻’模式的本质，是让品牌方在即时零售的赛道里‘再开一次店’。平台争夺的已不仅是订单，更是品牌的战略库存、核心数据与长期忠诚度。谁能提供更稳定、高效、低成本的数字化供应链解决方案，谁才能真正锁定供给侧的优势。”战争的性质已然改变：从争夺用户手机屏幕上的短暂注意力，演变为争夺品牌商货架上的实体商品与仓储物流体系中的流转效率。比拼的是从商品出厂到送达消费者手中，整个链条的数字化穿透能力与即时化履约稳定性。当“补贴不可持续”成为行业共识，一个更根本的问题浮现：烧钱退潮后，竞争将走向何方？天使投资人、资深人工智能专家郭涛分析称，“此次外卖补贴大战是阿里与美团生态化竞争的缩影。两者补贴战本质是争夺用户留存与商家资源，背后是支付、数据、到家服务等多维度的生态博弈。短期内补贴可快速拉升订单量，但长期需依赖供应链效率、履约稳定性及生态协同能力，否则易陷入同质化消耗。”这意味着，在补贴力度逐渐减弱后，竞争将回归效率、体验与生态协同的本质。但对于不同玩家，终局意义不同。对阿里，即时零售是一场“生态扩张战”，以撬动增长天花板。对美团，这却是一场“生存防御战”——即便无法阻止对手入场，也必须确保无人能动摇其在本地生活的根基。王兴的“亏损预警”已为市场预设了悲观预期。这场由外卖点燃、蔓延至整个即时零售的战争，注定是一场漫长而艰巨的消耗。对于没有退路的美团而言，战略目标非常明确：不惜代价，守住基本盘。无论这个冬天有多长，它都必须确保自己活到春天。内容转载 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