共封装光学（CPO）遭遇急刹车！博通、Arista齐发声：技术虽好，但为时过早

半导体行业小报2025-12-25

在AI算力基础设施投资如火如荼的当下，共封装光学（CPO）技术却被行业巨头集体"降温"。博通首席执行官陈福阳在最新财报会议上直言"硅光子学短期内不会在数据中心发挥实质性作用"，Arista、Marvell等厂商一致认为CPO的商业化时间表将推迟至2028-2029年。这一共识背后，是行业对现有互联技术潜力的重新评估——可插拔光模块、线性驱动可插拔光模块（LPO）等过渡方案正展现出超预期的生命力，而...

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Broadcom and Arista speak out together: although the technology is good, it is too early","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AVGO":1.96,"ANET":1.91},"content_text":"在AI算力基础设施投资如火如荼的当下，共封装光学（CPO）技术却被行业巨头集体\"降温\"。博通首席执行官陈福阳在最新财报会议上直言\"硅光子学短期内不会在数据中心发挥实质性作用\"，Arista、Marvell等厂商一致认为CPO的商业化时间表将推迟至2028-2029年。这一共识背后，是行业对现有互联技术潜力的重新评估——可插拔光模块、线性驱动可插拔光模块（LPO）等过渡方案正展现出超预期的生命力，而CPO在可靠性、功耗和成本方面的挑战让超大规模云厂商望而却步。CPO并非技术伪命题，只是市场节奏远慢于资本预期。市场现实：从狂热到理性的预期修正CPO技术曾被视为下一代数据中心互联的终极解决方案，尤其在AI集群规模向数十万乃至百万GPU扩展的背景下。然而，2025年行业领袖们的集体表态让市场预期回归理性。博通陈福阳清晰地描绘了互联技术演进路径：首先是机架级铜互联规模化落地，接着是可插拔光模块持续迭代，\"只有当这两条技术路径触及物理性能与经济成本的双重极限时，CPO才会成为行业刚需。\"数据支撑了这一判断。Lumentum预计2026年光端口总量将达6000万-7000万个，同比增长近翻倍，其中800G端口占55%-60%，1.6T端口占15%-20%。这表明行业并未出现技术跃迁，而是渐进式升级。博通预计800G技术增长周期持续至2026年，1.6T至少持续到2029年，3.2T已完成展示，未来5-7年可插拔光模块仍占主导地位。商业化时间表被大幅推迟。Marvell收购Celestial AI后，将年化10亿美元营收目标设于2028年底。Astera Labs预计CPO大规模部署在2028-2029年，2027年仅为测试性部署。这一节奏慢于此前市场预期的2025-2026年爆发点，反映出从技术可行性到商业可行的巨大鸿沟。供应链成熟度是另一制约因素。Lumentum指出CPO供应链仍较新，需要时间提升产能支持大规模需求。Credo则从产能角度分析，纵向扩展场景需求将是现有需求的数倍，需要整个行业共同努力扩大产能。技术瓶颈：可靠性挑战与功耗困局CPO面临的核心挑战来自工程实践层面，而非技术原理。Credo的Bill Brennan用案例说明可靠性问题的严重性：xAI原计划使用基于激光的光模块连接18个机柜集群，后因迁移液冷设施压缩至6个机柜，团队要求提供7米长铜缆实现\"零中断\"集群，因为铜缆解决方案的可靠性是绝对稳定的。这一案例凸显了CPO的可靠性短板。Lumentum的袁武鹏指出，CPO经过多代演进，核心目标是降低成本和功耗，但行业仍在解决可维护性问题。博通陈福阳更直言CPO三大缺陷：成本更高、可靠性不如现有技术、功耗非最低。这些根本缺陷导致其迟迟未能量产。系统设计复杂度是另一障碍。Marvell的Chris Koopmans指出，纵向扩展所需的光互联技术是完全不同的技术类型，需直接与千瓦级XPU和交换机共封装，具有不同的外形尺寸、密度和带宽特性。Astera Labs的Jitendra Mohan补充，光链路中连接器是关键组件，负责将光子集成电路输出耦合到光纤，目前限制了光学技术的规模化。功耗表现同样不尽人意。Arista透露其产品功耗通常比同类低25%，大规模部署时优势显著。而CPO在当前阶段难以实现同等能效，特别是在高密度计算场景下，热管理挑战进一步放大功耗问题。过渡方案：LPO、AEC和ALC的技术生命力令人意外的是，过渡技术方案展现出超预期的生命力。LPO被Arista称为\"向前瞻性创新\"，其800G版本已大规模部署，1.6T版本也在稳步推进。LPO通过去除数字信号处理器（DSP），显著降低资本支出和功耗，客户可将节省的功耗预算用于部署更多计算设备。有源电缆组件（AEC）和有源光缆（ALC）在2-30米关键互联区间提供接近铜缆的可靠性与接近光学的带宽。Credo指出AEC应用场景广泛，存在大量超越标准的创新机会。Marvell的\"黄金线缆计划\"提供完整参考设计，展示如何打造符合要求的产品。这些过渡方案的成功在于架构优化而非生态重构。对交换机与光模块厂商而言，LPO是渐进式改进，客户迁移成本低。Marvell的Koopmans指出，客户完成400G软件认证后，向800G迁移\"几乎即时完成\"，这种软件预认证形成的生态优势是可插拔架构的核心护城河。