海通国际：全球啤酒行业发生结构性变革中国酒企国际化尚处初级阶段

智通财经网2025-12-22

智通财经APP获悉，海通国际发布研报称，全球啤酒行业正经历从周期性波动到结构性转变的深刻变革，健康意识觉醒与代际消费变迁成为核心驱动因素，酿啤酒与无酒精啤酒快速崛起，持续蚕食传统啤酒市场份额。与此同时，软饮料销量保持稳健增长，对酒精饮料形成持续分流。中国企业国际化尚处初级阶段，未来应采取稳健策略：先通过出口试水市场反应，优先布局“一带一路”国家；采用合资模式借力本土资源，设定准入门槛，避免激进并购...

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The internationalization of Chinese wine companies is still in its infancy","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"01876":0.9},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，海通国际发布研报称，全球啤酒行业正经历从周期性波动到结构性转变的深刻变革，健康意识觉醒与代际消费变迁成为核心驱动因素，酿啤酒与无酒精啤酒快速崛起，持续蚕食传统啤酒市场份额。与此同时，软饮料销量保持稳健增长，对酒精饮料形成持续分流。中国企业国际化尚处初级阶段，未来应采取稳健策略：先通过出口试水市场反应，优先布局“一带一路”国家；采用合资模式借力本土资源，设定准入门槛，避免激进并购。全球啤酒龙头的发展经验表明，运营效率是当前中国酒企最可行的突破点。海通国际主要观点如下：全球啤酒行业正经历从周期性波动到结构性转变的深刻变革2024年全球啤酒销量下降1%，总量仍低于2019年疫情前水平。健康意识觉醒与代际消费变迁成为核心驱动因素，美国49%的消费者计划减少饮酒，Z世代这一比例高达65%。精酿啤酒与无酒精啤酒快速崛起，持续蚕食传统啤酒市场份额。与此同时，软饮料销量保持稳健增长，对酒精饮料形成持续分流。中国市场面临独特挑战：高端化进入质价比时代；传统渠道模式失效，费用管控压力凸显；跨界竞争加剧，多元化布局成效有限。龙头化：规模整合与效率提升龙头化的核心是在本土市场建立绝对优势。欧美企业以并购为主要路径，百威英博在巴西凭借68%份额，为全球并购提供资金保障；喜力通过整合荷兰本土市场45%的份额，奠定欧洲扩张基础。日本企业则依靠产品创新突围，朝日啤酒凭借Super Dry单品，将市场份额从9.6%跃升至39.8%，实现逆袭。对中国企业而言，当前需聚焦三大方向：1)高端化提质，聚焦8-10元性价比价位带；2)优化费用结构，通过数字化与产能整合降本增效；3)区域企业先筑牢本地堡垒，再通过周边渗透降低扩张风险，借助细分赛道与差异化营销建立全国性品牌认知。多元化：聚焦协同与场景适配成功的多元化需满足品类协同、渠道复用与品牌延展三大核心要素，向烈酒、RTD、软饮料等相关品类扩张的成功率超60%。国际巨头已形成成熟模式：百威英博的Beyond Beer战略聚焦RTD与硬苏打水；喜力Heineken 0.0占据全球无酒精啤酒超20%的市场份额，成为增长最快板块；嘉士伯以33亿英镑收购Britvic，快速切入软饮料赛道。国内龙头应优先布局高景气赛道，重点发力无酒精啤酒与本土口味RTD，打造差异化产品，或并购区域互补性饮料品牌。推动啤酒与新业务渠道互通，共享供应链资源，降低扩张成本。国际化：模式选择与风险管控国际化是突破本土市场天花板的关键路径，且国际化程度高的企业估值显著溢价。百威英博四次关键并购成为全球霸主，喜力在70个国家市场份额排名前二，海外收入占比达78%。朝日通过收购欧洲与澳洲业务，实现55%的海外收入占比；麒麟则因本土化不足与政治风险评估缺失，在巴西、缅甸等地投资遭遇重大损失。中国企业国际化尚处初级阶段，2024年啤酒出口仅占产量2%。未来应采取稳健策略：先通过出口试水市场反应，优先布局“一带一路”国家；采用合资模式借力本土资源，设定准入门槛，避免激进并购。投资建议全球啤酒龙头的发展经验表明，中国啤酒企业需走“效率提升为基、创新驱动为核、稳健扩张为翼”的道路。运营效率是当前最可行的突破点，需通过成本控制、费用优化与数字化改造，缩小与国际巨头的盈利差距。产品创新应聚焦本土化与健康化，开发适配中餐场景与新兴消费需求的特色产品，强化场景化布局。多元化与国际化需坚守“相关协同、风险可控”原则，避免跨界盲目扩张，优先发展高增长、低门槛的相关品类与市场。未来投资应重点关注三条主线：运营改善带来的价值重估、结构升级的长期受益者，以及新兴品类的先行者。风险提示宏观经济下行、原材料价格上涨、竞争加剧。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2593648586","isCrawlerRequest":true}

海通国际：全球啤酒行业发生结构性变革 中国酒企国际化尚处初级阶段

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海通国际：全球啤酒行业发生结构性变革中国酒企国际化尚处初级阶段