传媒互联网行业2026年度投资策略：AI+出海+IP 科技与内容生态交相辉映

长城证券2025-12-24

核心观点AI应用：受益于底层多模态大模型能力持续升级以及算力成本下探，2025年AI应用步入商业化加速阶段，国内外主要厂商Tokens调用量均实现快速增长，如字节跳动旗下豆包大模型在9月底的Tokens调用量较5月份激增超80%，谷歌10月Gemini调用量较5月增长超33%。展望2026年，我们建议重点关注（1）AI与老产品的融合升级：如微信作为国民级APP，具备朋友圈、公众号、小程序、视频号、...

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Survival》等产品于海外维持强劲表现，游戏出海打开行业成长空间；（2）影视出海：微短剧加速出海，根据SensorTower，2025年我国海外短剧应用海外下载量和收入持续保持高位，新形式内容持续吸引海外内容消费者。同时，建议重点关注AI应用出海进展，相较国内，海外用户对于软件付费意愿更高，国内AI产品有望凭借其高产品力以及性价比迎来快速增长，如截至25Q3快手可灵海外收入占比约为70%，领跑我国AI应用出海赛道，同时建议关注美图、万兴科技等公司出海进展。IP内容消费：类似“口红效应”，我们认为潮玩等IP内容衍生品行业于当前宏观背景下有望维持增长韧性。根据弗若斯特沙利文，中国IP玩具市场规模将从2025年的578亿元增至2028年的911亿元，复合增速达17.02%。国内消费者对潮玩认可度持续提升，同时IP方持续加强衍生品布局，如2025年《哪咤2》以及《浪浪山小妖怪》两部动画影片均采取电影+IP衍生协同布局，持续验证优质IP衍生品需求，国内持续破圈。国外方面，以泡泡玛特为代表的潮玩公司加速海外布局，25H1海外收入达55.93 亿元，同比增长440%，且下半年海外开店呈加速趋势。同时，IP产业供应链日趋成熟，制造业优势不断向IP行业渗透，我们认为后续IP衍生品具备产能释放的条件。核心标的：（1）港股互联网：阿里巴巴、腾讯控股、快手、哔哩哔哩、百度集团、美团；（2）AI应用：焦点科技、蓝色光标、易点天下、值得买、迈富时、粉笔、天下秀；（3）游戏：三七互娱、完美世界、吉比特、巨人网络、恺英网络、世纪华通；（4）IP：泡泡玛特、中文在线、阅文集团；（5）影视院线：光线传媒、华策影视、芒果超媒等公司。风险提示：AI应用商业化不及预期，海外市场进展不及预期，行业监管风险，宏观经济不及预期。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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