Credo在ALC中投入的微LED技术可直接应用于近封装光学，功耗仅为CPO的1/3，且无需复杂交换机设计。这种技术路径在提供CPO替代方案的同时，规避了其固有缺陷，更具商业吸引力。应用场景：横向与纵向扩展的双重遇冷在横向扩展（Scale-Out）领域，CPO几乎找不到立足之地。博通陈福阳明确表示，未来5-7年可插拔光模块仍将主导横向扩展市场。Marvell的Koopmans指出，在传输距离较长、需要互操作的市场中，可插拔产品采用速度较慢，但客户已完成400G软件认证，迁移顺畅。纵向扩展（Scale-Up）本是CPO最具希望的应用场景，但时间表同样被推迟。Celestial AI的16太比特芯粒产品性能是1.6T产品的10倍，但大规模商业部署仍定于2027-2028年。Astera Labs的Mohan预计2028-2029年实现大规模部署，2027年进行测试性部署。客户偏好是重要因素。Lumentum的袁武鹏观察到，客户更倾向依赖现有供应链，因已建立高度信任关系。超大规模客户机会成本高，所有项目需即时产能爬坡，无时间认证新供应商。这种供应链惯性使CPO难以快速渗透。架构灵活性需求也制约CPO adoption。Astera Labs的Mohan指出，客户仍在规划整体架构，如果将所有功能集成到单片芯片中，需过早决策。在行业标准未最终确定、另一端交换机未推出时，客户不愿将赌注押在单一协议上。超大规模厂商的审慎逻辑超大规模云厂商对CPO的态度异常谨慎，背后有多重考量。可靠性要求方面，Credo的Brennan强调，AI系统包含大量组件，需以系统形式销售并对整个系统承担责任。CPO一旦出现问题，是\"整板级风险\"，远超可插拔光模块的故障隔离能力。运维体系惯性是另一障碍。Lumentum指出所有超大规模厂商都拥有自己的网络团队，建立了完善的认证、测试和运维流程。Marvell补充客户认证周期通常一年前启动，即使后来推出性能合格产品，完成认证也需要很长时间。供应链安全优先于技术领先。博通建设新加坡工厂的核心目的是内部化先进封装产能，优化成本并保障供应链安全。CPO技术的供应链成熟度远低于可插拔光模块，超大规模厂商不愿冒险。Arista的Hardev Singh指出，二级云厂商和企业客户关心供应商是否能提供现成网络解决方案并快速部署，而超大规模厂商虽追求前沿技术，但对CPO仍持审慎态度，因现有方案尚未触及性能天花板。产业链各方的战略选择面对CPO的延迟，产业链各方做出不同战略选择。博通坚持认为CPO是正确技术方向，但不确定这些产品是否会完全部署，因工程师会尽可能通过机柜内铜缆和可插拔光模块实现纵向扩展。Marvell采取务实态度，Koopmans表示需评估每个机会：角色定位、客户需求、差异化价值和可持续竞争优势。目前客户要求其专注于PCI Express向UALink转型，这是更大机会。Lumentum通过ZeroFlap光学解决方案提升现有技术可靠性。其重新设计定制化光学DSP，实现带内通信，传输遥测数据，并通过交换机SDK与客户网络集成，提供实时持续遥测数据。Credo则聚焦可靠性提升，尤其是GPU与第一级交换机之间链路。其最近所有产品差异化优势都围绕可靠性展开，满足超大规模客户对\"零中断\"的极致要求。技术演进路径与时间表重估行业对CPO技术演进路径和时间表达成新共识。2026年，800G仍占主导，1.6T开始放量，LPO和AEC持续增长；2027年，1.6T成为主流，CPO进入小规模测试与验证；2028年及以后，CPO在特定场景开始规模化部署。Lumentum预测，到2027-2028年，首批采用CPO的客户中约40%-50%交换机将基于CPO技术，但这一判断仍存较大不确定性。Astera Labs的Mohan预计2028-2029年实现大规模部署，2027年更多是测试性部署。这一时间表基于现有技术生命周期评估。可插拔光模块技术潜力尚未完全释放，LPO、AEC和ALC等过渡方案不断优化，推迟了CPO的必需性。只有当这些路径在功耗、密度和可靠性上同时触顶，CPO才会从未来选项转变为当下必需。未来展望：必要性驱动而非技术驱动CPO的未来将更多由必要性驱动而非技术驱动。博通陈福阳指出，只有当可插拔光模块技术也无法满足需求时，硅光子学才会成为最终解决方案。\"这一天一定会到来，但不是现在。\"技术可行性已获证明，但系统必要性尚未形成。超大规模客户在现有架构下仍能实现业务目标，且拥有完善的替代方案路线图，缺乏立即转向CPO的紧迫性。成本效益比是另一关键因素。CPO需要整个生态系统协同成熟，包括交换机、光学、封装和软件领域。在现有方案仍能提供足够性价比时，大规模投资CPO基础设施缺乏经济合理性。行业最终将采用多元化路径。Marvell的Koopmans表示，客户在光学技术选择上存在分歧，其理念是支持客户选择而非强迫接受某一路径。这种务实态度反映CPO将作为技术选项之一，而非唯一解决方案。CPO的故事远未结束，只是开场时间晚于预期。在资本狂热与技术现实的碰撞中，行业选择理性与渐进。当AI集群规模突破现有技术承载极限时，CPO终将迎来自己的时刻，但那个时刻需要整个生态系统的共同成熟，而非单一技术突破。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; 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