硅谷AI投资人 Gavin Baker ：AI 模型竞争格局将在2026 年1季度变天

华芯资本AI小组...2025-12-24

前段时间，谷歌的 TPU 可谓风头无两，不仅训练出了惊艳行业的 Gemini3，另一个科技巨头 Meta 也宣布准备采用谷歌的相关技术。这不禁让人疑问，谷歌的 TPU 是不是要开始抢占英伟达 GPU 的市场了？英伟达是否从此不再独领风骚？针对这些问题，知名科技投资人 Gavin Baker 在一场播客中分享了他的看法，包括了四大话题：话题1：谷歌 TPU 和英伟达的 GPU 谁会赢？话题2：...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251224143658a6c90d06&s=b><strong>华芯资本AI小组...</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>前段时间，谷歌的 TPU 可谓风头无两，不仅训练出了惊艳行业的 Gemini3，另一个科技巨头 Meta 也宣布准备采用谷歌的相关技术。这不禁让人疑问，谷歌的 TPU 是不是要开始抢占英伟达 GPU 的市场了？英伟达是否从此不再独领风骚？针对这些问题，知名科技投资人 Gavin Baker 在一场播客中分享了他的看法，包括了四大话题：话题1：谷歌 TPU 和英伟达的 GPU 谁会赢？话题2：...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251224143658a6c90d06&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2360107168.USD","symbol_name":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) 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芯片大规模部署，率先用上这些算力的 AI 公司会快速拉开与同行的差距。由此可见，2026 年一季度 AI 模型的竞争格局会大变天。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"LU2360107168.USD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","SG9999014567.USD":"UOB UNITED INCOME FOCUS TRUST FUND (USD) ACC","LU2237443465.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU1153585028.USD":"BGF GLOBAL LONG-HORIZON EQUITY  \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU1674673691.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU0210533765.USD":"JPM GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2357125470.USD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CLASSIC RH\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU1301847155.USD":"BGF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME FUND \"A4G\" (USD) INC","LU1674673428.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","SG9999015358.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust 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4 个月前，GB200 芯片才完成大规模部署。这是因为其设计过于激进，导致算力集群的硬件和软件层面都需要大量调整。比如，和 H200 相比，GB200 的冷却方式从风冷改为液冷，机架重量翻了 3 倍，用电功率翻了 4 倍。对于已适配 H200 的算力集群来说，要让 GB200 运行，得做很多改造，像液冷系统更复杂，算力集群地板得改造以支撑更重的机架，电源功率也要大幅改造才能支撑 4 倍的能耗，同时软件层面也需大量调整，这些都非常耗时。不过，激进的设计也带来了性能的大幅提升。据英伟达黄仁勋透露，GB200 的效率是 H200 的 30 倍以上。Gavin 表示，用 20 万张 GB200 芯片训练出的模型会非常厉害，很可能超出所有人想象。那这样的模型何时推出呢？Gavin 认为，马斯克的 xAI 大概率会在 2026 年年初成为第一个训练出 “Blackwell 模型” 的公司，这也和马斯克此前称 2026 年一季度推出 Grok5 的消息对应上了。回到谷歌和英伟达的对比，Gavin 的观点是，只要 Blackwell 开始大规模部署，谷歌 TPU 的优势将不复存在，英伟达会重夺领先。有人可能会问，谷歌也可以升级芯片，最新的 TPUv7 说不定很厉害。但 Gavin 认为很难，因为谷歌设计相对保守，而且 AI 芯片系统复杂度越来越高。黄仁勋提到，光 GB200 就有上千个零件，优化性能不能只靠优化芯片单点，要从芯片、存储到传输等多环节协同优化，也就是他常说的 “Co-design”。在如此复杂的系统工程面前，谷歌恐怕很难跟上英伟达的节奏。话题 2：2026 年 1 季度，AI 模型竞争格局为何变、怎么变？训练顶尖 AI 模型并非易事，不是有钱就能搞定。科技巨头 Meta 砸了很多钱也没成功，微软和亚马逊虽有自己的模型，但暂时未全面领先。从这个角度看，中国的开源模型如 Deepseek 和千问做得相当不错，但这个格局很可能很快被打破。Gavin 认为，目前全世界最先进的 AI 实验室是 OpenAI、Anthropic、xAI 和 Gemini 团队，它们的领先幅度还不大，主要是被算力卡住了。整个行业都在等 Blackwell 芯片的大规模部署。有人可能疑问，为何不能靠堆更多 H200 芯片来提升算力，非要等 Blackwell？因为让 20 万张卡协同工作达到 “coherent” 已是极限。马斯克曾打比方，搭建 10 万张卡的算力集群就像指挥 5 万人的交响乐团，可想而知搭建 20 万张卡的算力集群有多难。之前有人说单卡算力不够就堆量，其实行不通。再看以算法和效率著称的 Deepseek，其最新模型和 Gemini3 Pro 等世界顶尖模型还有差距，原因之一就是算力不足。所以，算力对模型能否再上台阶至关重要。一旦 Blackwell 芯片大规模部署，率先用上这些算力的 AI 公司会快速拉开与同行的差距。前面提到率先实现 Blackwell 大规模部署的是马斯克的 xAI，他们准备在 2026 年一季度推出的 Grok5 模型，大概率是用 Blackwell 芯片训练的。由此可见，2026 年一季度 AI 模型的竞争格局会大变天。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2593424891","isCrawlerRequest":true}