风停帆转：车市告别“顺风时代”，打响技术与出海“体系战”

21世纪经济报道2025-12-25

2025年末的中国车市，站在了历史性的岔路口：新能源渗透率持续攀升，市场主导权已然切换；存量竞争下的“内卷”从终端产品延伸至供应链上游，成本与技术的博弈愈发激烈；海外出口单月突破70万辆，全球化竞争迈入体系对抗新阶段……　　这场“冰与火”交织的变局，宣告车市正式告别普涨的“顺风时代”，正式迈入技术、生态与全球化的多维博弈新阶段。　　乘联分会的数据给出直观印证：2025年11月全国乘用车市场零售...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2594123366?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-12-25 16:16","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2594123366","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"风停帆转：车市告别“顺风时代”，打响技术与出海“体系战”","media":"21世纪经济报道","content":"<div>\n<p>2025年末的中国车市，站在了历史性的岔路口：新能源渗透率持续攀升，市场主导权已然切换；存量竞争下的“内卷”从终端产品延伸至供应链上游，成本与技术的博弈愈发激烈；海外出口单月突破70万辆，全球化竞争迈入体系对抗新阶段……　　这场“冰与火”交织的变局，宣告车市正式告别普涨的“顺风时代”，正式迈入技术、生态与全球化的多维博弈新阶段。　　乘联分会的数据给出直观印证：2025年11月全国乘用车市场零售...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202512253601898952.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"stock_eastmoney","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>风停帆转：车市告别“顺风时代”，打响技术与出海“体系战”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n风停帆转：车市告别“顺风时代”，打响技术与出海“体系战”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-25 16:16 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202512253601898952.html><strong>21世纪经济报道</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2025年末的中国车市，站在了历史性的岔路口：新能源渗透率持续攀升，市场主导权已然切换；存量竞争下的“内卷”从终端产品延伸至供应链上游，成本与技术的博弈愈发激烈；海外出口单月突破70万辆，全球化竞争迈入体系对抗新阶段……　　这场“冰与火”交织的变局，宣告车市正式告别普涨的“顺风时代”，正式迈入技术、生态与全球化的多维博弈新阶段。　　乘联分会的数据给出直观印证：2025年11月全国乘用车市场零售...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202512253601898952.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SG9999015952.SGD","symbol_name":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202512253601898952.html","article_id":"2594123366","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"stock_eastmoney","url":"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202512253601898952.html","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2594123366","pubTimestamp":1766650587,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"stock_eastmoney","name":"东方财富"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"2025年末的中国车市，站在了历史性的岔路口：新能源渗透率持续攀升，市场主导权已然切换；存量竞争下的“内卷”从终端产品延伸至供应链上游，成本与技术的博弈愈发激烈；海外出口单月突破70万辆，全球化竞争迈入体系对抗新阶段……这场“冰与火”交织的变局，宣告车市正式告别普涨的“顺风时代”，正式迈入技术、生态与全球化的多维博弈新阶段。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"eastmoney.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"81211":"比亚迪股份-R","82333":"长城汽车-R","601633":"长城汽车","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","BK1504":"苹果概念","LU1868837722.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES \"2\" (USD) ACC","LU1303224171.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0348825331.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","BK1540":"电池","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","LU0871576103.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (HKD) ACC","LU1794554557.SGD":"Allianz All China Equity AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0865486749.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Equity Income AS SGD-H","LU1251922891.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0823414551.USD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"C\" (USD) INC","LU0469268626.HKD":"AB FCP I-ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY PTF(AD","LU0516422440.