贝莱德智库：金价与股市出现同向波动但黄金的长期逻辑未变

智通财经2025-12-26

智通财经APP获悉，贝莱德智库发文表示，今年一路走高的金价最近再度迎来历史新高。在美联储降息、央行购金潮持续、地缘局势紧张的背景下，国际金价继续走强，COMEX黄金一度突破4500美元/盎司。这也给投资者带来了新的困惑：在金价与股市齐涨的背景下，黄金资产的投资逻辑是否发生了改变？如何把握黄金的配置机遇？贝莱德指出，黄金似乎已暂时转变为一种可进行动量交易的标的。虽然这样可能会带来更多的短期波动，但当...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1385963.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，贝莱德智库发文表示，今年一路走高的金价最近再度迎来历史新高。在美联储降息、央行购金潮持续、地缘局势紧张的背景下，国际金价继续走强，COMEX黄金一度突破4500美元/盎司。这也给投资者带来了新的困惑：在金价与股市齐涨的背景下，黄金资产的投资逻辑是否发生了改变？如何把握黄金的配置机遇？贝莱德指出，黄金似乎已暂时转变为一种可进行动量交易的标的。虽然这样可能会带来更多的短期波动，但当...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1385963.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1670627923.USD","symbol_name":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) 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ACC"},"translate_title":"BlackRock think tank: Gold prices and stock markets fluctuate in the same direction, but the long-term logic of gold remains unchanged","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"159831":1.5,"159934":0.6,"518880":0.6,"IAU":0.6,"SGCmain":0.6,"SGUmain":0.6,"DUST":0.6,"GCmain":1.5,"NUGT":0.6,"GDX":0.6,"MGCmain":1.5,"1OZmain":1.5,"BLK":1.5,"QOmain":1.5},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，贝莱德智库发文表示，今年一路走高的金价最近再度迎来历史新高。在美联储降息、央行购金潮持续、地缘局势紧张的背景下，国际金价继续走强，COMEX黄金一度突破4500美元/盎司。这也给投资者带来了新的困惑：在金价与股市齐涨的背景下，黄金资产的投资逻辑是否发生了改变？如何把握黄金的配置机遇？贝莱德指出，黄金似乎已暂时转变为一种可进行动量交易的标的。虽然这样可能会带来更多的短期波动，但当黄金价格走弱时，可借机适度配置。长期来看，配置黄金的底层逻辑并未改变。黄金常被视为避险资产。自2024年秋季开始，黄金持续走强，不到一年时间涨幅已超70%，虽然今年10月中旬在没有明显利空的情况下金价出现了回调，但现在也已经收复失地。今年8月底时，贝莱德曾提出了黄金即将面临美股季节性波动的可能性，以及历史上在市场波动加剧时黄金跑赢美股的情况。但实际情况恰恰相反，除了10月初的一个糟糕的交易日，以VIX指数衡量的美股季节性的波动并未出现。相反，美股在9月、10月上涨，直到11月初才出现小幅回调。而黄金并没有起到分散投资的作用，反而趋向于跟随美股走势。贝莱德表示，尽管黄金与股市同向波动并无根本性原因，但技术性原因正日益凸显：黄金已成为动量交易的另一种表现形式，即投资者追涨买入涨幅居前的资产。数据显示，黄金与MSCIACWI指数衡量的全球股市呈现出轻微的正相关性。当把黄金与具有价格动量特征的股票进行比较时，这种相关性显著上升。换言之，黄金已被卷入早期成长股及其他主题的交易浪潮中，这类交易在今年秋季大部分时间里主导着市场走势。与其中许多交易一样，黄金因投资者的疯狂涌入而受益。但当这类交易在今年10月承压时，黄金也与早期成长股等其他动量主题一样，遭到了投资者的抛售。黄金未来的投资前景如何？该行认为，持有黄金的长期理由并未改变。尽管黄金无法对冲股市风险，但它仍然是应对美元走弱的有效工具。过去五年，黄金与美元指数(DXY)始终呈现负相关，相关性系数维持在-0.60左右。若美元走弱仍是一个长期风险，那么黄金依然是一个有用的投资组合工具。与美元走势相关的是市场对美国财政情况的担忧，而在美国政府停摆期间，这些担忧并未得到缓解。长期来看，黄金表现仍与政府债务情况紧密相关，当前美国政府债务增长之快，已达到除战争与经济衰退时期之外前所未有的水平。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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贝莱德智库：金价与股市出现同向波动 但黄金的长期逻辑未变

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贝莱德智库：金价与股市出现同向波动但黄金的长期逻辑未变