明年利润一千亿？详谈紫金矿业产量规划与利润测算

矿业纵横2025-12-28

在资本市场对“周期股”仍持谨慎观望态度时，紫金矿业已经用一份确定性极高的成绩单宣告：2025年只是蓄势，2026年才是真正的产量爆发元年。当资源储备、技改降本与超级周期三者共振，我们要讨论的不再是它值不值钱，而是市场何时才能给这位“矿业茅”一个应有的公允估值。2025定调：550亿利润筑牢业绩底座基于最新产销数据与市场价格测算，2025年紫金矿业归母净利润预计将达到550-560亿元。** 从三...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2594322699?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-12-28 13:19","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2594322699","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"明年利润一千亿？详谈紫金矿业产量规划与利润测算","media":"矿业纵横","content":"<div>\n<p>在资本市场对“周期股”仍持谨慎观望态度时，紫金矿业已经用一份确定性极高的成绩单宣告：2025年只是蓄势，2026年才是真正的产量爆发元年。当资源储备、技改降本与超级周期三者共振，我们要讨论的不再是它值不值钱，而是市场何时才能给这位“矿业茅”一个应有的公允估值。2025定调：550亿利润筑牢业绩底座基于最新产销数据与市场价格测算，2025年紫金矿业归母净利润预计将达到550-560亿元。** 从三...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251228132507a6d816c3&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>明年利润一千亿？详谈紫金矿业产量规划与利润测算</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n明年利润一千亿？详谈紫金矿业产量规划与利润测算\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-28 13:19 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251228132507a6d816c3&s=b><strong>矿业纵横</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在资本市场对“周期股”仍持谨慎观望态度时，紫金矿业已经用一份确定性极高的成绩单宣告：2025年只是蓄势，2026年才是真正的产量爆发元年。当资源储备、技改降本与超级周期三者共振，我们要讨论的不再是它值不值钱，而是市场何时才能给这位“矿业茅”一个应有的公允估值。2025定调：550亿利润筑牢业绩底座基于最新产销数据与市场价格测算，2025年紫金矿业归母净利润预计将达到550-560亿元。** 从三...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251228132507a6d816c3&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0326950275.SGD","symbol_name":"Schroder ISF China Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251228132507a6d816c3&s=b","article_id":"2594322699","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251228132507a6d816c3&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2594322699","pubTimestamp":1766899163,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"在资本市场对“周期股”仍持谨慎观望态度时，紫金矿业已经用一份确定性极高的成绩单宣告：2025年只是蓄势，2026年才是真正的产量爆发元年。2025定调：550亿利润筑牢业绩底座基于最新产销数据与市场价格测算，2025年紫金矿业归母净利润预计将达到550-560亿元。2026展望：全品种产量迎来全面“大跃升”如果说2025年是稳扎稳打，那么**2026年将是紫金矿业核心矿种的产量狂飙期。这意味着即便锂价在低位运行，紫金依然拥有丰厚的利润空间。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"LU0326950275.SGD":"Schroder ISF China Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2097828714.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"BAZ\" (EUR) ACC","LU0469268626.HKD":"AB FCP I-ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY PTF(AD","LU0886674414.USD":"CT (LUX) I ASIAN EQUITY INCOME \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU1808992512.USD":"AB ALL CHINA EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0328353924.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU2039709279.SGD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU2097828631.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC","LU0164880469.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AC\" ACC","LU0821914370.USD":"贝莱德亚洲成长领袖A2","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","HK0000252160.HKD":"易方达 (香港) 中国股票股息基金A 类 (分派) 港元","02899":"紫金矿业","LU0348825331.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1794554557.SGD":"Allianz All China Equity AT Acc H2-SGD","HK0000500386.USD":"易方达 (香港) 中国股票股息基金A 类 (累积) 美元","BK1592":"有色金属","LU2097828474.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC A","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","LU0228659784.USD":"施罗德金砖四国基金","BK1594":"碳中和概念股","LU2097828805.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A-AZ\" (USD) ACC","LU0181495838.USD":"施罗德新兴亚洲A Acc","LU1303224171.