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2476274720.SGD":"ALLIANZ CHINA FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES \"AT\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","GWLLY":"长城汽车ADR","LU2663582299.SGD":"BSF BLACKROCK SYSTEMATIC ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY ABSOL \"A2\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0259732245.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS DRAGON PEACOCK A","LU2449936058.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE ASIA EQUITY \"AA\" (SGD) ACC","LU1328277881.USD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH FUND \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU1508157978.USD":"BSF BLACKROCK SYSTEMATIC ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY ABSOLUTE RETURN \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2148510915.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"R\" (USD) ACC","BK1582":"深圳本地概念股","LU0043850808.USD":"HSBC GIF ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU0819123356.HKD":"HSBC GIF MANAGED SOLUTIONS ASIA FOCUSED GROWTH \"AC\" (HKD) ACC","BK1594":"碳中和概念股","LU0823426308.USD":"法巴中国股票基金","BK1515":"抗疫概念","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK1580":"烟草概念","LU0314109678.HKD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH \"AA\" (HKD) INC","LU1770034418.SGD":"ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1064130708.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1023057109.AUD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0828238088.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF GLBL EMGNG MKT OPPS \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0683595622.HKD":"AB SICAV I-EM.MKTS MUL.ASS.PTF(AD)","LU0326950275.SGD":"Schroder ISF China Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","02333":"长城汽车","LU0449509016.USD":"HSBC GIF BRIC EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 SGD","002594":"比亚迪","LU0594300179.USD":"FIDELITY CHINA CONSUMER \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0254981946.USD":"HSBC GIF BRIC MARKETS EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU1781817850.SGD":"Blackrock Systematic China A-Share Opportunities A2 SGD-H","LU0516423091.SGD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU2506951792.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (HKDHDG)       ACC","LU1868837565.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES \"1\" (USD) ACC","LU2476274308.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES \"AT\" (USD) ACC","BK1589":"北水核心资产","BK0183":"MSCI概念","BYDDY":"比亚迪ADR","LU0417516902.SGD":"Allianz China Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0084288322.USD":"Natixis Asia Equity RD USD","LU0164865239.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU0359201612.USD":"贝莱德中国基金A2","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0165289439.USD":"HSBC GIF ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"AC\" ACC","LU0143863784.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"DU\" (USD) ACC","SG9999006514.SGD":"United Asia Consumer Fund SGD","LU0449515922.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"PC\" (USD)ACC","LU1813983027.USD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH \"AA\" (USD) INC","SG9999015978.USD":"利安颠覆性创新基金A","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","LU1969619763.USD":"EASTSPRING INV CHINA A SHARES GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK0155":"锂电池","LU0289960550.SGD":"AB FCP I - GLOBAL EQUITY BLEND PORTFOLIO 'A' (SGD) ACC","BK1149":"通信设备","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU2399975544.HKD":"ALLIANZ ALL CHINA EQUITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4531":"中概回港概念","LU0531970944.HKD":"HSBC GIF BRIC EQUITY \"AC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0164872284.