高盛：中美AI差距缩小至“3-6个月”，豆包手机预示“应用流量格局改变”

华尔街见闻2025-12-23

本文作者：鲍奕龙来源：硬AI 随着2025年接近尾声，12月19日高盛研究团队发表研报，总结了中国在人工智能领域取得的各项关键进展与成就，并展望未来一年可能发生的发展趋势。高盛认为中国AI模型与美国顶尖模型的差距已缩窄至3-6个月。此外研报认为字节跳动豆包手机助手等AI助手的推出，可能预示着移动应用流量格局的根本性改变。高盛看好云计算和数据中心板块以及AI全栈受益标的。预计中国头部云服务商...

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\"P\" (USD) ACC"},"translate_title":"Goldman Sachs: The AI gap between China and the United States has narrowed to \"3-6 months\", and Doubao mobile phones herald \"changes in the application traffic pattern\"","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"UCmain":0.67,"USJW.SI":0.6,"CNHmain":0.67,"GS":1.97,"CYB":0.6},"content_text":"本文作者：鲍奕龙\n来源：硬AI\n随着2025年接近尾声，12月19日高盛研究团队发表研报，总结了中国在人工智能领域取得的各项关键进展与成就，并展望未来一年可能发生的发展趋势。\n高盛认为中国AI模型与美国顶尖模型的差距已缩窄至3-6个月。此外研报认为字节跳动豆包手机助手等AI助手的推出，可能预示着移动应用流量格局的根本性改变。\n高盛看好云计算和数据中心板块以及AI全栈受益标的。预计中国头部云服务商2026年资本开支将进一步攀升至5000亿元人民币水平，较2025年估计的超过4000亿元人民币再增长20%。\n其中，国产芯片和算力的占比预计将从2025年的20-30%大幅提升至2026年的40%。\n同时分析指出全球AI视频生成模型市场规模预计将从2025年的10亿美元增长至2033年的390亿美元，8年复合增长率达56%。\n前沿AI模型与代理能力持续突破\n高盛认为中美AI技术差距正在快速缩小。\n虽然美国模型如谷歌Gemini 3和OpenAI的GPT-5.2在每次更新时仍保持领先地位，但中国AI模型通常在随后的3-6个月内实现追赶并缩小差距。\n谷歌发布Gemini 3后，OpenAI于12月11日推出GPT-5.2，在通用智能、编码和长上下文理解方面较GPT-5.1进一步提升。该模型在创建电子表格、构建演示文稿、图像感知、工具使用以及处理复杂多步骤项目方面表现更佳。\n中国企业紧随其后。12月16日，小米发布开源MiMo-V2-Flash模型，在多个代理基准测试中跻身全球前两名开源模型之列。12月18日，字节跳动发布最新豆包-Seed-1.8大语言模型，进一步提升了代理和多模态能力。\n高盛观察到，美国基础文本和多模态模型(如GPT5、Sora2、Gemini 3 Pro)在每次更新时继续领先，中国AI模型通常在随后3-6个月内实现追赶并缩小差距，然后再次出现阶段性跃升。\nAI助手新时代——豆包手机助手\n12月1日，字节跳动豆包团队发布豆包手机助手技术预览版(首款设备为中兴努比亚)，这是一款通过与智能手机制造商合作在操作系统层面集成的AI助手。\n智谱AI也开源了AutoGLM，这是一个能够通过解释屏幕内容和模拟输入，在50多个高频中国应用上执行食品配送订单和航班预订等多步骤任务的AI代理模型。\n小米透露，其智能手机AI代理超级小爱拥有1.2亿月活跃用户和6500万日使用会话，能够通过各种协议在100个常用互联网应用上实现3000多项代理技能。\n研报指出操作系统级AI助手的更流畅能力可能使用户更接近语音命令/全能助手时代，用户可以专注于移动设备上的娱乐内容消费，而助手则通过语音激活在后台帮助回复消息。\n高盛认为，操作系统级别的智能助手确实具有颠覆现有应用市场格局的潜力，它们可能会对现有的应用流量及广告业务构成威胁。不过，与此同时，这些新技术也可能会带来新的商业机会。\n然而，报告强调由于\"围墙生态系统\"或安全问题，这也面临挑战。