甲骨文 AI 豪赌：2480 亿美元租来的未来，一场危险的游戏？

Ofweek光电信息网2025-12-25

圣诞节前夕，云计算战场投下了一颗财务“重磅炸弹”。企业软件巨头甲骨文在最新季度报告中披露，其未来的租赁付款承诺已高达 2480 亿美元，其中绝大部分与建设人工智能数据中心相关。这一数字在短短一个季度内激增了近 1500 亿美元，让华尔街分析师惊呼。更令市场不安的是，这些跨越 15 至 19 年的长期租金承诺，与甲骨文和 OpenAI 等核心客户签订的短期服务合同形成了危险的期限错配。这意味着，即使...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2594239583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-12-25 18:08","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2594239583","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"甲骨文 AI 豪赌：2480 亿美元租来的未来，一场危险的游戏？","media":"Ofweek光电信息网","content":"<div>\n<p>圣诞节前夕，云计算战场投下了一颗财务“重磅炸弹”。企业软件巨头甲骨文在最新季度报告中披露，其未来的租赁付款承诺已高达 2480 亿美元，其中绝大部分与建设人工智能数据中心相关。这一数字在短短一个季度内激增了近 1500 亿美元，让华尔街分析师惊呼。更令市场不安的是，这些跨越 15 至 19 年的长期租金承诺，与甲骨文和 OpenAI 等核心客户签订的短期服务合同形成了危险的期限错配。这意味着，即使...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251225183823a6ce47ec&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>甲骨文 AI 豪赌：2480 亿美元租来的未来，一场危险的游戏？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n甲骨文 AI 豪赌：2480 亿美元租来的未来，一场危险的游戏？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-25 18:08 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251225183823a6ce47ec&s=b><strong>Ofweek光电信息网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>圣诞节前夕，云计算战场投下了一颗财务“重磅炸弹”。企业软件巨头甲骨文在最新季度报告中披露，其未来的租赁付款承诺已高达 2480 亿美元，其中绝大部分与建设人工智能数据中心相关。这一数字在短短一个季度内激增了近 1500 亿美元，让华尔街分析师惊呼。更令市场不安的是，这些跨越 15 至 19 年的长期租金承诺，与甲骨文和 OpenAI 等核心客户签订的短期服务合同形成了危险的期限错配。这意味着，即使...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251225183823a6ce47ec&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1934455194.USD","symbol_name":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"A\" (USD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251225183823a6ce47ec&s=b","article_id":"2594239583","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251225183823a6ce47ec&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2594239583","pubTimestamp":1766657280,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"企业软件巨头甲骨文在最新季度报告中披露，其未来的租赁付款承诺已高达 2480 亿美元，其中绝大部分与建设人工智能数据中心相关。更令市场不安的是，这些跨越 15 至 19 年的长期租金承诺，与甲骨文和 OpenAI 等核心客户签订的短期服务合同形成了危险的期限错配。今年，甲骨文与 OpenAI 达成的合作协议金额巨大，仅这一家客户就构成了其订单的支柱。自今年 9 月 AI 热潮达到顶峰以来，甲骨文的股价已累计下跌约 44%。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"LU1934455194.USD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0661504455.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A5 SGD-H","LU1366192091.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY PLUS \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU0545039389.USD":"BGF GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A2\" ACC","BK4528":"SaaS概念","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU2054465674.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC SICAV DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION T \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU2860962120.EUR":"CPR INVEST - ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"A2\" (EUR) ACC A","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0985489474.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-C SGD-H","LU1035773651.USD":"AB SICAV I - GLOBAL VALUE PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU0878866978.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-QD SGD-H","LU0444973449.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU1642822529.SGD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0433182093.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AS-C SGD","IE00B7SZLL34.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD-H","LU0157215616.