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK0169":"共享汽车","LU0823426480.USD":"法巴中国股票经典Dis","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0633140560.USD":"AB EMERGING MARKET MULTI ASSET PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0229945570.USD":"TEMPLETON BRIC \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU1880383366.USD":"东方汇理中国股票基金 A2 (C)","LU0588545904.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Equity Income ASDM SGD","LU0143863198.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK1539":"汽车股","LU0054450605.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EMERGING MARKTS EQ \"AD\" INC","SG9999014674.SGD":"Nikko AM All China Equity A SGD","LU0359202008.SGD":"Blackrock China Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0588545730.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIAN EQUITY INCOME \"ADM\" (USD) INC","LU1880383440.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS CHINA EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) INC","SG9999002463.SGD":"LionGlobal China Growth SGD","LU0540923850.HKD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU2580892789.USD":"FRANKLIN SEALAND CHINA A-SHARES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1808992512.USD":"AB ALL CHINA EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0634319403.HKD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0633140727.USD":"AB EMERGING MARKETS MULTI ASSET PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","SG9999006597.SGD":"United China-India Dynamic Growth SGD","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","LU0588545490.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Equity Income AS SGD","LU2360107325.USD":"BGF FUTURE OF TRANSPORT \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU2097828557.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","BK1119":"汽车制造商","BK0188":"融资融券","LU0531971595.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU2097828631.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC","LU1997245094.SGD":"安联神州A股基金AT Acc SGD","LU2778985437.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2097828714.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"BAZ\" (EUR) ACC","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU0561508036.HKD":"ALLIANZ CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) INC","01211":"比亚迪股份","LU2580892862.HKD":"FRANKLIN SEALAND CHINA A-SHARES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2097828805.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A-AZ\" (USD) ACC","LU1064131003.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","NIO.SI":"蔚来","LU1146622755.USD":"安本中国A股股票基金A Acc","LU0315178854.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIAN EQUITY INCOME \"A\" ACC","LU0039217434.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU0348827113.USD":"ALLIANZ RCM CHINA \"AT\" ACC","LU0516423174.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1961090484.USD":"ALLIANZ ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0509642566.