2026港股科技投资图谱：从算力到终端四大AI主线引领结构性行情

智通财经2025-12-24

智通财经获悉，光大证券发布2026年港股TMT投资策略，研报称，2026年，港股市场将在估值修复、盈利增长、主线回归三重驱动下，迎来“戴维斯双击”。建立的“四大AI主线”分析框架，旨在帮助投资者穿越迷雾，系统性把握港股科技在AI时代的结构性机遇。建议遵循“算力筑基→应用开花→终端与机器人兑现”的产业节奏，精选各主线下的领军者进行配置。具体观点认为，恒生指数有望重拾升势，恒生科技指数的向上弹性有望...

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AI终端”四大核心主线构成的完整投资图谱，为捕捉AI浪潮下的港股机遇提供清晰导航。主线一：互联网大厂——生态价值重估，决胜AI时代AI正驱动互联网巨头从流量竞争升维至生态能力竞争。云业务因AI需求而加速（资本开支翻倍，利润率稳健）；广告因AI提效而即时变现（点击率提升15%-20%）；生态入口因AIAgent而面临重构。投资应关注有能力将技术、数据与场景闭环的巨头，如稳固基本盘并开拓AI入口的腾讯控股、云业务弹性最大的阿里巴巴-W、以及视频AI商业化领先的快手。主线二：AI算力产业链——“强现实”回击“泡沫论”龙头财报持续超预期，云厂商Capex强度持续且芯片供给紧张，全球算力高景气有力回击“泡沫论”。超前基建投资与高ROI之间存在天然时滞，高投入具备合理性和持续性，该行坚定认为AI产业循环必将打通。英伟达链&谷歌链&国产链差异化布局，该行的梳理聚焦三层确定性机会：1）受益于全球技术升级的通信组网（光模块/连接器）；2）承接国产替代需求的半导体制造（晶圆代工）；3）满足算力功耗与性能升级的关键设备与材料（封装设备、覆铜板、GaN电源）。主线三：AI应用——商业化验证关键期，聚焦落地与变现AI应用投资已进入“用业绩说话”的阶段。该行在SaaS、内容生态、广告营销等关键赛道看到清晰的商业化加速信号：企业工具向“智能体”进化驱动ARPU提升，AIGC降低创作门槛与成本，推动用户与收入同步增长；程序化广告的“AI飞轮”开始释放利润，推动估值与基本面剪刀差收敛。主线四：AI端侧与机器人——迎接硬件奇点与量产拐点2026年将是AI定义硬件的元年与机器人规模化量产的拐点。苹果、小米等硬件厂商加码AI软实力（如Apple Intelligence、MiMo大模型），推动端侧算力升级；OpenAI、谷歌等科技巨头跨界布局硬件（如AIPin、TPU），该行从全球巨头战略出发，穿透至供应链核心环节：光学、声学、电机、代工，揭示了港股龙头公司如何深度绑定全球创新浪潮。系统梳理了从整机龙头到核心零部件的机器人产业链投资地图，上游扩产+资本赋能加速，特斯拉Optimus、优必选等人形机器人2026年迈向“万台级量产”产业空间广阔。具体到投资标的上：舜宇光学科技：全球手机与车载光学龙头。短期需关注存储涨价对安卓光学业务的利润影响。亮点：1）A客户项目份额提升与品类扩张；2）车载镜头/模组随智驾渗透而高速增长。联想集团：全球AIPC份额第一（25Q3 31.1%）估值提升需等待两大催化剂：1）服务器（ISG）业务利润转正；2）AIPC需求进一步释放。康耐特光学：国内树脂眼镜镜片制造商龙头，依托“高折射率技术+C2M 定制模式”构建核心壁垒，受益于传统视光眼镜量价齐升，传统主业稳健增长，AI/AR眼镜构筑二次成长曲线。瑞声科技：声、光、电机平台型公司，关注存储涨价的利润传导。亮点：1）A客户成长逻辑清晰，凭借声学、马达、散热等领域的综合能力，伴随A客户手机、平板、电脑及机器人等硬件形态多元化、规格升级；2）卡位AI端侧，提供业绩弹性；3）机器人灵巧手系统级方案，并获多项定点Ø丘钛科技：全球摄像模组头部供应商。1）作为无人机/运动相机龙头的核心供应商，受益IoT高增长；2）指纹识别业务结构改善；3）TDK微型驱动器垂直链条整合。比亚迪电子：全球精密制造龙头，26年成长兑现取决于： 1）苹果业务量价齐升与利润率爬坡；2）汽车悬架与智驾新品放量；3）AI服务器订单交付进展。ØTCL电子： TV主业通过“大屏化”持续优化结构，光伏与互联网业务提供额外增长。旗下雷鸟品牌布局AI端侧硬件。小米集团：“人车家+AI”战略打开长期增长空间。短期受存储涨价与竞争压制，需等待新车发布、存储拐点、等催化剂。高伟电子：港股果链高纯度标的。2H25 iPhone 光学升级+公司份额提升驱动25年业绩增长； 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2026港股科技投资图谱：从算力到终端 四大AI主线引领结构性行情

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2026港股科技投资图谱：从算力到终端四大AI主线引领结构性行情