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" INC","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","LU2543165471.USD":"E FUND (HK) GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0068578508.USD":"First Eagle Amundi International Cl AU-C USD","LU2237957902.USD":"NIKKO AM GLOBAL EQUITY \"F\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU2237957811.SGD":"NIKKO AM GLOBAL EQUITY \"F\" (SGD) ACC","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","LU0289960550.SGD":"AB FCP I - GLOBAL EQUITY BLEND PORTFOLIO 'A' (SGD) ACC","LU2458330169.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0070302665.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1935042215.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (USD) INC A","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","SG9999011175.SGD":"Nikko AM Global Dividend Equity Dis SGD-H","LU0210536198.USD":"JPM US GROWTH \"A\" ACC","LU2458330243.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A-H1\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0965509010.AUD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU0957808578.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2896262040.SGD":"JPM US GROWTH FUND \"A\" (SGD) ACC","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","ORCL":"甲骨文","LU1815336760.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"AUP\" (USD) INC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4543":"AI","LU0965509283.SGD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (SGDHDG) INC","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1506573853.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL EQUITY \"AA\" (SGD) INC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","BK4516":"特朗普概念","IE00BN8TJ469.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0965509101.SGD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1935043023.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME \"AA\" (USD) INC A","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","BK4538":"云计算","LU0208291251.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","LU1935042488.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU1935042991.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU2746668461.USD":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS \"AA\" (USD) ACC","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","SG9999003800.SGD":"Nikko AM Global Dividend Equity Acc SGD-H","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0314106906.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL EQUITY \"AA\" (USD) INC","SG9999001424.SGD":"United E-Commerce Fund SGD","LU1489326972.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-MD SGD-H","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","BK4097":"系统软件","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0476273544.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"BU\" (USD) ACC","LU1069347547.HKD":"AB SICAV I - GLOBAL VALUE PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (HKD) INC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU2746668974.SGD":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS \"AA\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0949170772.