顶流Labubu卖不动了，老板王宁身价大跌

跨境前沿2025-12-25

是下一个飞天茅台，还是下一个hello kitty？出品 | 跨境前沿作者 | 李不凡泡泡玛特股价大跌还记得今年11月，话题“泡泡玛特直播事故”登上热搜第一，起因是一名泡泡玛特员工在直播时说漏嘴，称DIMOO挂链“卖79确实有点贵”，另一人回应“没事会有人买单的”。泡泡玛特直播事故截图图源：微博当时这件事闹得沸沸扬扬，一部分网友表示泡泡玛特确实存在高溢价，另一部分网友则认为明码标价没毛病，...

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plummeted","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"09992":1.98,"PMRTY":1.98},"content_text":"是下一个飞天茅台，还是下一个hello kitty？出品 | 跨境前沿   作者 | 李不凡泡泡玛特股价大跌还记得今年11月，话题“泡泡玛特直播事故”登上热搜第一，起因是一名泡泡玛特员工在直播时说漏嘴，称DIMOO挂链“卖79确实有点贵”，另一人回应“没事会有人买单的”。泡泡玛特直播事故截图 图源：微博当时这件事闹得沸沸扬扬，一部分网友表示泡泡玛特确实存在高溢价，另一部分网友则认为明码标价没毛病，情绪价值也是价值。如今，高溢价还是高溢价，情绪价值的消费热潮也方兴未艾，但泡泡玛特却有点顶不住了。消息显示，对比今年8月26日峰值，泡泡玛特香港上市的Pop Mart股价已经暴跌超40%，其总市值也从高光时期的4500亿港元大幅缩水，累计蒸发近2000亿港元。泡泡玛特股价自8月底起持续下滑 图源：Google泡泡玛特创始人王宁的身家同步大跳水。据美国《福布斯》数据，这位38岁的年轻企业家目前财富约为162亿美元（约合人民币1138.6亿元），对比8月份高点下滑了41%，相当于四个月没了113亿美元（约合人民币794亿元）的净资产。资本市场的风向转变总是那样猝不及防。今年早些时候泡泡玛特发布半年报时，138.76亿的营收、46.82亿的净利润让市场充满期待，股价也顺势冲到高点。彼时王宁志得意满，直言“我们去年营收100亿元，今年希望做到200亿元，但目前感觉今年300亿也很轻松。”更夸张的是，凭借当时的股价与持股比例，他的个人财富一度超越了曾经的中国首富马云。王宁财富超越马云 图源：福布斯实时亿万富豪榜然而，不断炒高的股价其实是对泡泡玛特未来业绩的一种透支，当泡泡玛特无法续上Labubu的流量时，市场就逐渐失去了耐心。数据显示，泡泡玛特基金的重仓持股数量已从Q2的6333.08万股降至Q3末的4382.13万股，降幅约31%。泡泡玛特想赚更持久的钱资本回撤，股价下滑，叠加假冒伪劣产品泛滥、潮玩行业竞争加剧以及二级市场价格下滑，泡泡玛特的“情绪价值”神话无疑正面临现实考验。晨星公司驻香港的股票分析师张杰就表示，未来一年Pop Mart可能面临严峻挑战，因为其收入增长预计将放缓至30%左右，而2025年预计增长200%。此外，市场研究公司China Skinny驻上海的董事总经理Mark Tanner补充称，泡泡玛特公司本身“加大供应、弱化稀缺性”的迪士尼化路径加大了“供需逆转”的重大风险，这是导致其增速放缓的主要原因。对此，德意志银行保持相同看法，其在研报中指出，Labubu产能已从上半年的1000万只拉升至年底的月均5000万只。供应的扩大推动其稀缺的潮流IP迅速转型为大众消费品，而稀缺溢价的消失将直接削弱其时尚吸引力和二级市场价格。Labubu供应量持续扩大 图源：Futunn不过，专家的话也只是参考意见，目前泡泡玛特的销售业绩还是可圈可点。该公司第三季度营收同比增长245%至250%，海外收入更是狂飙356%至370%。可以看到，就短期热度而言，泡泡玛特已经凭借Labubu这个IP赚到了足够的钱，现在该公司的问题不是“怎么赚更多”，而是“怎么赚持久”。没有内容支撑的潮玩IP热度迟早会消退，这已经成为市场的共识，积木熊、豆豆娃等过气爆款都是前车之鉴，所以不管再怎么保持“稀缺”性，都难以挽救泡泡玛特的颓势。于是，泡泡玛特开始寻找另一个答案。在2025年3月的财报会上，创始人王宁谈及LV时就提到，想要学习这类品牌如何做到“充足的稀缺”。从奢侈品逻辑来看，这种模式的核心并非单纯控制产量，而是通过精准的价值分层掌握时尚话语权，塑造独特的符号价值，实现大众渗透与高端定位的平衡。创始人王宁 图源：联合新闻网基于此，泡泡玛特一方面扩大产能＋产品分层，在扩大基础款产能、降低消费门槛的前提下，通过MEGA系列和艺术家联名款，继续维持高端形象；另一方面则放眼长期IP生命力，主动借鉴迪士尼、三丽鸥等老牌IP巨头的成功经验，推动业务向电影、珠宝等多元领域延伸，试图通过跨场景、多载体的内容与产品开发，为IP注入持久活力。Labubu大电影筹划中 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