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC AV","LU0516422952.EUR":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"I\" (EUR) ACC","BK1607":"新IT概念","LU0307460666.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU2097828474.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC A","BK0014":"新能源汽车","BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU0269904917.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0588546209.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China Equity Fund AS SGD","LU1188198961.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF CHINA OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) INC QV","BK0196":"行业龙头","LU2495084118.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA A-SHARES \"ATH\" (USDHDG) ACC","BK4555":"新能源车","HYDD.SI":"BYD HK SDR 10to1","LU0856984785.SGD":"HSBC GIF MANAGED SOLUTIONS ASIA FOCUSED GROWTH \"ACH\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1580142542.USD":"Blackrock Systematic China A-Share Opportunities A2 USD","BK1522":"燃料电池","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0274383008.USD":"MANULIFE GF ASIAN SMALL CAP EQUITY \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU2153592121.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Emerging Markets Sustainable Development Equity A Acc USD","LU0348805143.USD":"ALLIANZ ENHANCED ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0605514214.HKD":"FIDELITY CHINA CONSUMER \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1720050803.USD":"安联全方位中国股票基金","BK0264":"汽车制造","LU0214875030.USD":"HSBC GIF BRIC EQUITY \"M2C\" (USD) ACC","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU2357125470.USD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CLASSIC RH\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU1719994722.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","BK0072":"苹果","LU2294711713.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"C\" (HKD) ACC","LU2348774022.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Emerging Markets Sustainable Development Equity A Acc SGD-H","LU0516422366.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Focus Equities A Acc SGD","BK1509":"特斯拉概念股","LU2039709279.SGD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0823038988.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS ASIA EQUITY FOCUS  \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0463099449.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF CHINA OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK1610":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0348766576.USD":"ALLIANZ LITTLE DRAGONS \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0823039010.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS ASIA EQUITY FOCUS  \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU0359201885.HKD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU0211977185.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0348767384.USD":"ALLIANZLITTLE DRAGONS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0543330566.HKD":"TEMPLETON BRIC \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4526":"热门中概股","SG9999001226.SGD":"UNITED SUSTAINABLE ASIA TOP 50 \"A\" (SGD) ACC","BK0070":"员工持股","LU0593848301.USD":"未来资产亚洲卓越消费股票基金A","LU1997244956.HKD":"ALLIANZ CHINA A-SHARES \"AT\" (HKD) ACC A","LU0417516738.SGD":"Allianz Hong Kong Equity AT Acc SGD","LU1868838027.