DeepSeek、豆包国内霸榜谷歌海外逆袭OpenAI AI浪潮转向硬科技 AI手机元年将至

每日经济新闻2025-12-26

2025年，DeepSeek（深度求索）横空出世，降低了AI（人工智能）技术的应用成本和门槛，细分垂直领域应用端大爆发，行业竞争逻辑也从单一模型比拼转向全栈生态较量。　　与此同时，“百模大战”悄然落幕，“百镜大战”如火如荼。国内外科技公司纷纷布局AI硬件，使其成为市场焦点。　　近日，上海财经大学特聘教授胡延平在接受《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记者）采访时表示，2025年AI大模型格局从...

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The first year of AI mobile phones is approaching","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"USJW.SI":0.6,"GOOGL":1.91},"content_text":"2025年，DeepSeek（深度求索）横空出世，降低了AI（人工智能）技术的应用成本和门槛，细分垂直领域应用端大爆发，行业竞争逻辑也从单一模型比拼转向全栈生态较量。　　与此同时，“百模大战”悄然落幕，“百镜大战”如火如荼。国内外科技公司纷纷布局AI硬件，使其成为市场焦点。　　近日，上海财经大学特聘教授胡延平在接受《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记者）采访时表示，2025年AI大模型格局从OpenAI一骑绝尘转向群雄并起的多极化态势，AI应用从软件延伸至智能硬件全面开花，不再局限于Chatbot（聊天机器人）单点形态。　　他认为，经过2025年“百镜大战”淬炼的AI眼镜产品力显著提升，将成为2026年最具成长性的硬件产品，且2026年大概率成为AI手机元年，但整体进展不会如预期迅猛。　　2026年AI领域核心增长点在哪？　　2025年2月，“低成本+高性能”的DeepSeek问世，大幅降低AI推理成本，推动“AI+健康”“AI+教育”“AI+办公”等垂直领域应用爆发，引发AI应用市场洗牌。开源模型与闭源模型差距缩小，加速大模型普及，企业级用户开始大规模部署。　　用户数据呈现明显头部集中效应：DeepSeek凭借极致性能与开源策略，无大规模商业推广下连续两季度登顶国内AI应用月活榜，2025年1~10月月均下载量达3471.9万；同期，字节跳动旗下豆包依托生态，月均下载量达3143.6万。两者占据通用AI助手市场绝大部分份额，挤压中小玩家生存空间。　　垂直场景成为AI应用重要切口。胡延平指出，AI应用正从语言问答、内容生成向任务达成进化，形成多场景多任务智能体，医疗、教育、能源、制造等行业以及AI for Science（人工智能驱动科学研究）领域涌现现象级黑马。　　Sensor Tower（移动应用数据分析公司）发布的《2025年AI应用市场洞察报告》显示，健康保健、工作教育、生活服务和金融服务等领域，均有超过200款应用新增或内置了AI相关功能。　　麦肯锡指出，2025年迎来垂直AI智能体的爆发，它们通过深度融合行业知识与AI能力，释放巨大价值，预计超70%的AI价值潜力将来自此类应用。　　海外AI市场同样经历格局轮换。11月中下旬，谷歌凭借Gemini 3、Nano Banana Pro等模型密集发布强势回归，OpenAI遭遇逆风。　　Similar Web数据显示，截至2025年10月底，谷歌Gemini在桌面和移动端的单次平均使用时长飙升至7.2分钟，首次超越了ChatGPT（约6分钟）。　　另据Sensor Tower的数据，截至2025年11月底，在App下载量上，虽然ChatGPT依然以约7800万的月度下载量领先，但Gemini的追赶速度非常惊人，从2025年年中每月约1500万下载，一路飙升到11月底的约5200万下载。　　胡延平直言，谷歌发布Gemini 3系列产品后，市场看到OpenAI不仅模型水准不再有明显优势，而且未来可能难以抗衡谷歌的全栈全生态优势。　　反映在资本端，与OpenAI深度绑定的上市公司，包括甲骨文、软银、微软、英伟达和CoreWeave股价从10月底开始集体下跌。　　谈及2026年AI领域的核心增长点，胡延平指出，持续学习能力的大模型、可实时交互的3D模型，以及贯通工具、数据与工作流的没有卡点的智能体最值得关注。　　AI手机元年将至但总体进展不会太快　　2025年，科技巨头纷纷押注硬件，抢占下一代人机交互入口，AI眼镜、AI手机赛道升温。　　谷歌近日携手三星重启AI眼镜项目，苹果首款Apple Glass预计2026年发布，阿里夸克AI眼镜、理想Livis AI眼镜已正式亮相，创业公司跟进使竞争白热化。　　资金端热度高涨，截至2025年12月，全球AI眼镜上下游产业链融资超百亿元人民币，其中国内超30起融资事件，总额近40亿元人民币。　　根据IDC数据，2025年上半年，全球智能眼镜市场出货量达406.5万台，同比增长64.2%。其中，中国出货量突破100万台，占据全球26.6%的市场份额。瑞银研报预测，全球智能眼镜市场规模将在2030年达到420亿美元，2040年升至1170亿美元。　　不过，AI眼镜仍面临技术成熟度与隐私合规双重挑战。咨询公司弗若斯特沙利文的报告显示，当前AI智能眼镜处于L2~L3的过渡阶段，AI大模型的推理能力仅相当于人类儿童/少年的智力水平，尚存在较大技术发展空间。报告预测，AI智能眼镜将在2027年进入L4阶段，进化为兼顾智能化、轻量化和长续航功能的计算终端。　　胡延平告诉每经记者，“经历了2025年的‘百镜大战’，AI眼镜产品力、成熟度都达到了新的水准，会是2026年最具成长性的硬件产品。”不过，胡延平也强调，摄像头的隐私侵犯问题是制约其发展的主要公共议题。　　AI手机同样引发市场关注。12月初，字节跳动联合中兴努比亚推出“豆包AI手机”nubia M153，虽遭微信、淘宝等主流App“拉黑”，但其布局仍在加速，12月19日传出正与vivo、联想、传音等厂商推进合作。　　智谱也于12月9日宣布开源其核心AI Agent模型AutoGLM。该模型被业界视为全球首个具备“Phone Use”（手机操作）能力的AI Agent（智能体），能够稳定完成外卖点单、机票预订等长达数十步的复杂操作流程。　　IDC预计，2026年中国新一代AI手机出货量将达1.47亿台，同比增长31.6%，占整体市场53%。　　胡延平表示，2026年大概率成为AI手机元年，但总体进展不会像预期的那样快。　　谈及“豆包手机”模式对互联网生态的影响，他强调，去App化是方向，但并非唯一方向，更不能演变为零和游戏，生态应是多对多智能连接，需避免AI或大企业借助AI成为生态掠食者。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2594253191","isCrawlerRequest":true}

DeepSeek、豆包国内霸榜 谷歌海外逆袭OpenAI AI浪潮转向硬科技 AI手机元年将至

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DeepSeek、豆包国内霸榜谷歌海外逆袭OpenAI AI浪潮转向硬科技 AI手机元年将至