亲历外卖补贴过山车：他们的爆单、疲惫与重新算账

第一财经2025-12-27

“那天爆单到外卖机都坏了，没法打印单据，我们只能用手机看然后把订单抄下来再做。”回顾7月初的外卖大战，餐饮人余丽（化名）仍心有余悸。　　2025年7月5日，自4月开始的外卖补贴战进入最高峰，对于不少餐饮人而言也是今年最难忘的一天。　　美团、淘宝闪购和京东三家平台持续近半年的超百亿补贴战，让外卖行业成为今年最受关注的行业之一。当硝烟褪去，生态链中的商家、骑手以及平台需要直面大战留下的影响，并及时进行...

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re-accounting","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"89618":0.6,"METmain":0.6,"MPNGY":1.94,"HMTD.SI":0.6,"09988":1.87,"ALBmain":0.6,"BABA":1.87,"03690":1.94},"content_text":"“那天爆单到外卖机都坏了，没法打印单据，我们只能用手机看然后把订单抄下来再做。”回顾7月初的外卖大战，餐饮人余丽（化名）仍心有余悸。　　2025年7月5日，自4月开始的外卖补贴战进入最高峰，对于不少餐饮人而言也是今年最难忘的一天。　　美团、淘宝闪购和京东三家平台持续近半年的超百亿补贴战，让外卖行业成为今年最受关注的行业之一。当硝烟褪去，生态链中的商家、骑手以及平台需要直面大战留下的影响，并及时进行调整。　　爆单了，但没利润　　今年的外卖大战，最明显的特点是爆单。期间，商家和骑手都处于满负荷状态。　　“又累又赚不到钱。”余丽在广州经营一家小吃店，主营糖水和炸串，7月的周末余丽和店员都格外累。大战期间，她和店员的身心受到双重挑战。最忙的一天，余丽和店员串了至少4000串炸串，做了500份糖水，第二天的凌晨3点才下班。　　令她哭笑不得的是，忙碌一个月后计算利润时，发现7月的利润不如往常。余丽对第一财经记者表示，7月店里的营业额超20万元，与2024年7月（当时开业不久）5万元的营业额相比增长了许多。但所有的成本开支也在翻倍：日常每月的水电费为5000元，7月到了1万元。食材、人工费用也增加了，7月还多雇了一个临时工。平台的活动支出每单也比往常高10%。7月结束后统计收支时，余丽发现爆单的一个月内，几乎没有利润。　　与利润一起下滑的还有客单价。余丽表示，在外卖大战开始前，每单客单价超过30元，大战期间客单价滑落至15元，几乎腰斩。　　温州锅贴店主黄林（化名）在今年7月进入餐饮业，刚入行就碰上了外卖大战。由于是新手，初期黄林什么单都接，“当时不少单到手就2元或者3元，后来有些活动不参与才提高了客单价。”　　黄林表示，平台在选择商品进行补贴时，会选择价格较低的产品，再进行补贴会直接有明显的单量拉升。8月，他店里的一款产品参加了饿了么的爆品团和美团的拼好饭。这份商家到手价9.2元的馄饨是当时的爆款，一天能卖出200份。顾客端实付价格7.9元，去掉7元多的成本，商家的利润在2元以内。　　在黄林看来，平台补贴不如不补，一是低价留不住用户，上述产品补贴降低后，点这款商品的顾客明显减少。二是正常经营的利润高于这类补贴后的爆款产品。他表示，不做低价补贴后“顾客点的东西多了，不单单点一碗馄饨或者饺子，还附带一些其他产品，利润空间就上升了。”　　目前黄林店里的单量较高峰期减少了一半，但是客单价和利润逐步恢复，目前客单价在20元左右，每单利润在8元到9元之间。　　上海骑手周鹏飞入行已有8年。他对第一财经记者表示，体感在5月单量就有明显上升，7月迎来爆发。　　周鹏飞表示，7月收入增加了5000元。收入最高的一天是7月5日，当天加上补贴一天收入超900元。他记得那天奶茶订单非常多，“一天送了近80杯奶茶。”当天，他在茶百道、沪上阿姨等奶茶店来回穿梭。正常情况下，周鹏飞一天送10杯奶茶左右。　　周鹏飞表示，他很珍惜今天夏天的爆单，“因为我8年前也经历了外卖大战，我自己感觉这种大规模爆单后面很难有。”他透露，当时每天工时拉满了，送到平台强制下线才会下班。　　外卖大战也是奶茶大战，当时周鹏飞每天都能免费喝奶茶。有时来自于平台的补贴，更多时候是商家因为做错了或者取错了有多余的奶茶送给骑手，周鹏飞最多的一天收到了6杯奶茶。　　补贴之下，平台的单量也有明显增长。美团在7月12日宣布当天的即时零售订单创下新高，达到1.5亿单。淘宝闪购表示，7月以来日订单峰值达到1.2亿单。　　影响仍需消化　　在商家看来，轰轰烈烈的外卖大战结束后，并没有赢家。同时，大战带来的影响仍需要业内多方消化。　　最直接的是，对消费习惯的改变。余丽表示，过去店内堂食和外卖的占比是五五开，到了今年7月，堂食仅占2成。同时，点外卖后直接堂食的人也多了起来。　　