对于2026年，这是高盛顶级科技交易员最关心的10个问题

华尔街见闻2025-12-25

经历了连续三年科技股强劲回报但也伴随着剧烈波动的行情后，随着2026年的临近，华尔街的焦点正从单纯的硬件炒作转向对人工智能投资回报率的深度审视以及市场广度的持续性。据高盛顶级科技交易员Peter Callahan发布的最新展望报告，尽管纳斯达克100指数在2025年最终上涨超过20%，但这并非是“轻松躺赢”的一年。Callahan指出，虽然“Mag 7”在2025年合计贡献了约3.5万亿美元的市值...

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3762092><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>经历了连续三年科技股强劲回报但也伴随着剧烈波动的行情后，随着2026年的临近，华尔街的焦点正从单纯的硬件炒作转向对人工智能投资回报率的深度审视以及市场广度的持续性。据高盛顶级科技交易员Peter Callahan发布的最新展望报告，尽管纳斯达克100指数在2025年最终上涨超过20%，但这并非是“轻松躺赢”的一年。Callahan指出，虽然“Mag 7”在2025年合计贡献了约3.5万亿美元的市值...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3762092\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2750360641.GBP","symbol_name":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) 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traders","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44627b3d1e51d6b24a83bc0125b629bb","symbols_score_info":{"GS":1.5},"content_text":"经历了连续三年科技股强劲回报但也伴随着剧烈波动的行情后，随着2026年的临近，华尔街的焦点正从单纯的硬件炒作转向对人工智能投资回报率的深度审视以及市场广度的持续性。据高盛顶级科技交易员Peter Callahan发布的最新展望报告，尽管纳斯达克100指数在2025年最终上涨超过20%，但这并非是“轻松躺赢”的一年。Callahan指出，虽然“Mag 7”在2025年合计贡献了约3.5万亿美元的市值增长，但这一增速相较于2024年的5.4万亿美元和2023年的4.8万亿美元已显现放缓迹象，且市场内部的分化达到了极高水平，纳斯达克100指数中超过30%的成分股以跌势收官。随着投资者日益关注生成式AI（GenAI）在未来12个月能否兑现其高昂的资本支出承诺，市场情绪正在发生微妙转变。Callahan强调，目前的辩论核心在于AI基础设施支出的路径——例如根据英伟达的数据，到2030年每年可能达到3万亿至4万亿美元——是否具有可持续性，以及这种巨额投入何时能转化为切实的生产力提升。为厘清这一复杂的市场环境，Callahan列出了决定2026年科技股走势的十个核心问题。这些问题不仅关乎具体的板块轮动，更触及了宏观经济与技术周期的根本逻辑。决定2026年走势的十大关键问题Callahan在报告中明确提出了以下十个将在2026年主导市场叙事的问题：AI辩论将引向何方？ 焦点是否会转移至“物理AI”（机器人、自动驾驶汽车、智能眼镜）？哪些公司将成为生产力提升的赢家？监管与投资回报率（ROIC）将如何演变？（应用）软件公司如何修复估值？ 未来12-24个月内，软件行业将面临何种悬顶之剑？是席位定价模式的终结、智能体（Agents）的兴起、使用率问题，还是大语言模型（LLM）带来的商品化竞争？苹果公司的故事线是什么？ 进入2026年，苹果是防御性增长股还是AI叙事？折叠屏手机能否成为催化剂？为何App Store的增长在放缓？大宗商品超级周期的广泛影响是什么？ 考虑到DRAM、HDD、NAND等存储产品以及黄金、白银、铜的价格走势，供应紧张还有哪些领域？谁能消化价格上涨，谁又无法承受？GenAI推动的“效率”意味着什么？ 如果这意味裁员，市场会将其视为生产力提升的利好，还是对经济和非农就业数据造成压力的利空？在利润率和竞争辩论中，哪些互联网公司最值得买入？ 比如投资者正在激烈辩论META等公司的前景。周期性行业的转折点是否到来？ 2026年是否会见证住房、商业地产（CRE）、连续三年低于50的ISM数据、模拟芯片或汽车行业的周期性反转？硬件与半导体AI股票能否再次领涨？ 还是关于毛利率、支出可见性或竞争加剧的辩论会压制市场情绪？市场对大语言模型（LLM）的看法将如何演变？会走向“商品化”吗？是多方参与者的竞争市场，还是少数玩家主导？是通用人工智能（AGI）还是超级人工智能（ASI）？中国模型将扮演什么角色？是走向产品化落地，还是停留在“原始智能”的比拼？现在的盲点是什么？ 什么是现在无人提及但2026年将成为共识的话题？是代理商业（Agentic commerce）、SaaS股的回归，还是AI生产力的具体用例？2026年展望：寻找第二衍生品与均值回归回顾2025年，市场最显著的特征是“分化”。Callahan指出，尽管指数层面波动率较低，但个股波动率极高。虽然科技股整体表现优异，但半导体与网络基础设施板块以绝对优势领跑，被视为投资者最拥挤的赛道；相比之下，电信、支付和应用软件板块则表现滞后。展望2026年，Callahan认为纳斯达克100指数的回报前景依然稳健，但收益可能更倾向于上半年。这是因为指数近期经历了一段时间的盘整，且面对如AI支出可持续性等“忧虑之墙”，这种低预期往往有利于股市攀升。在投资主题上，Callahan建议关注市场的“扩大化”交易，即资金从拥挤的AI基础设施股流向其他领域。他认为，投资者将在2026年寻找AI的“第二衍生品”——即那些利用AI降低成本、改进产品发现或驱动新收入流的折价股票，而不仅仅是“卖铲子”的硬件供应商。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":4,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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