AI算力心脏告急！三星SK海力士宣布扩产，国产存储机遇将至？

DOIT传媒2025-12-22

近一年来，全球科技行业面临一个棘手难题：内存芯片价格持续飙升。据行业数据显示，部分高端内存价格在过去一年涨幅超过60%，导致AI服务器成本大幅增加。“我们的GPU到位了，却被卡在了内存供应上。”这种困境正困扰着许多依赖大算力的企业。就在此时，从韩国传来关键消息。全球两大存储芯片巨头三星和SK海力士——正在启动新一轮产能扩张。根据Omdia的最新预测，全球DRAM市场规模将在2026年达到1700...

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Samsung SK Hynix announces production expansion, domestic storage opportunities are coming?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"HBM":0.88,"MU":0.9,"SSNLF":1.94},"content_text":"近一年来，全球科技行业面临一个棘手难题：内存芯片价格持续飙升。据行业数据显示，部分高端内存价格在过去一年涨幅超过60%，导致AI服务器成本大幅增加。“我们的GPU到位了，却被卡在了内存供应上。”这种困境正困扰着许多依赖大算力的企业。就在此时，从韩国传来关键消息。全球两大存储芯片巨头三星和SK海力士——正在启动新一轮产能扩张。根据Omdia的最新预测，全球DRAM市场规模将在2026年达到1700亿美元，相比2024年的1000亿美元增长70%。面对这块迅速做大的蛋糕，韩国厂商显然不打算错过。01三星、SK海力士在人工智能热潮中加速内存产量面对历史性机遇，三星和SK海力士选择了不同的扩产路径。三星电子近期不仅提升了韩国国内DRAM和NAND闪存的产线利用率，更重点扩大了高带宽内存等高端产品的产出。三星在11月决定平泽五厂恢复施工，预定2028年开始量产，以强化满足先进存储芯片需求的能力。更具战略意义的是，三星正将产能从HBM向通用DRAM倾斜。据知情人士透露，三星计划将用于HBM3E生产的第四代1a纳米制程产能下调30%-40%，转而投入第五代1b纳米制程的通用DRAM生产。这一决策背后是明确的利润考量：尽管HBM产品单位售价高，但其议价能力弱，当前HBM3E产品的利润率只有约30%，而基于1b纳米制程DRAM产能的通用DRAM产品利润率将超过60%。SK海力士则采取了不同的策略。其位于清州的M15X新厂正紧锣密鼓准备投产，该厂将聚焦于DRAM和其他AI导向的存储产品。但该公司计划将第六代10纳米DRAM（1c DRAM）月产能从目前约2万片提升至16万至19万片，增幅达8至9倍。业界估算SK海力士的HBM4利润率约为60%，其明年HBM销售额约为40万亿至42万亿韩元。若维持与今年相同的利润率，SK海力士仅HBM业务就将产生约25万亿韩元营业利润。扩产背景AI推理市场催生通用DRAM需求爆发要理解这场扩产竞赛的意义，首先要明白现代AI技术对内存的独特需求。传统计算任务中，处理器和内存之间的数据交换相对平缓。但AI大模型的训练和推理完全不同——它们需要在极短时间内处理海量参数。AI推理主要依赖于先进的通用DRAM，其能效更高、成本更低。这一趋势在最新产品中已得到体现：英伟达近期发布的AI加速器Rubin CPX采用的是GDDR显存而非HBM显存；谷歌、OpenAI和亚马逊网络服务等大型科技公司也在开发集成大量通用DRAM的定制AI加速器。“随着AI模型从学习扩展到推理领域，通用DRAM的需求增速预计将与HBM相当。在AI推理应用中，比HBM更节能、更经济的先进通用DRAM成为主流选择。”02扩产计划的现实挑战与时间窗口尽管三星和SK海力士积极扩产，但存储芯片短缺问题在短期内难以解决。主要DRAM供应商的产能扩张计划显示，新建产线需2年以上建设周期，叠加2个季度调试期，新增产能最早要到2027年底才能逐步释放。这意味着存储缺货潮可能在2027年前持续存在。此外，HBM产品对晶圆的消耗约为传统DRAM的三倍，而主要厂商正将大量产能转向HBM，进一步加剧了通用DRAM的供应紧张。美光科技首席商务官Sumit Sadana也指出，新建DRAM晶圆厂成本上升与周期延长，短期内难以实现大规模扩产。对于SK海力士试图提前完成龙仁半导体园区内首座晶圆厂建设的计划，业界人士认为，尽管规模相当于六座M15X工厂的原定2027年完工计划有望提前实现，但面对复杂的半导体生产工艺，提前完工面临巨大挑战。长鑫存储国产存储的突破机遇与行业未来走向国际存储巨头扩产的同时，中国存储企业同样正迎来历史性机遇。宏碁董事长陈俊圣强调，存储飙涨的缓解点需观察中国大陆DDR5产能何时开出，“只要这波产能跟上，缺货的问题就能解决，价格也会慢慢稳下来。”在DRAM领域，自2019年首次量产19nm工艺DDR4 DRAM以来，长鑫存储产品良率稳步提升，已成功实现从DDR4到DDR5、从LPDDR4X到LPDDR5X的技术与产能双迭代。长鑫存储最新发布的DDR5产品系列最高速率达8000Mbps，最高颗粒容量24Gb，这一指标已迈入国际顶级性能梯队。在当前市场基准中，6400Mbps代表服务器和高端PC的主流性能层级，8000Mbps则属于高端产品。长鑫的DDR5产品较6400Mbps产品速率提升25%，意味着数据从内存到CPU的传输速度获得质的飞跃。尤其值得关注的是，长鑫还推出了MRDIMM和TFF MRDIMM等服务器级模组。这些是代表“下一代”服务器的技术节点，长鑫与国际厂商几乎同步推出了同类产品，表明在关键技术领域已消除代际差距。长鑫存储市场中心负责人骆晓东表示：“中国需要有稳定的国产DRAM产能供应，通过产能扩张和规模效应，减少对海外厂商产能的依赖。”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.13","shortVersion":"4.35.13","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2593482998","isCrawlerRequest":true}