余丽认为在经历了大量补贴后，消费者在外卖价格回调后可能会有落差，“之前1元钱就可以买到的东西，为什么现在要10元钱买？”　　另一方面，补贴产生了大量的浪费。当时的各类优惠让不少人喝上了免费奶茶，余丽表示部分骑手还会给店员带免费的奶茶，“有骑手对我们说，他一天就拿了10多杯饮料，根本喝不完。”　　而在爆单的时候，也因为出单、等单的时间差，不少骑手最终没有来取外卖。7月5日余丽外卖完单率在90%，意味着有几十份外卖被浪费了。　　低单价也会降低外卖的质量。黄林透露，很多商家因外卖低价销售导致利润下滑，会在食材上降本，例如使用质量一般的食材或者减少外卖的分量。黄林表示，他的店铺也进行了微调，堂食的锅贴一份有15只，外卖版有14只。另一方面，黄林上调了外卖的价格，以保证使用了大额优惠券后的利润。　　周鹏飞则认为，今年的骑手规模有明显增长。去年年底他所在的站点有约100位骑手，今年在高峰期骑手达到200位，增长了近一倍。　　大战的影响更直观地体现在平台的财报中。美团三季度财报显示，核心本地业务第三季度收入同比减少2.8%至674亿元。受近期市场竞争白热化影响，该业务三季度由盈转亏，经营亏损达141亿元，经营亏损率为20.9%。　　阿里巴巴三季度财报显示，三季度即时零售业务（淘宝闪购和饿了么App产生的收入）收入为229亿元，同比增长60%。公司经调整 EBITA（非公认会计准则财务指标）同比下降 78%至90.73 亿元，主要归因于对即时零售、用户体验以及科技的投入。　　另一方面，平台在外卖业务上的大量投入，也加速了即时零售的发展，并对电商行业产生了冲击。今年双11，美团闪购平台成交额、下单用户数和人均消费金额创下新高。天猫品牌即时零售日均订单环比9月增长了198%。　　浙江省供应链专家顾问团专家裴长睿表示，即时零售有覆盖品类不足的缺陷，但拥有履约时效更快等优势，对传统电商格局产生冲击，让流量不再中心化，改变了用户在传统电商渠道的购物频率，也影响了传统电商用户日活、用户交易规模等数据结果的“蛋糕”。　　回归行业生态建设　　监管机构的关注叠加无法持久烧钱，下半年补贴逐渐收缩。　　12月，针对近年来外卖行业存在的“幽灵外卖”、非理性竞争以及外卖配送员权益保障不足等问题，国家市场监督管理总局对外发布了《外卖平台服务管理基本要求》（以下简称《基本要求》）。《基本要求》聚焦平台收费管理、商户入驻审核和配送员权益保障等议题，推动行业理性发展。　　商家也希望行业回归理性。黄林表示，希望外卖行业能回归正常，避免出现特别低价的订单。同时，外卖占比过大也让商家计划调整经营模式。黄林有两家店，目前的经营情况与他的预期相去甚远。“刚入行时希望堂食占店里营业额的大部分，外卖只是顺带的业务。现在一家店一半是堂食生意，一半是外卖生意。另一家店更夸张，80%营业额来自外卖。”　　也是因为这种变化，黄林计划调整外卖占比超八成店铺的店址，搬到更便宜、更偏僻的位置，以外卖生意为主，降低房租成本。他透露已经实地看过店铺，符合需求的店铺租金每月在700元到800元之间，相较目前一个月4200元的租金可以明显地降低成本。　　骑手则担忧明年竞争激烈，周鹏飞表示，“大战期间不少新骑手跳去了别的平台，但是在补贴慢慢停了单子没那么多了后，也有些骑手想回来，我感觉过完年后竞争会更激烈。”　　目前外卖行业正在回归理性。三季度财报电话会议上，阿里管理层宣布下个季度闪购的投入将显著收缩。在阿里之前，京东已经在三季度减少了投入。京东在三季度财报中表示，三季度外卖GMV和订单量取得稳步增长，且整体投入环比收窄，这主要得益于京东外卖运营效率的提升。　　网经社电子商务研究中心生活服务电商分析师陈礼腾表示，2026年，随着补贴退潮和监管介入，外卖行业将进入新阶段。平台将从\"烧钱抢市场\"转向精细化运营，寻求在用户体验和商业可持续性间取得平衡。商家需要重建堂食与外卖的平衡，降低对单一平台依赖，发展私域流量和自有渠道，逐步恢复合理利润空间。监管方面，市场监管总局将持续监督平台行为，防止新一轮无序竞争，政策可能更关注保护中小商家权益。长期来看，行业可能形成\"平台+优质商家\"的共生生态。外卖大战的落幕不是终点，而是行业走向成熟的新起点。　　在外卖大战刹车后，平台也更注重行业的生态建设。10月27日，美团通过官方微信号宣布，骑手养老保险补贴正式覆盖全国。周鹏飞对第一财经记者表示，明年将参与交保，多一些保障。　　美团最新数据披露，“新就业形态职业伤害保障”试点今年已扩展至17省市。截至今年9月底，美团已缴费超过20亿，累计覆盖骑手1300万人。　　京东在三季度财报中表示，在骑手福利保障投入方面，为全职外卖骑手承担所有五险一金费用，每人每月平均缴纳约2000元。京东此前宣布，截至今年二季度末全职骑手规模已突破15万人。以15万人规模计算，京东每月为全职骑手缴纳的费用达3亿元。 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