阿里巴巴-W阿里巴巴深度之四暨GenAI系列报告之67：阿里云全栈AI+TOC入口，A

申万宏源2025-12-25

我们于2024年11月6日发布深度报告《阿里巴巴-W(09988)-AI开启阿里云新成长(阿里巴巴深度之三暨GenAl系列报告之39)》提出阿里云业务低谷期已过，看好基本面向上；今年逻辑持续验证，阿里云重估已成为市场共识。本篇报告重点讨论云业务的基本面展望，以及潜在的AI增量。AI云成长仍将继续兑现。参考海外过去三年，Capex提升-云收入加速趋势延续，国内云厂基本面上行明年仍可持续。国内AI云...

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Entrance, A","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"89988":0.6,"09988":1.97,"BABA":1.97,"HBBD.SI":0.6,"ALBmain":0.6},"content_text":"我们于2024年11月6日发布深度报告《阿里巴巴-W(09988)-AI开启阿里云新成长(阿里巴巴深度之三暨GenAl系列报告之39)》提出阿里云业务低谷期已过，看好基本面向上；今年逻辑持续验证，阿里云重估已成为市场共识。本篇报告重点讨论云业务的基本面展望，以及潜在的AI增量。AI云成长仍将继续兑现。参考海外过去三年，Capex提升-云收入加速趋势延续，国内云厂基本面上行明年仍可持续。国内AI云上行驱动：上游芯片压力部分缓解，下游AI渗透率仍在提升期。阿里巴巴是国内稀缺拥有“芯片-服务器-云计算操作系统-大模型”全栈自研技术体系的云厂；收入体量、收入增速和利润率均处于国内一梯队，全球范围内增速追赶谷歌云，但利润率仍较海外有差距，自研芯片+自有场景规模效应有望长期提升利润率。如何看字节火山引擎竞争？火山引擎聚焦MaaS层(模型能力+低价)，但阿里云在全栈解决方案、生态完整性上的优势难以短期复制。当前MaaS市场规模尚小，阿里云在更广阔的AI IaaS及整体云市场的领军地位稳固，其增长逻辑在于承接企业整体智能化转型需求，而不仅是提供单一模型调用。AI增量一：AI芯片国产化，平头哥开启对外销售。国产化算力需求放量的背景下，其产品性能已对标国际主流水平，并成功中标大型智算中心项目。不仅是阿里云提供差异化算力服务、提升利润率的关键，更是其输出全栈AI解决方案、绑定客户的核心抓手。国产芯片上市潮来临，有助于互联网云厂自研芯片价值发现。AI增量二：抢占C端入口，有望开启变现。海外Chatbot变现主要是订阅费、API和编程，但OpenAI也在尝试导购变现。国内互联网公司在流量运营上有明显的优势。阿里布局AIC端入口，以抢占“图形界面(GUI)”向“自然语言界面(LUI)”演进的主导权。将千问升级为连接淘宝、高德、支付宝等生态的超级助理，并推出深度融合生态的“夸克AI眼镜”，让“对话”成为连接一切服务的起点。若“C端AI入口-开发者-用户”的生态循环成立，阿里将把现有的电商、本地生活等业务优势，平滑转化为AI时代的用户粘性与数据资产。维持盈利预测，维持买入评级。预计阿里巴巴集团整体FY2026-FY2028收入分别为10386/11434/12506亿元，调整后归母净利润分别为1019/1455/1836亿元。SOTP估值法下，集团整体目标估值34124亿人民币，对应目标价203美元/ADS，对应上行空间34%，对应港股目标价197港币/股，对应上行空间34%。风险提示：宏观影响企业上云需求，国内AI产业进展不及预期，国内云厂竞争加剧。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"productRelease","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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