NVIDIA 年底反弹在望！2026运势紧盯2大 OpenAI 进展

经济日报2025-12-25

美股“耶诞老人行情”正蓄势待发吗？标普500指数23日写下2025年第38次收盘新高纪录，人工智能（AI）龙头股英伟达（Nvidia）股价似乎也脱疲翻醒，已一连四个交易日收高，这预示在英伟达领军下，标普500指数年底有望攻上7,000点。英伟达年底有望率标普500攻克7,000点据Fundstrat技术策略长纽顿研判，一波反弹行情即将发动，而英伟达未来数周可望表现突出，这对美国股市有重大意义。他说...

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Fortune in 2026: Keep an eye on 2 major OpenAI developments","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDD":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"SPY":0.73,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"MESmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVDA":1.98,"SPXU":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SH":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"AI":0.62,"ESmain":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"NVDU":0.6},"content_text":"美股“耶诞老人行情”正蓄势待发吗？标普500指数23日写下2025年第38次收盘新高纪录，人工智能（AI）龙头股英伟达（Nvidia）股价似乎也脱疲翻醒，已一连四个交易日收高，这预示在英伟达领军下，标普500指数年底有望攻上7,000点。英伟达年底有望率标普500攻克7,000点据Fundstrat技术策略长纽顿研判，一波反弹行情即将发动，而英伟达未来数周可望表现突出，这对美国股市有重大意义。他说：“上周五英伟达一举突破10月的下降趋势线，成交量也扩大至数周高点。上周初步的突破，许多投资人也许没注意到；但本周持续上攻，对英伟达乃至科技股而言，肯定是令人鼓舞的发展。”纽顿指出，英伟达下一个技术阻力关卡在196美元附近，然后是212美元；若是周线能收在212美元之上，有助于在未来六至八周涨到逼近220美元。之后，可能遭遇重大阻力而停滞不前，使英伟达和许多半导体股拉回整理，颓势可能延续至明春。不过，就近期而言，纽顿预期科技股反弹行情在望，纵使追踪那斯达克的景顺QQQ信托基金最近表现失色，英伟达近日股价翻扬，应有助那指在年终时节冲高。纽顿表示，在英伟达股价翻扬的两天前，纽顿就提醒客户转折点将至，英伟达股价可望在12月下旬触底，然后向上攻坚直到2026年2月。就技术面而论，他认为“这种情况看来已在本周发生”。他指出，标普500指数已向上突破6,903点这个重要技术价位，预示今年底可能收在7,00049以上。他建议紧盯QQQ接下来的两大阻力点：627和637。他还说：“目前，我相信，持续做多是对的，任何小幅拉回即逢低承接买点。”2026展望：OpenAI新GPT模型、数据中心是试金石英伟达2025年迄今股价已跃涨40.9%，但仍比10月29日每股207.04美元的收盘新高价位低8.6%，主因是投资人对AI支出疑虑挥之不去。但Argent资本管理公司基金经理人艾尔布洛克预期，未来一年，算力仍将供不应求。他也列举两大原因，说明尚未看到令人忧虑的AI泡沫。一，供应链出现缺货情况，例如存储器芯片。二，制造全球大多数先进芯片的台积电，仍仅保守地扩充产能，所以将持续享有订价权，进而赋予 英伟达、苹果等客户订价权。艾尔布洛克并预期，OpenAI新版GPT大型语言模型（LLM）可望在2026年头几个月推出，可能是市面上第一批以英伟达最新型Blackwell芯片训练的AI模型，若这些模型的品质、功能大幅提升，对英伟达意义重大。Gabelli Funds基金经理人贝尔顿也同意，OpenAI的新GPT模型和后续的效能评鉴，对Nvidia至关重要，如果新模型十分成功，将意味英伟达领导地位巩固。贝尔顿预期，市场对OpenAI新GPT模型的反应，可与最近Google“Gemini 3”AI模型引起的热烈回响相提并论。“Gemini 3”的一系列基准效能测试结果优异，号称超越OpenAI的GPT-5.1和Anthropic的“Claude Sonnet 4.5”。“Gemini 3”是以Google和博通联手开发的客制化芯片训练，令市场对英伟达绘图处理器（GPU）凌驾ASIC（特殊应用积体电路）芯片的竞争优势起疑。但贝尔顿认为，市场对“Gemini 3”的反应，与其说担心英伟达芯片遭遇Google张量处理器（TPU）这类ASIC芯片竞争，不如说与Google Gemini杠上OpenAI的ChatGPT更有关，只是OpenAI遭遇威胁连累了包括英伟达在内的OpenAI供应商罢了。贝尔顿说，客制化芯片不至于对英伟达构成真正的竞争威胁，一大因素是每家公司的自研芯片专为自家系统客制，英伟达Blackwell芯片则属通用性质，因此能妥善支援众多不同的资料中心。他说：“我认为，英伟达仍会是任何客户的第一选择。其他芯片将适用于少数的客户。”贝尔顿并指出，未来数月，市场也将密切关注OpenAI下一批“星门”（Stargate）资料中心的兴建进展，从中窥知布建AI资料中心的财务情况。OpenAI的2026年度经常性收入（ARR）目标，以及下一轮募资情况，将是关注焦点。他说，只要这些指标朝正确方向前进，就有助于减轻投资人疑虑，进而确认英伟达的竞争优势仍稳固。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2594288858","isCrawlerRequest":true}