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1719994722.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK1544":"黄金股","LU0370786039.SGD":"Fidelity Greater China A-SGD","LU1481107354.HKD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","HK0000306701.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0531971595.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0345780521.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL GOLD \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2399975544.HKD":"ALLIANZ ALL CHINA EQUITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0828237510.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF BIC (BRAZ IN CH)\"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0149721374.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU0307460666.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0871576103.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (HKD) ACC","HK0000320223.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1188198961.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF CHINA OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) INC QV","LU0540923850.HKD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) INC","01818":"招金矿业","LU1251922891.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0329678337.USD":"FIDELITY EMERGING ASIA \"A\" (USD)","LU0173614495.USD":"富达中国焦点A","LU0266512473.USD":"JPM GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0049853897.USD":"SCHRODER ISF EMERGING MARKETS \"A\" (USD) INC AV","LU1831875114.USD":"SCHRODER ISF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0828237940.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF EMERGING ASIA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0588546209.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China Equity Fund AS SGD","LU0039217434.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" INC","02259":"紫金黄金国际"},"translate_title":"Profit of 100 billion next year? Detailed discussion on Zijin Mining's output planning and profit calculation","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"01818":0.9,"02259":1.5,"02899":1.5},"content_text":"在资本市场对“周期股”仍持谨慎观望态度时，紫金矿业已经用一份确定性极高的成绩单宣告：2025年只是蓄势，2026年才是真正的产量爆发元年。当资源储备、技改降本与超级周期三者共振，我们要讨论的不再是它值不值钱，而是市场何时才能给这位“矿业茅”一个应有的公允估值。2025定调：550亿利润筑牢业绩底座基于最新产销数据与市场价格测算，2025年紫金矿业归母净利润预计将达到550-560亿元。** 从三季报及半年报推算，今年主要矿产品产量目标已非常明确：铜：110万吨金：90吨锂：2.2万吨（正式开启贡献量）银：450吨其他：钼1.2万吨、铅锌42万吨。各品类产能稳步落地，不仅为公司提供了极其雄厚的现金流，更在复杂的宏观环境下，为公司业绩筑起了坚不可摧的“护城河”。2026展望：全品种产量迎来全面“大跃升”如果说2025年是稳扎稳打，那么**2026年将是紫金矿业核心矿种的产量狂飙期。根据目前在建工程进度及权益比例预估，2026年矿产量将出现结构性巨变：铜：126万吨（同比增14.5%）金：110吨（同比增22%）银：610吨（同比增35%）锂：13万吨（同比增近500%，挺进全球锂盐第一梯队）增长逻辑清晰可见：1. 铜矿：巨龙铜矿二期（+11万吨）、卡莫阿三期及项目95（+2万吨）、朱诺铜矿（+3万吨）将形成合力。2. 金矿：海域金矿投产、波格拉达产、加纳阿基姆矿的全年贡献，合计增量约20吨。3. 锂矿：“两湖一矿”全面爆发。3Q盐湖、拉果错盐湖二期及马诺诺锂矿、湘源锂矿协同发力。核心壁垒：极低成本下的“点石成金”紫金矿业最令行业叹服的，是其“化腐朽为神奇”的技术执行力。公司擅长逆周期收购那些“别人玩不转”的贫矿、难选矿，通过自主技术改造实现惊人的盈利。核心品种成本表现：锂矿成本：3Q盐湖完全成本仅6万出头；拉果错与马诺诺成本控制在3.5-4万元/吨；湘源锂矿仍有进一步下探空间。这意味着即便锂价在低位运行，紫金依然拥有丰厚的利润空间。铜金成本：铜精矿销售成本约2.1万元/吨（对比目前约7-10万元的市价）；金锭销售成本约326元/克。这种“最低20%分位”的成本结构，让紫金在面对周期波动时，展现出极强的韧性。“影子帝国”：600亿浮盈的隐形弹药库除了主业矿山，紫金矿业还是一家被低估的“顶级投资机构”。公司凭借卓越的战略眼光，在低位潜伏了大量优质上市公司。截至2025年末，紫金持有的股票账面浮盈已超600亿元：藏格矿业：协议转让成本约35元，现价85元+；招金矿业：2022年买入成本约6.58港元，现价33港元+；万国黄金：成本不到2港元，现价8港元+。除龙净环保、藏格矿业等战略持股外，其余持股理论上均可变现。这些“非经常性损益”不仅能进一步增厚利润，更体现了管理层对全球矿业资源的精准收割能力。未来一年的估值展望若给以20倍合理PE，按照2026年业绩测算，紫金矿业市值有望冲击1.6万亿人民币。紫金不是传统意义上的平庸周期股，而是拥有“顶级资源控制力+全球化运营能力+逆周期管理水平”的超级成长股。当市场看清2026年那道陡峭的产量增长曲线时，估值的修复将如山洪爆发般不可阻挡。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2594322699","isCrawlerRequest":true}