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES \"8\" (USD) ACC","LU0348735423.USD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1820825898.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - China A Share Equity A Acc SGD-H","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","LU2289578879.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA A OPPORTUNITIES \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0244354667.USD":"SCHRODER ISF CHINA OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" ACC","LU1861214812.USD":"Blackrock Future of Transport A2 USD","LU0819121731.USD":"HSBC GIF MANAGED SOLUTIONS ASIA FOCUSED GROWTH \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU1997245177.USD":"安联神洲A股基金","LU2328871848.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China A Shares Growth AS SGD","SG9999002828.SGD":"Eastspring Investments Unit Trusts - Dragon Peacock A SGD","LU0650527681.SGD":"Fidelity China Consumer A-SGD","LU1861219969.SGD":"Blackrock Future of Transport A2 SGD-H","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","LU0505663152.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - FUTURE MINERALS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0594300419.USD":"富达中国消费基金A","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"translate_title":"The wind stops and the sails turn: the auto market bids farewell to the \"tailwind era\" and starts a \"system war\" between technology and going overseas","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"81211":0.6,"82333":0.6,"601633":0.6,"NIO.SI":0.6,"01211":1.93,"002594":1.93,"EVS.SI":0.6,"HYDD.SI":0.6,"GWLLY":0.6,"02333":0.77,"BYDDY":1.93},"content_text":"2025年末的中国车市，站在了历史性的岔路口：新能源渗透率持续攀升，市场主导权已然切换；存量竞争下的“内卷”从终端产品延伸至供应链上游，成本与技术的博弈愈发激烈；海外出口单月突破70万辆，全球化竞争迈入体系对抗新阶段……　　这场“冰与火”交织的变局，宣告车市正式告别普涨的“顺风时代”，正式迈入技术、生态与全球化的多维博弈新阶段。　　乘联分会的数据给出直观印证：2025年11月全国乘用车市场零售222.5万辆，同比下降8.1%，环比下降1.1%。　　增长动能明显放缓，但结构性替代的速度正在加快。　　当月，燃油车零售量同比下滑22%，纯电车型则逆势增长9.2%。一减一增间，将新能源车零售渗透率推至59.3%。至12月中旬，该数值进一步攀升至62.3%，新能源已彻底从“半壁江山”迈向“绝对主导”。　　“过去几年打的是顺风战”，比亚迪董事长王传福在近期的临时股东大会上坦言。行业普遍意识到，依赖大盘增长的阶段已经结束。　　风停之时，真正具备技术纵深、成本控制与全球化布局能力的企业，也正迎来驶向更开阔水域的契机。　　与此同时，中国汽车出口在11月历史性突破70万辆，标志着出海竞争已从贸易导向的1.0阶段，进阶至本地化生产、产业链协同与服务生态输出的体系化出海2.0时代。　　渗透率破局后，市场进入“近身肉搏”　　成为市场主力后，新能源汽车行业的竞争已告别增量狂欢，转入存量博弈的“近身肉搏”。较量的维度不再局限于产品与销量，更延伸至技术迭代、生态构建与组织效率的全方位比拼。传统“强者恒强”的定律被打破，新旧势力的座次在电动化与智能化浪潮中被快速重排。　　曾经一骑绝尘的“自主一哥”比亚迪，在2025年感受到明显的追赶压力。今年11月，其国内销量34.83万辆，同比下滑26.81%。王传福将原因归结于技术领先度的周期性下降与行业同质化加剧，“目前技术不够领先”，他坦言，“技术领先是有期限的，最多十八个月。”　　行业同质化加剧已让头部企业的“护城河”面临考验，也印证了“技术迭代速度决定市场份额”的新竞争逻辑。　　传统车企的转型加速度，进一步加剧了竞争烈度。吉利凭借银河系列在主流市场的精准布局，今年前11个月新能源销量超150万辆，新能源渗透率达到60.5%，彻底摆脱“燃油车依赖”。　　奇瑞的跃升同样亮眼。乘联分会数据显示，2025年11月奇瑞首次跻身新能源厂商批发销量前三，同比增长54.0%、环比增长6.3%，市场份额达6.5%。其集团层面数据更显示，11月新能源销量11.68万辆，同比增长50.1%，1-11月累计销量81.47万辆、同比增幅69.4%，实现“四连涨”的同时创下历史新高。这一成绩背后，是奇瑞“全细分覆盖”的产品策略，其已在10万到40万元价格带形成无死角覆盖，有效规避了单一市场波动风险。　　更值得关注的是传统巨头的“大象转身”。在2024年被比亚迪以26万辆的销量差距挤下“年度销量18连冠宝座”的上汽集团，在今年前11个月已将销量差距缩小至约8万辆，体系化转型开始释放巨大能量。其通过整合旗下荣威、MG等品牌的新能源资源，在海外市场与本土市场同步发力，印证了“传统制造体系+供应链能力+电动化改造”的复合竞争力。 （图源：中国汽车工业协会）　　科技跨界玩家的入局，则让战局更趋复杂。　　最具颠覆性的是华为生态的扩张。通过引望技术平台，华为以干昆智驾、鸿蒙座舱等为核心，以“技术赋能+生态合作”模式，与东风、广汽等车企展开深度协同，分别共创“奕境”“启境”品牌。这不仅是产品层面的竞争，更是产业合作模式与生态控制权的重塑。　　华为计划在2026年实现从15万到100万价格区间的全覆盖，其生态输出能力正迫使车企重新思考自身定位——是加入联盟共享技术，还是加速全域自研构筑壁垒？　　小米则凭借“人车家全生态”打法，不仅实现销量快速上量，更推动了行业营销与用户运营模式的变革，让“生态协同”成为新的竞争维度。　　造车新势力的阵营分化则进一步加剧。　　理想的增程“护城河”遭遇众多对手冲击，蔚来在坚持高端换电路线的同时承受盈利压力，小鹏在内部变革与产品线调整中寻找新发力点。　　