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A6 SGD-H","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1003077747.HKD":"BGF GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A6\" (HKDHDG) INC","LU0553294199.USD":"BGF GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A5G\" (USD) INC","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","LU2087625088.SGD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1934455863.HKD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0738911758.USD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A6 USD","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","LU0861579265.USD":"联博低波幅策略股票基金A","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","BK4588":"碎股","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","LU2108987350.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY SUSTAINABLE (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1935043536.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC A","LU1691799644.USD":"Amundi Funds Polen Capital Global Growth A2 (C) USD","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","LU1366333091.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1037948897.HKD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU0965508806.USD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","LU1934455277.USD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU1989764748.USD":"东方汇理环球颠覆性机遇A2 Acc","LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0081259029.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - TECH OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1037948541.HKD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC"},"translate_title":"Oracle's AI gamble: $248 billion rented future, a dangerous game?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ORCL":1.96},"content_text":"圣诞节前夕，云计算战场投下了一颗财务“重磅炸弹”。企业软件巨头甲骨文在最新季度报告中披露，其未来的租赁付款承诺已高达 2480 亿美元，其中绝大部分与建设人工智能数据中心相关。这一数字在短短一个季度内激增了近 1500 亿美元，让华尔街分析师惊呼。更令市场不安的是，这些跨越 15 至 19 年的长期租金承诺，与甲骨文和 OpenAI 等核心客户签订的短期服务合同形成了危险的期限错配。这意味着，即使客户需求生变，甲骨文仍可能被锁定在巨额的租金支付义务中。这 2480 亿美元，是通往 AI 王座的阶梯，还是压垮骆驼的最后一根租金？激进转型与轻资产模式的豪赌面对亚马逊、微软等云计算的先行者，作为后来者的甲骨文，选择了一条极其激进的追赶路径。其核心策略可以概括为以租代建的轻资产模式。与直接买地建造数据中心不同，甲骨文倾向于签订长期租赁协议，锁定数据中心空间。这样能大幅减少前期资本支出，在短期内以更快的速度扩张产能。今年，甲骨文与 OpenAI 达成的合作协议金额巨大，仅这一家客户就构成了其订单的支柱。此外，Meta、字节跳动等 AI 领域的头部公司也都是其重要客户。为了服务好这些客户，甲骨文正着手进行历史性的数据中心建设，以支持最新 AI 模型的训练和部署。根据公司自己的预测，其云基础设施业务到 2030 年的年收入目标是 1660 亿美元，这将是去年收入的 16 倍以上。管理层对这项业务的利润率也持乐观态度，预计出租 AI 算力将带来 30% 到 40% 的毛利率。然而，这张宏伟的蓝图背后，风险也如影随形。这种模式最大的问题在于期限错配。甲骨文与地产商签订的租赁协议往往长达 15-19年，但其与 OpenAI 等客户的算力服务合同期限则短得多。公司的待履行合同收入中，约 75% 预计在未来 60 个月内确认。罗斯柴尔德公司 Redburn 分析师 Alex Haissl 上周在接受《金融时报》的采访时表示：“甲骨文实际上是在为承担租赁期限风险而获得报酬。”一旦高估了客户需求，甲骨文就可能被锁定在过剩的数据中心空间里，导致盈利和现金流下滑，因为提前解约通常需要支付巨额终止费。融资受阻与市场信心的动摇近期，市场对甲骨文这场豪赌的担忧，已经从纸面分析变成了真金白银的撤退。一个明确的危险信号是，甲骨文长期合作的融资伙伴开始变得犹豫。12 月中旬，有消息称，甲骨文在美国密歇根州规划的一个价值 100 亿美元、容量达 1GW 的大型数据中心项目遭遇挫折。其最大的贷款合作方之一 Blue Owl Capital决定退出资助。据报道，贷款方对甲骨文不断增长的资本支出和债务水平表示担忧，并要求“更严格的租赁和债务条款”。这一事件直接引发了市场抛售。消息传出后，甲骨文股价单日大跌 5.4%，创下半年新低，并拖累了整个科技板块。自今年 9 月 AI 热潮达到顶峰以来，甲骨文的股价已累计下跌约 44%。融资方的退缩和股价的下跌，反映了更深层次的市场疑虑。首先是对投资回报率的质疑。有做空机构指出，甲骨文新增资本投入的回报率仅为8.5%，远低于微软的 40%。投资者怀疑，在技术快速迭代的 AI 领域，如此重资产的长期投入，最终是否能带来预期的丰厚回报。其次是对客户能否履约的担忧。市场越来越担心像 OpenAI 这样“烧钱”的初创公司，能否完全履行其高达数千亿美元的算力支出承诺。就连持有 OpenAI 大量股份的微软 CEO 萨提亚·纳德拉，也曾公开对这类“客户集中且合同期限有限”的业务模式表示过怀疑。最后是会计层面的警示。以预测金融危机闻名的“大空头”迈克尔·伯里近期矛头直指科技巨头，批评它们通过延长服务器等设备的折旧年限来低估折旧费用，从而虚增利润。他特别指出，到 2028 年，甲骨文的利润可能被夸大 26.9%。摩根士丹利和美国银行也曾警告，市场严重低估了未来 AI 投资折旧费用对科技公司真实盈利能力的冲击。甲骨文的服务器和网络设备折旧期为六年，但在技术日新月异的 AI 竞赛中，昂贵的英伟达芯片可能在三五年内就已过时。当技术革新的速度远超资产折旧的周期，所有的财务报表都可能需要重写。甲骨文的资产负债表中，埋藏着整个 AI 行业狂欢下的隐忧。IBM 首席执行官曾评论道，从数学角度看，超大规模数据中心运营商绝不可能从如此巨大的投入中获得回报。参考资料：https://www.laohu8.com/news/1103593404https://finance.sina.cn/usstock/mggd/2025-12-18/detail-inhcfrcc6575384.d.html?vt=4&pos=108&his=0","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2594239583","isCrawlerRequest":true}