铜行业周报：COMEX铜非商业净多头持仓处于1990年以来87%分位数

光大证券2025-12-21

本周小结：继续看好铜价上行。截至2025 年12 月19 日，SHFE 铜收盘价93180元/吨，环比12 月12 日-0.96%；LME 铜收盘价11882 美元/吨，环比12 月12日+2.85%。（1）宏观：美国11 月失业率达4.6%，2026 年1 月降息概率环比回升。（2）供需：据SMM，中国冶炼厂与安托法加斯塔敲定2026 年铜精矿TC长单Benchmark 为0 美元/吨（本周TC...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251221173131a6bd06da&s=b><strong>光大证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本周小结：继续看好铜价上行。截至2025 年12 月19 日，SHFE 铜收盘价93180元/吨，环比12 月12 日-0.96%；LME 铜收盘价11882 美元/吨，环比12 月12日+2.85%。（1）宏观：美国11 月失业率达4.6%，2026 年1 月降息概率环比回升。（2）供需：据SMM，中国冶炼厂与安托法加斯塔敲定2026 年铜精矿TC长单Benchmark 为0 美元/吨（本周TC...</p>\n\n<a 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月19 日，SHFE 铜收盘价93180元/吨，环比12 月12 日-0.96%；LME 铜收盘价11882 美元/吨，环比12 月12日+2.85%。（1）宏观：美国11 月失业率达4.6%，2026 年1 月降息概率环比回升。（2）供需：据SMM，中国冶炼厂与安托法加斯塔敲定2026 年铜精矿TC长单Benchmark 为0 美元/吨（本周TC 现货价为-44 美元/吨），铜冶炼厂利润或好于预期。线缆企业开工率本周略有回升，Q4 电网旺季效应仍存；Q4 空调排产同比下降，但环比改善；供需仍维持偏紧格局，继续看好铜价上行。库存：国内铜社库环比+1.7%，LME 铜库存环比-3.3%。（1）港口铜精矿库存：截至2025 年12 月19 日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存73.1 万吨，环比上周-4.3%。（2）全球电解铜库存：截至2025 年12 月15 日，全球三大交易所库存合计70.6万吨，环比12 月8 日+2.3%。截至2025 年12 月18 日，LME 铜全球库存16.0万吨，环比-3.3%；SMM 铜社会库存16.6 万吨，环比12 月11 日+1.7%。截至12 月19 日，COMEX 铜库存46.2 万吨，环比12 月12 日+2.6%。供给：10 月全球铜精矿产量同比-2.4%、环比+1.9%。（1）铜矿：2025 年10月中国铜精矿产量为13.0 万吨，环比-8.1%，同比-12.1%；10 月全球铜精矿产量为193.8 万吨，同比-2.4%，环比+1.9%。（2）废铜：截至2025 年12 月19日，精废价差为4683 元/吨，环比12 月12 日-114 元/吨。冶炼：11 月国内电解铜出口环比+117%、同比+1128%。1）产量：2025 年11月SMM 中国电解铜产量110.31 万吨，环比+1.1%，同比+9.8%。（2）TC：截至2025 年12 月19 日，TC 现货价为-43.98 美元/吨，环比12 月12 日-0.5 美元/吨，处于2007 年9 月以来低位。（3）进出口：11 月电解铜进口27.1 万吨，环比-3.9%，同比-24.7%；出口14.3 万吨，环比+116.8%，同比+1128.1%。需求：本周线缆开工率环比+0.4pct，11 月空调产量同比-37%。（1）线缆：约占国内铜需求31%，线缆企业2025 年12 月18 日当周开工率为66.71%，环比上周+0.40pct。（2）空调：约占国内铜需求13%，产业在线2025 年12 月18日更新，11 月家用空调产量1057.7 万台，同比-36.7%。（3）铜棒：约占国内铜需求4.2%，黄铜棒2025 年11 月开工率为50.2%，环比+6.7pct、同比-4.7pct。期货：SHFE 铜活跃合约本周持仓环比+43%。截至2025 年12 月19 日，SHFE铜活跃合约持仓量23.8 万手，环比上周+43.3%，持仓量处1995 年至今74%分位数。截至12 月9 日，COMEX 非商业净多头持仓6.2 万手，环比上周+17.0%，持仓量处1990 年以来87%分位数。投资建议：我们预计后续随供给收紧和需求改善，后续铜价有望继续上行。推荐紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、金诚信、西部矿业，关注铜陵有色。风险分析：国内外经济不及预期；铜价上涨抑制下游需求；供给释放超预期风险。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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