预计生鲜乳价格将企稳回升！

新乳业2025-12-25

近日，农业农村部市场与信息化司发布了《2025年11月鲜活农产品供需形势分析月报》，其中包括牛奶的相关情况。11月，生鲜乳收购价环比略跌。预判后期走势，国内市场生鲜乳产能持续优化，加之元旦、春节备货旺季来临，预计后期生鲜乳价格企稳回升。国际市场，大洋洲、南美和北美等地奶产量处于高位，全球牛奶供应充足，加之中东等主要进口地区需求疲软，预计后期国际乳制品价格维持下跌趋势。生鲜乳收购价环比略跌奶牛存栏...

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rebound!","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"02319":0.9},"content_text":"近日，农业农村部市场与信息化司发布了《2025年11月鲜活农产品供需形势分析月报》，其中包括牛奶的相关情况。11月，生鲜乳收购价环比略跌。预判后期走势，国内市场生鲜乳产能持续优化，加之元旦、春节备货旺季来临，预计后期生鲜乳价格企稳回升。国际市场，大洋洲、南美和北美等地奶产量处于高位，全球牛奶供应充足，加之中东等主要进口地区需求疲软，预计后期国际乳制品价格维持下跌趋势。生鲜乳收购价环比略跌奶牛存栏持续回调，牧场主动优化种群结构、淘汰低产低效牛只，但供给相对过剩局面仍存在，生鲜乳价格环比小幅下跌。11月份，奶业主产省生鲜乳收购价每公斤3.03元，环比跌0.3%，同比跌2.9%。国内鲜奶、奶粉零售价均环比略涨受“双十一”购物节带动，乳制品终端消费有所增长，鲜奶、奶粉零售价均小幅上涨。据中国价格信息网监测，11月份，全国监测城市鲜奶平均零售价每斤5.73元，环比涨0.2%，同比涨1.1%。其中，袋装鲜奶每斤5.32元，环比涨0.4%，同比涨1.1%。盒装鲜奶每斤6.14元，环比持平，同比涨1.0%。全国监测城市奶粉平均零售价每斤144.27元，环比涨0.2%，同比涨6.5%。其中，进口奶粉每斤173.50元，环比涨0.4%，同比涨8.3%；国产奶粉每斤115.04元，环比跌0.1%，同比涨4.1%。1-10月累计，乳制品进口量、额同比增长，出口量、额同比大幅增长新式茶饮、咖啡与烘焙餐饮等渠道持续扩张，以及再制奶酪产业的快速发展，带动了奶油、奶酪、乳清粉等深加工乳制品的进口需求，乳制品累计进口量同比增长。受国内生鲜乳价格持续低位运行影响，大包粉、鲜奶等乳制品在国际市场上成本优势显著，乳制品累计出口量同比大幅增长。据海关统计，10月份，我国乳制品进口量18.47万吨，同比减2.3%；进口额8.59亿美元，同比增2.3%。1-10月累计，我国乳制品进口量218.12万吨，同比增2.7%；进口额103.43亿美元，同比增13.9%；出口量11.26万吨，同比增92.2%；出口额3.45亿美元，同比增55.4%。分品类看，1-10月累计，鲜奶进口52.24万吨，同比减8.2%；酸奶进口1.56万吨，同比增9.9%；乳清粉进口59.99万吨，同比增12.7%；奶油进口11.81万吨，同比增10.1%；奶酪进口15.60万吨，同比增10.9%；原料奶粉进口53.46万吨，同比增1.3%；婴幼儿配方奶粉进口17.94万吨，同比增5.6%；蛋白类进口4.24万吨，同比减11.5%。1-10月累计，主要出口原料奶粉和鲜奶，原料奶粉出口5.66万吨，同比增259.4%；鲜奶出口3.09万吨，同比增26.4%。国内外原料奶粉价差环比缩小受国际原料奶粉批发价格下跌及新西兰免税奶粉进口占比增加影响，国际原料奶粉完税价有所下跌，而国内原料奶粉价格保持基本稳定，国内外原料奶粉价差环比缩小。10月份，国际原料奶粉进口完税价折人民币每吨39427元，比国内原料奶粉价格每吨高10107元，价差较上月缩小2590元。预计国内生鲜乳收购价格企稳回升，国际乳制品价格维持跌势国内市场：据农业农村部监测数据，奶牛存栏量持续下降，截至10月末，奶牛存栏量环比减少0.2%，供给端产能不断优化，需求端受元旦、春节备货带动影响，乳制品消费有望增长，预计后期国内生鲜乳收购价格企稳回升。国际市场：大洋洲、南美和北美等主要出口地区奶产量处于高位，全球牛奶供应充足，而中东、亚洲等主要进口地区需求较为疲软。11月份，全球乳制品拍卖平台（GDT）两次拍卖价格均下跌，平均比上月跌4.6%。预计后期国际乳制品价格维持下跌趋势。来源：农业农村部市场与信息化司。分析师富丽莎、杨祯妮、王兴文","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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