阿里531亿 VS 字节227 亿：不是跨界，是为生存押注

蓝莓财经2025-12-25

中国互联网变天中国互联网行业正在迎来一种久违的“重资产焦虑感”。过去十年，行业的护城河是流量、生态、组织效率；而今天，决定胜负的，是芯片、算力、模型迭代速度，这些本不属于互联网公司的变量。根据天眼查数据，国内登记在册的AI芯片相关企业超过2.7万家，近三年新增企业数量年均增速超过30%，互联网公司正在被迫加入这场硬件军备竞赛。阿里宣布未来三年投入 531亿美元押注 AI 推理芯片，字节跳动也将预计...

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531亿美元押注 AI 推理芯片，字节跳动也将预计2026年在人工智能基础设施建设上支出227亿美元，较2025年投入超10%，但是以阿里巴巴、字节跳动为首的中国科技巨头资本支出仍低于亚马逊和谷歌等美国巨头。这不是简单的业务扩张，而是为了拿下一张通往 AI 时代的“物理准考证”。当 AI 从软件层面的算法竞争转入硬件层面的消耗战，中国公司正在经历一场从“代码能力”回归“物理世界”的剧烈分层。01阿里押注芯片补齐“云底座”阿里这一次的动作非常激进，531亿美元专门用于 AI 推理芯片研发与投入。这个数字是什么概念？这足够收购一个中型半导体集团，撑起一个国家级智算中心体系。更重要的，它相当于阿里一年多的自由现金流，且在量级上直追Meta 2024年的资本支出。阿里不是“想做”，而是“不得不做”。原因很简单：推理成本已经成为大模型商业化的第一痛点。所有互联网业务本质上都需要低成本推理：智能客服、推荐系统、搜索、广告、新零售供应链优化，全都需要便宜、可控的推理算力。阿里的核心筹码是平头哥。从已量产的通用 CPU 倚天 710，到针对推理场景的含光 800，阿里深知：训练是敲门砖，推理才是碎钞机。为什么必须自研推理芯片？随着通义千问等大模型接入搜索、淘宝、高德等业务，推理成本已占 AI 总成本的 80% 以上。如果长期依赖外部采购，阿里的 AI 业务本质上是在为英伟达“打工”。阿里通过自研芯片实现硬件与飞天（Apsara）操作系统的深度耦合。这种“软硬一体”化，能让模型响应延迟降低 30%-50%，这是支撑“双11”级别并发推理的唯一解。如果核心芯片被卡脖子，算力成本无法下降，那么大模型永远赚不到钱。阿里过去十年的经验告诉我们，自建技术栈是唯一的安全感，芯片不是锦上添花，而是压在商业模型上的隐性成本天花板。谁能掌握推理芯片，就能掌握所有AI应用的毛利率。没有自研芯片的云厂商，在AI时代知识一个二房东。阿里这次拉高投入，是在试图把推理芯片当作下一代“云时代底座”，重新补一块过去缺失的能力。就像当年补齐了计算、存储、数据库一样。总之，模型创新可以跟跑，芯片能力必须自建。没有芯片，就没有资格谈AI商业化。02字节从“App 工厂”正式转型为“算力工厂”字节跳动把 2026 年资本支出规划到 227 亿美元，主要用于 AI 基础设施。如果只看数字，你很难相信这是来自一家内容公司。但字节的压力和动力都更直接，它是全球为数不多需要在真实大规模用户场景中跑模型的公司，也是目前全球对高性能 GPU 胃口最大的中国公司。据行业估算，字节持有的 H100/H800/A800 等高阶算力储备处于国内第一梯队。不同于阿里的“卖算力（云）”，字节是最大的“算力消纳方”。抖音、TikTok、本地生活、电商、剪映、飞书……这些业务的增长率今天并不依赖增量用户，而取决于推荐系统升级、广告精准度、AIGC 提效。也就是说，取决于模型能力。抖音和 TikTok 的推荐算法正在从传统的判别式模型转向生成式重构，算力需求呈指数级增长。剪映的 AI 滤镜、豆包的爆发式增长，要求字节必须具备极高的算力冗余。字节在模型上必须快，必须跑，必须在真实业务中压测试算力。它无法像一些公司那样“先看一看”，因为算法就是它的脊梁。更关键的是，TikTok 在美国业务调整后释放了更多现金流，字节可以把这笔钱直接变成算力。而算力，本质上就是未来五年的话语权。字节的风格是“先把路铺平，再思考怎么赚钱”。这是它和所有中国互联网公司的最大差异：它永远跑得比监管、行业、竞争对手快半步。字节跳动拥有全球最丰富的实时语料库和高频应用场景，这让它的硬件投入能立刻转化为算法精度。所以它先把 AI 基建铺到天花板，再决定要不要做大模型平台，要不要进入全球AI应用层竞争。字节跳动不是在押注未来，而是在为“流量的算力化”提前购买未来的生存权。03中国互联网进入一场“算力豪赌赛”阿里和字节的共同性在于：两家公司都从轻资产互联网模式，杀入了“极重资产”的半导体与能源竞赛。不同的是，阿里是补短板，字节是建未来。这背后是整个行业的趋势变化。 算力正在取代流量，成为互联网公司之间的“新币种”。过去看DAU、收入、生态；未来看算力储备、推理成本、模型可落地性。过去看现金储备，现在看万卡集群规模。谁的算力储备厚，谁才有模型迭代的“试错券”。谁能在真实场景跑模型，谁就能找到商业闭环。美国巨头建立起完整硬件-芯片-操作系统的闭环，中国公司必须补足缺口才能继续竞争。微软靠 OpenAI 绑定英伟达，谷歌深耕 TPU 超过十年，Meta 砸下千亿美元建基建。中国公司如果不在芯片层实现突破，将面临“算法先进，但跑不动、跑不起”的尴尬局面。如果在这个周期掉队，将不仅仅是产品落后，而是整个生态缺席。以阿里巴巴和字节为代表的互联网大厂其实都很清楚，这是一场看似豪赌，实则是生存门票的战争。如果现在不投入未来三年的基础设施，那五年后没有任何大模型产品能活下去。互联网行业的本质一直很简单：你必须永远提前投资下一代能力。否则，一代人的领先，只需一次技术迁移就能归零。中国互联网进入AI时代，商业竞争会回到基础设施，真正的创新者都是重资产玩家。阿里押芯片，字节押基建，路径虽异，终点相同：所有顶尖科技公司最终都会演化为半导体与能源公司。过去十年，中国互联网公司擅长的是“模式创新”与“组织变革”；未来十年，它们必须学会与硅片、光模块、配电柜和复杂的指令集打交道。AI 时代最残酷的是，这是一个不存在“守成者福利”的行业。 阿里的 531 亿美元和字节的 227 亿美元，只是这场马拉松的起跑发令枪。在这场博弈中，中国互联网正在告别“轻盈”，走向深邃而沉重的硬件底层。免责声明：本文基于公司法定披露内容和已公开的资料信息，展开评论，但作者不保证该信息资料的完整性、及时性。另：股市有风险，入市需谨慎。文章不构成投资建议，投资与否须自行甄别。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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