阿里困在“菜篮子”里？资本为何看不上它的本地生活野心

硬核投研资讯2025-12-24

2024年，阿里巴巴高调宣布“All in AI”，股价一度应声上涨，市场仿佛看到了那个曾经引领中国互联网浪潮的“科技巨头”回归。然而，没过多久，投资者的热情便迅速冷却——不是因为AI进展不及预期，而是因为大家发现：阿里一边喊着要做大模型、建云基础设施，一边却还在外卖、买菜、到店这些“烟火气”十足的赛道里死磕美团。资本市场对此颇为不满。在他们看来，阿里作为市值曾超5000亿美元的平台型公司，理应...

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Why capital looks down on its local life ambitions","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":1.96,"09988":1.96,"ALBmain":0.6},"content_text":"2024年，阿里巴巴高调宣布“All in AI”，股价一度应声上涨，市场仿佛看到了那个曾经引领中国互联网浪潮的“科技巨头”回归。然而，没过多久，投资者的热情便迅速冷却——不是因为AI进展不及预期，而是因为大家发现：阿里一边喊着要做大模型、建云基础设施，一边却还在外卖、买菜、到店这些“烟火气”十足的赛道里死磕美团。资本市场对此颇为不满。在他们看来，阿里作为市值曾超5000亿美元的平台型公司，理应聚焦于硬科技、云计算、全球化等“高维战场”，而不是把宝贵资源砸进毛利率不到10%、烧钱无底洞的本地生活。于是，一个尖锐的问题浮出水面：阿里执着于外卖和菜篮子，到底是战略定力，还是格局受限？一、资本的逻辑：阿里不该“向下沉”在机构投资者眼中，本地生活是一门“苦生意”——履约成本高、用户忠诚度低、竞争激烈且监管敏感。即便做到行业第一，也难有高估值。美团市盈率长期在20倍上下徘徊，而同期的AI芯片公司、云服务商动辄50倍甚至更高。阿里2023年重启“本地生活”战略，整合饿了么、高鑫零售、淘鲜达、天猫超市等资源，试图打造“从线上到线下、从餐饮到日百”的全场景闭环。但这一动作，在资本市场看来，更像是“防御性内卷”：不是为了增长，而是为了不让美团独大。更关键的是，阿里当前的核心优势并不在本地生活。其用户心智仍集中在电商和支付，而美团在外卖领域已建立60%+的市场份额、数百万骑手网络、成熟的商户运营体系——这些都不是靠补贴或流量就能快速复制的。因此，当阿里财报中反复强调“本地生活订单同比增长XX%”时，投资者看到的不是增长故事，而是资源错配的风险：本可用于通义大模型训练、阿里云国际扩张、半导体投资的资金，正在被分散到一场胜算不高的巷战中。二、阿里的逻辑：本地生活是“护城河”，不是“副业”但如果我们跳出资本视角，站在阿里自身战略层面看，事情或许没那么简单。首先，本地生活是高频入口。淘宝、天猫的打开频次正在下降，而外卖、买菜每天发生。对阿里而言，守住这个入口，意味着防止用户全面流向抖音、美团甚至微信生态。其次，数据与场景反哺AI。通义千问需要真实世界的交互数据，而本地生活正是AI落地的最佳试验场——智能调度、需求预测、动态定价、客服机器人……这些场景既能验证技术，也能产生商业价值。更重要的是，阿里并非只做外卖。它真正想构建的，是一个“消费操作系统”：用户在淘宝下单衣服，在饿了么点餐，在高鑫买菜，在飞猪订酒店——所有行为都在阿里生态内完成，形成数据闭环与交叉销售。换句话说，阿里要的不是“打败美团”，而是“不让任何一块消费场景掉队”。这是一种平台级的防御焦虑，而非单纯的业务扩张冲动。三、问题不在赛道，而在节奏与ROI客观地说，本地生活本身并非“坏生意”。美团证明了它能盈利，拼多多通过“多多买菜”也验证了下沉市场的潜力。问题在于：阿里入局太晚，打法又太重。饿了么多年未能突破，如今再投入百亿补贴，边际效益已大幅递减。而与此同时，阿里云的增长放缓、国际电商业务承压、AI商业化尚处早期——多重压力下，投资者自然希望公司“抓大放小”。资本真正反感的，不是阿里做本地生活，而是在核心科技尚未形成绝对优势时，却把大量精力耗在低毛利、高竞争的红海战场。这给人一种“战略焦灼、方向模糊”的印象。对比腾讯：同样面临增长瓶颈，但选择All in视频号+AI+游戏全球化，几乎完全退出本地生活；再看百度，虽押注自动驾驶多年未盈利，但至少讲的是“未来科技”故事，估值逻辑清晰。而阿里，似乎既想当“科技公司”，又放不下“零售帝国”的执念。这种身份撕裂，正是当前估值折价的核心原因。四、破局关键：用AI重新定义本地生活其实，阿里未必没有机会翻盘——前提是，它必须用AI重构本地生活的底层逻辑，而不是重复美团的老路。想象一下：如果通义大模型能实现“千人千面”的本地推荐引擎，根据用户历史行为、天气、交通、库存实时生成个性化套餐；如果无人配送车+智能仓储将履约成本降低30%；如果AI客服+自动化商家工具大幅提升平台效率……那么，本地生活就不再是“苦生意”，而成为AI落地的标杆场景。这，才是资本愿意买单的故事。可惜目前来看，阿里的本地生活与AI之间，仍像是“两张皮”——前者在烧钱抢份额，后者在实验室发论文。两者尚未形成真正的协同效应。五、写给理性投资者：等待“战略聚焦”的信号当前阿里股价约147港元，对应PE约21倍，若公司继续在多个战场平均用力，估值可能长期承压。但若未来几个季度，阿里能明确传递出以下信号：本地生活不再追求GMV规模，而是聚焦单位经济模型优化；AI与核心业务（云、电商、本地）深度融合，出现可量化的效率提升；剥离非核心资产，回笼资金聚焦“AI+全球化”主航道；那么，市场情绪有望逆转，估值修复空间巨大。结语：阿里不是不能做本地生活，而是不能“只为做本地生活而做”。在AI时代，所有传统业务都需要被重新定义。资本不反对烟火气，但反对没有技术杠杆的烟火气。当阿里能用大模型调度一单外卖、用算法优化一座仓库、用数据连接一个社区——那时，菜篮子里装的，就不再是青菜萝卜，而是未来的想象力。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.38.0","shortVersion":"4.38.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2593444307","isCrawlerRequest":true}