然而，在理想、NIO\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">蔚来、小鹏分别面临技术路径、盈利模式与产品线调整的挑战之时，零跑则以垂直整合与成本控制能力，验证了差异化生存路径的可行性。　　“谁都是战战兢兢，谁都想行稳致远。”小鹏汽车董事长何小鹏的感慨，道尽了行业在不确定性中的集体心态：“一年前，我们很难想到现在的变化，一年后也很难想到，我觉得变局特别多。唯一敢确定的是，竞争会更加残酷。”　　出海远征，中国车企打响“体系战”　　当国内存量博弈进入深水区，海外市场成为车企突破增长天花板的关键战场。中汽协数据显示，2025年1-11月，中国汽车出口634.3万辆，同比增长18.7%。按此趋势，全年出口突破700万辆已无悬念。其中，新能源汽车出口同比增长一倍，占比持续提升，成为拉动出海的核心动力。　　更重要的变化在于出海逻辑的升级。中国汽车的全球化，已经从单纯追求贸易量的出海1.0阶段，迈入了涵盖本地化生产、产业链协同与服务生态输出的出海2.0时代。这意味着竞争已升维为体系与体系、生态与生态的直接对抗。　　不同车企的出海策略，清晰勾勒出“体系作战”的多元路径。　　比亚迪的出海呈“舰队”形态。在泰国，其罗勇府工厂已实现本地化生产；在欧洲，正筹建多个整车工厂；在拉美，启动了新能源乘用车生产基地建设。从整车、电池到电机、电控，比亚迪试图复制其在国内的垂直整合优势，在海外构建一个相对闭环的产业生态。比亚迪在11月海外销售13.2万辆，同比增长297%；1-11月海外销量超过91万辆，2026年更定下“海外销量突破 160 万辆”的目标。　　奇瑞以“技术出海”锚定高价值市场。2025年11月奇瑞集团出口13.67万辆、同比增长30.3%，连续七个月单月出口破10万辆，1-11月累计出口119.96万辆。其高端产品的海外认可度持续提升，Tiggo8插混版在英国上市两个月即获“年度车型”、通过欧洲E-NCAP五星认证，纵横G700登陆迪拜后获多家国际媒体认可，标志着中国车企已具备突破海外高法规市场的能力。　　长城汽车以“ONE GWM”战略推进全价值链生态出海，构建巴西、泰国、俄罗斯三大全工艺生产基地，覆盖170多个国家和地区、超1400家渠道。2025年1-11月海外销量44.9万辆，占比37.4%，11月以5.73万辆创历史新高、同比增长32.7%。其核心技术Hi4混动体系同步出海，巴西工厂作为拉美战略支点辐射周边市场，新能源车型海外占比超40%，实现从“产品出口”到“生态扎根”的跨越。　　新势力车企的出海则带着鲜明的“模式标签”。　　如蔚来汽车的出海就伴随着其独特的“用户企业”模式和换电体系。在进入德国市场时，蔚来同步启动了换电站网络的铺设。这种将重资产运营模式同步出海的策略，短期内带来巨大压力，但长远看，旨在建立一条基于能源服务的差异化护城河。　　零跑继续以轻资产模式出海。其借助与Stellantis集团的合作，在全球市场完善销交服体系。零跑汽车创始人朱江明在零跑汽车成立十周年的内部信中透露，2025年零跑汽车累计拓展35个海外市场，海外门店超过800家，全年海外交付有望破6万辆。未来将从“出海卖车”向“出海造车”升级，实现与当地产业的深度融合。　　中国电动汽车百人会理事长张永伟指出，汽车产业出海将实现规模跃升、区域拓展与模式升级，“整车+智能化+电池+零部件+服务”生态协同的出海模式正加速推进。而这，也正是出海2.0时代的核心逻辑。　　但远征之路并非坦途：欧盟反补贴调查、东南亚本地化率要求等政策壁垒仍在，合规与本地化运营成为关键挑战。　　“中国汽车出海最需要解决的是合法合规。法律是红线，谁都不要触碰。”长城汽车总裁穆峰的警告颇具警示意义。奇瑞董事长尹同跃也直言“降价是饮鸩止渴”，强调海外市场应靠品质与服务赢得尊重。生态出海的成功，基石在于对当地规则与长期价值的敬畏。　　罗兰贝格全球高级合伙人兼大中华区副总裁、亚洲汽车业务负责人郑赟给出了更理性的预测：到2030年中国汽车海外销量规模可达750万至1000万辆。但未来1-2年，受海外库存、本地化产品开发与建厂周期等因素影响，出海进程可能会进入一个短暂的平台期，正在考验的是车企生态体系的长期运营能力。　　2026年政策换挡下的增长考题 　　在“总量见顶”的行业共识下，2025年底的两项关键政策调整，为2026年的市场格局埋下变数，也推动行业增长逻辑从“政策驱动”向“价值驱动”根本转换。　　购置税政策调整是最受关注的变量。自2026年1月1日起，新能源汽车购置税免征政策将调整为“减半征收”，并设置1.5万元的减免上限，插电混动车型享受优惠的纯电续航门槛也从43公里提升至100公里。　　这一调整直接倒逼车企加速成本控制与供应链优化，多家车企已启动“囤电”大战，通过锁定电池供应、优化采购成本应对政策变化。何小鹏透露已与电池厂商深度协商，印证了核心零部件供应链协同在政策调整期的关键作用。　　另一项关键政策是国家市场监管总局12月12日发布的《汽车行业价格行为合规指南（征求意见稿）》，核心是解决产业规模化阶段的过度竞争与无序竞争问题。背后直指行业“增收不增利”的核心困境。“行业亟需探索‘高盈利、高科技、高价值’的新发展模式。”张永伟的观点，道出了政策调整的深层意图：推动行业从“规模扩张”转向“高质量跃迁”。　　在此背景下，各机构对2026年市场预期趋于理性：国内汽车销量预计微增，新能源汽车渗透率仍将提升，但增速放缓。存量竞争的本质没有改变，增长将更依赖结构性机会与运营效率。　　中国汽车流通协会副秘书长郎学红认为，“在政策逐步退出的背景下，2026年实现3%的增长是可以接受的正常水平，我们也没有对明年设定更高的增长预期。”　　“2026年是中国汽车产业从‘规模扩张’向‘高质量跃迁’的关键一年，新能源汽车是基本盘，核心看点在于技术、模式与全球化的深度落地。”张永伟预测2026年国内汽车销量将超2820万辆，同比微增2%；新能源汽车销量（含出口）有望达2000万辆。　　瑞银投资银行中国汽车行业研究主管巩旻则表示，即使征收购置税，电动车渗透率仍将提升6个百分点，但增长势头会放缓，长期结构性增长机会集中在海外拓展与高端化升级。　　面对政策换挡与市场转型，主流车企从国内、海外双线发力，为接下来的深度竞争储备核心能力。　　国内市场聚焦产品迭代、技术落地与成本优化。比亚迪以“高端突破+走量巩固”双线推进，扩充主力车型矩阵并强化腾势豪华属性；长城汽车提升新能源渗透率，扩大Hi4混动技术应用并补位细分市场新品；吉利延续“油电双线”，下放智能化配置抢占增量；奇瑞完善混动/纯电谱系，覆盖10 万-40万元多场景需求；长安锚定300万辆总目标，靠产品扩容巩固头部地位。　　新势力与科技玩家同步发力。蔚来加密换电网络、落地高阶智驾；小鹏深化电池供应链协同、优化产品线；理想将继续补齐纯电短板；零跑向着“年销百万辆”目标冲刺，提出“技术持续创新、品质做到极致、加速海外市场拓展、保持组织高效敏捷”四大核心策略；华为智能汽车生态则通过“鸿蒙智行+启境+奕境”多品牌矩阵，2026年将推出超10款新车补齐产品布局。　　海外市场则主打本地化与体系输出。比亚迪聚焦欧洲、东南亚、拉美三大核心市场的本地化生产体系建设，计划提升巴西工厂产能至20万辆/年、加速欧洲整车工厂落地；长城汽车深化“技术出海”，扩大Hi4智能四驱电混技术应用范围，以巴西工厂为支点辐射拉美市场，完善170多个国家和地区的销售网络；蔚来持续推进欧洲换电体系本地化，强化“整车+能源服务”的差异化生态；零跑则从“出海卖车”向“出海造车”升级，深化与Stellantis 集团合作，推动与当地产业的深度融合。　　2025年，中国车市在动能切换中告别高增长叙事；2026年，在政策调整、存量博弈与全球化深化的多重考验下，行业将进入真正“拼内功”的阶段。　　对于车企而言，能否在国内“卷”出技术与生态的护城河，在海外“闯”出可持续的运营体系，将决定其在下一个周期中，是成为深水区的航行者，还是搁浅者。　　风停了，但真正的航程才刚刚开启。（文章来源：21世纪经济报道）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2594123366","isCrawlerRequest":true}