美光卡了英伟达的脖子

36氪财经2025-12-25

作者|丁卯编辑|张帆封面来源|视觉中国四季度以来，AI板块正经历一场惊心动魄的震荡与分化。此前被寄予厚望的AI云服务新贵深陷“重资产陷阱和债务迷雾”。昔日黑马甲骨文股价接连遭遇滑铁卢，短短三个月内市值从高位蒸发超四成；无独有偶，即便是手握OpenAI和Meta数百亿美元超级订单的新贵CoreWeave，也难逃股价下跌的厄运，10月底以来，其股价累计下挫超40%。这场大溃败揭示了一个残酷的现实：在...

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数据来源：wind，36氪整理当“讲故事”的算力新贵输给了“硬通货”的存储芯片，市场开始重新审视：在AI链条的利益分配中，价值重心是否已经移位？利润向上这场股价分化的直接导火索在于业绩兑现能力的差距。甲骨文与美光近期的强烈反差，本质上是AI产业链价值分配与风险错位的集中爆发。12月17日，美光以一份“炸裂”的财报奠定了其在AI基建中的“战略配给者”地位。数据显示，当季美光营收136.4亿美元，同比增长57%，连续三季创纪录；同期，调整后的毛利率达到56.8%，环比提升11个百分点，Non-GAAP净利润54.8亿美元，同比增长169%。图：美光营收和利润表现亮眼 数据来源：公司财报，36氪整理真正引爆市场情绪的是公司的业绩指引：美光预计下季度营收将触及187亿美元，比市场共识高出37亿美元；Non-GAAP EPS指引中位数为8.42美元，比市场共识高出近75%。这种超预期的增长，彻底粉碎了市场对AI需求见顶的疑虑。财报公布后，美光高开低走，最终涨超10个点，市值跨过三千亿美元大关。图：美光激进的业绩指引 数据来源：公司财报，36氪整理业绩狂飙的背后，是算力“木桶效应”触发的身份反转：存储已成为决定AI资源流向的核心“配给者”，甚至对看似不可撼动的英伟达构成了实质制约。一方面，英伟达的领先地位取决于新一代GPU的交付与渗透。然而，Rubin、Blackwell架构对HBM（高带宽内存）的依赖度呈几何倍数增长。美光、SK海力士、三星等存储巨头垄断了HBM的先进产能，成为英伟达GPU顺利出货的先决条件。只要存储“掉链子”，数百万美元的英伟达服务器就只能沦为库存，其增长引擎也面临熄火。换句话说，随着产业链话语权的更迭，存储供应商凭借产能稀缺性，正从英伟达手中分食蛋糕。据《韩京报》消息，25年4季度，预计三星、SK海力士的存储业务毛利率将达到63%—67%，多年来首次超过台积电。另一方面，更深层的博弈在于，2025年，AI算力芯片市场的“去英伟达化”正反向助推存储厂商的溢价空间。随着谷歌等巨头加速自研ASIC芯片，试图打破英伟达的垄断溢价，AI芯片的竞争愈发白热化，行业格局悬而未决。但市场意识到，无论芯片层如何更迭，HBM都是这场竞赛中的“硬通货”。这种“无论谁赢，存储必收税”的格局，促使英伟达等头部玩家不惜签订数年的长约提前锁定供给，在享受需求爆发红利的同时，也必须接受上游存储厂商的“战略征税”。更重要的是，存储涨价的风波远不止于AI层面，当存储厂商将产能全量梭哈至高毛利的HBM时，基础DDR5内存陷入持续缺货，传统PC、手机与服务器厂商即便接受涨价也仅能拿到七成配额，供需间的严重失衡使整个存储行业的闲置产能快速出清。“拿不到货”的生存焦虑击碎了价格敏感度，整个存储行业陷入“全面提价+产能短缺”的螺旋上升期。风险向下而故事的另一面，则是甲骨文在12月初的财报中勾勒出的一幅矛盾图景。一方面，纸面订单仍在疯狂扩张：受AI需求激增驱动，其剩余履约义务（RPO）余额单季增加了677亿美元，季度末总额达到5230亿美元，意味着当季隐含订单额（Bookings）高达838亿美元，折射出市场对算力的极度饥渴。图：甲骨文PRO增量显著扩大 数据来源：Barclays Research，36氪整理另一方面，却是业绩落地的失速：季度内，甲骨文营收录得160.6亿美元，其中，云业务营收为80亿美元，均未达到市场预期；而盈利质量的恶化，进一步引发了市场的担忧——同期甲骨文毛利率显著下滑，净利润的增长则主要依赖一次性股权出售收益，若剔除该部分，盈利增速也大幅收窄。图：甲骨文营收和核心利润弱于预期 数据来源：公司财报，36氪整理不仅如此，令投资者战栗的，是甲骨文商业模式的潜在“降级”及其引发的债务隐患。为了消化订单，甲骨文陷入“垫资盖房”的重资产泥潭。在这种畸形的供需链条中，甲骨文不仅需要承受上游英伟达芯片持续涨价且需预付现款的霸权，而且下游客户的过度集中，也使得付款周期不断拉长，甚至出现了“边用边付、慢速回款”的被动博弈。