\n高盛持续关注字节跳动那些竞争激烈的领域（如社交、音乐、交易、即时通讯等领域）中利用人工智能技术所面临的挑战，以及这些挑战可能对其业务发展带来的影响。\n事实上，在这些领域，字节跳动的应用程序最近在iOS系统的免费国内应用下载榜单中一直名列前茅。\nAI推理需求爆发：日均token处理量突破50万亿\n字节跳动18日宣布，豆包大模型的日均token使用量已超过50万亿（相比10月的30万亿），在中国排名第一，全球排名第三，凸显AI采用和token使用的持续强劲势头。\n字节跳动的火山引擎此前宣布，其MaaS目前为80%的顶级快消品牌、90%的主要汽车OEM、80%的领先券商、70%的中国顶尖985大学以及全球出货量前10大手机制造商中的9家提供服务。\n该公司预计2025财年收入将超过200亿元人民币，较去年翻倍。\n高盛预计中国云服务商2026年资本支出将进一步增长20%至约5000亿元人民币水平，其中用于国产芯片/算力的比例将大幅提高（从2025财年估计的20-30%提升至2026财年的40%）。\n中国多模态模型加速全球渗透\n中国AI模型正通过成本、开源和速度优势加速全球市场渗透。\n12月中旬，BBAT(百度、字节跳动、阿里巴巴、腾讯)分别发布了新的多模态模型：\n\n阿里巴巴(12月16日)：发布视频生成模型Wan2.6新版本，支持多镜头叙事和稳定的多角色对话，可生成15秒1080p高清视频。通义App正式接入高德地图，标志着其向生活/工作伙伴演进的又一里程碑。\n腾讯(12月17日)：发布混元WorldPlay 1.5，这是一个流式视频扩散模型，能够实现具有长期几何一致性的实时交互式世界建模。\n字节跳动(12月18日)：发布豆包-Seed-1.8和视频生成模型Seedance 1.5 Pro，这是一个用于从文本或图像联合生成音频-视频的多模态模型。\n\n随着与全球企业在多模态能力方面的差距缩小，高盛认为中国AI模型通过开源方式以及具有竞争力的定价和速度来实现差异化。\n研报根据数据对比显示，快手的可灵2.5 Turbo比谷歌的Veo 3/OpenAI的Sora 2便宜得多，且性能具有竞争力。\n高盛预计，全球AI视频生成模型总体可寻址市场(TAM)将从2025年的10亿美元增长至2033年的390亿美元，8年复合增长率达56%。具体而言：\n\n\n专业用户市场：预计2025年约7亿美元，占总TAM的64%，到2033年将扩展至170亿美元，8年复合增长率为49%，主要由付费用户比例上升和ARPU增长推动。\n企业用户市场：预计从2025年的约4亿美元扩展至2033年的220亿美元，8年复合增长率为66%，届时将占总TAM的57%，主要受数字视频广告制作和影视娱乐视频制作中AI渗透率提升驱动。\n\n\n在全球基础模型市场方面，高盛认为中国厂商的收入份额在2025年约为4%，随着模型能力的稳步提升和定价改善(token定价折扣缩小)，预计到2029年将稳步增长至7%。\n芯片供应格局演变与资本支出展望\n高盛认为，中国大型云计算企业采用多芯片组合的方式，无疑为中国的AI云产业发展带来了新的机遇——这些企业不再完全依赖海外芯片供应。\n高盛估计BBAT（百度、字节跳动、阿里巴巴、腾讯）2025年的总资本支出将超过4000亿元人民币（同比增长62%）。\n对于2026年，研报预计中国大型互联网企业的资本支出规模将再增长20%，其中相当大一部分资金将用于采购国产芯片或用于相关计算设施的建设。\n高盛认为，今年阿里巴巴的资本支出规模明显高于腾讯，这一现象主要得益于阿里巴巴在人工智能基础设施及全栈技术方面的强大实力，这与谷歌拥有专用TPU所形成的全栈技术优势类似。\n同时分析师继续看好中国大型互联网企业的资本支出前景。根据预测，2026年至2028年期间阿里巴巴的资本支出规模将在业内处于较高水平，预计达到4600亿元人民币。\n研报指出，更高的计算效率可能提升AI资本开支向收入的转化率，推动云收入增长率在强劲的训练后或推理需求的支撑下加速。\n基于对AI全栈能力、云计算需求爆发和数据中心算力扩张的判断，高盛给出明确的行业偏好排序：首选云计算/数据中心，第二则是游戏行业，第三是移动出行，最后则是电商行业。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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