“高杠杆垫资、慢回款”的模式，直接导致其资本开支（CapEX）失控扩张和自由现金流的日益干涸。财报显示，本季度公司资本支出为120亿美元，同比增长超过200%，远高于共识预期的84亿美元，导致自由现金流（FCF）降至负100亿美元。图：甲骨文资本开支攀升但自由现金流锐减 数据来源：wind，36氪整理敏锐的信贷市场已率先嗅到了危险气息——近期甲骨文的信用违约互换（CDS）飙升至151.3个基点，创下2009年以来新高。这意味着即便尚未真正违约，但资本市场对这家云巨头的偿债能力已经投下了失信票。图：甲骨文的信用违约互换飙升 数据来源：Barclays Research，36氪整理为了转嫁风险，甲骨文在电话会中甚至开创了新的云商模式——默许客户“自带芯片”租用设施。但市场对此似乎并不买单，反而坐实了恐慌：甲骨文正从高毛利的“算力巨头”，沦为替英伟达打工、替客户垫资的“数据中心房东”，市场对其将订单转化为持久利润的能力丧失了信心。算力狂欢综上所述，随着博弈的升级，产业链利润向上收敛，风险向下堆积，权力结构正在重塑。以存储为代表的上游供应商正凭借稀缺产能锁死长约，握紧高毛利、卷走现金流；英伟达虽占据生态核心，享受着旺盛的需求，但也开始受到上游“卡脖子”和竞争加剧的双重挑战；而云商、大模型厂商等玩家为了维持领先身位，只能在巨额折旧与高昂利息的泥淖中挣扎。只不过，权力结构的变化并非源于需求的萎缩。首先，算力建设仍在加速，且已从“散装采购”进入“万卡甚至十万卡集群”时代。从OpenAI的“星际之门”（Stargate）计划，到谷歌自研TPU的百亿级数据中心布局、微软的Fairwater数据中心，再到Meta与xAI数十万张GPU集群的竞相落地，共同勾勒出一幅史无前例的基建宏图。这种规模的几何级跃迁，宣告AI军备竞赛进入贴身肉搏阶段。图：近期签署的算力与芯片采购汇总数据来源：伯恩斯坦，36氪整理其次，为了支撑这场竞赛，巨头的资本开支（CapEX）加速扩张。在2025年第三季度财报后，市场进一步调高了美国四大云商（亚马逊、Meta、微软、谷歌）的资本开支预测。根据伯恩斯坦数据，预计2024—2027年的CAGR将达33%，总额达到约5360亿美元。如果加上新兴云服务商（Neo-cloud）和甲骨文，整体资本开支到2027年将达到6300亿美元，较此前共识上调近20%。而根据各大厂财报，资本开支中的80%以上流向了“AI基础设施”。图：云商资本开支继续上调 数据来源：伯恩斯坦，36氪整理暗影随行但繁荣背后，核心逻辑悄然生变：市场不再担心AI需求的消失，而是开始恐惧资金与资产负债表的约束会逐渐显化，并最终演化为刺破AI泡沫的一根利刺。以甲骨文为例，2026财年，公司的资本支出展望被上调至500亿美元，较此前增加了150亿美元，约占2026年营收的75%，这意味着未来甲骨文每收入100块钱，就要拿出75块钱去买设备、建厂房。这种“入不敷出”的扩张模式，将甲骨文推向流动性悬崖。截至2025财年末（截止25年5月底），其年度EBITDA仅为289亿美元，而净债务规模却高达977亿美元，杠杆率超过3倍，逼近临界点。更深层次的担忧，在于“偿付能力”的连锁式崩塌。当前AI产业链构建起一张复杂且脆弱的循环交易网：云厂商举债买芯片建机房创业公司融资付租金练模型末端应用尝试变现。一旦末端应用的投资回报率（ROI）无法闭环，整条杠杆链条将面临毁灭性的坍塌。图：AI系统的循环融资数据来源：伯恩斯坦，36氪整理目前来看，下游的盈利模式似乎并未跑通。以OpenAI为例，尽管其2025年营收目标已上调至130亿美元，但在巨大的基建黑洞面前仍杯水车薪：据估算，为了支撑AGI的愿景，OpenAI在未来5-7年面临的算力采购及基建配套承诺总额约在万亿美元级别。这种营收规模与采购承诺之间的脱节，让市场对整个生态的可持续性产生了怀疑。种种迹象表明，在AI狂欢的下半场，风险回报正在显著恶化。预期的定价变得更加困难，资金端的任何摇摆都可能放大波动。因此，投资者不再满足于远期订单的大饼，转而苛求现金流的质量、订单的确定性以及融资能力的循环验证。这种背景下，资金加速向上游盈利确定性更高的核心资产（如存储、光模块等）转移，试图在系统性波动来临前寻找避风港。不管怎样，这场AI盛宴中，投资者“躺赢”的时代似乎已经落幕。*免责声明：","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"corporation","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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