违约、坏账、赎回潮“此起彼伏”，美国的“万亿私募信贷大故事”正在崩塌

华尔街见闻12-22 08:21

美国私募信贷市场——这一曾被华尔街鼓吹为个人投资者“避风港”和稳定收益来源的万亿级领域，正面临着基本面恶化与信心崩塌的双重冲击，由此引发的资产重估正在刺破行业的繁荣泡沫。作为这一危机的最新注脚，私募信贷巨头Blue Owl Capital近日因风险考量，退出了为甲骨文一项价值100亿美元的AI数据中心项目提供融资的谈判，这一消息迅速引发了市场对大规模基础设施融资链条断裂的恐慌。该事件不仅暴露了...

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redemptions is \"one after another\", and the \"trillion-dollar private equity credit story\" in the United States is collapsing","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"PIK":1,"BDC":1,"ORCL":0.67,"NAV":1},"content_text":"美国私募信贷市场——这一曾被华尔街鼓吹为个人投资者“避风港”和稳定收益来源的万亿级领域，正面临着基本面恶化与信心崩塌的双重冲击，由此引发的资产重估正在刺破行业的繁荣泡沫。\n作为这一危机的最新注脚，私募信贷巨头Blue Owl Capital近日因风险考量，退出了为甲骨文一项价值100亿美元的AI数据中心项目提供融资的谈判，这一消息迅速引发了市场对大规模基础设施融资链条断裂的恐慌。该事件不仅暴露了信贷市场对科技巨头激进资本支出的态度已发生根本性逆转，更直接导致甲骨文股价承压，其主要合作伙伴及整体科技板块随之波动。\n这一融资受阻事件并非孤例，而是整个私募信贷行业风险蔓延的缩影。随着违约率上升和高利率环境下的借款人压力显现，包括KKR、贝莱德在内的顶级资产管理公司旗下面对个人投资者的商业发展公司（BDC）正遭遇股价暴跌、坏账激增和赎回压力的多重围剿。\n这场风波对整个规模超过2万亿美元的私募信贷行业构成考验。该行业此前主要面向大型机构投资者和富裕个人，但BDC的困境显示，当个人投资者——他们往往在错误时机退出——进入这一市场时，可能面临何等代价。\n此外，摩根大通首席执行官Jamie Dimon警告称\"看到一只蟑螂时，可能还有更多\"，暗指1.7万亿美元私募信贷市场存在系统性风险。如今这一警告似乎正在逐一应验。\n百亿融资告吹：Blue Owl的“急刹车”\n华尔街见闻此前提及，Blue Owl Capital决定不再支持甲骨文位于密歇根州的100亿美元数据中心项目，成为了引爆市场焦虑的导火索。据金融时报援引知情人士消息，尽管甲骨文方面坚称谈判仍在按计划进行且已选定其他合作伙伴，但Blue Owl退出的核心原因在于随着市场情绪转变，贷款方开始要求实施更严格的租赁和债务条款，其担忧项目执行风险及甲骨文日益攀升的债务水平。\n这一事件直接揭示了AI基础设施建设资金链的脆弱性。此前，Blue Owl等私募机构通常通过投入自有资金并筹集数十亿美元债务来建设设施，并将其租赁给甲骨文等科技巨头。然而，随着谈判破裂，这种依赖特定私募资本合作伙伴进行资产负债表外融资的模式正面临严峻考验。分析指出，当私募信贷机构开始对AI基础设施项目说“不”时，整个AI投资周期的可持续性将面临重大疑问。受此影响，甲骨文的五年期信用违约掉期（CDS）成本已飙升至2009年以来最高水平。\nBDC板块重挫：散户投资者的“噩梦”\n在更广泛的公开市场上，主要服务于个人投资者的商业发展公司（BDC）正在经历惨痛的一年。\n据华尔街日报报道，尽管标普500指数今年上涨了约16%，但包括FS KKR Capital在内的许多大型BDC股价却出现了两位数的大幅下跌。VanEck的一只跟踪BDC股票的ETF年内已下跌近6%，与大盘的上涨形成鲜明对比。\n长期以来，华尔街基金经理一直致力于将私募信贷产品纳入401(k)计划，推动私募市场的“民主化”，吸引散户投资者入场。BDC通过向评级较低的中型企业提供高息贷款，并将收入作为股息支付给投资者，其管理资产自2020年以来已增加两倍多至约4500亿美元。\n然而，如今这一热门投资产品正对试图在错误时间退出的投资者施以重罚。随着利率变动影响收入预期，以及信贷质量恶化，这些曾经被视为提供稳定现金流的工具正面临价值重估。\n坏账与丑闻：巨头财报中的“蟑螂”\n尽管BDC管理者声称大部分投资依然稳健，但数据层面的恶化已不容忽视。\n据Raymond James研究显示，KKR旗下的BDC——FS KKR Capital的股价今年已下跌约33%。最为令人担忧的是，其不良贷款中包含了该基金最大的单一持仓，即对清洁公司Kellermeyer Bergensons Services的3.5亿美元投资，该笔投资占基金资产的2%以上。\n截至9月，FS KKR Capital的不良贷款率已从1月的3.5%升至约5%，且有14.4%的收入来自“实物支付”（PIK）而非现金，这通常是借款人现金流紧张的信号。\n类似的困境也出现在贝莱德身上。贝莱德旗下管理约18亿美元资产的BDC在9月报告称，有7%的贷款处于违约状态。此前，该基金在房屋维修公司Renovo Home Partners进入清算后，对其1100万美元的贷款计提了损失，而在公司破产几周前，贝莱德还曾按面值对其进行估值。\n此外，汽车零部件供应商First Brands涉嫌欺诈和破产的丑闻也波及了持有其大量债务的Great Elm Capital，导致后者出现巨额未实现损失。\n流动性困局：估值倒挂与赎回难题\n除了信贷质量恶化，流动性危机和估值争议也是加速市场崩塌的关键因素。\nBlue Owl试图将其面向个人投资者的私有BDC与公开交易的BDC合并的计划通过失败，便是一个典型案例。据华尔街日报报道，由于公开交易的BDC股价远低于净资产价值（NAV），且私有基金面临赎回压力，Blue Owl原本希望通过合并解决问题。\n然而，在市场对交易提出强烈质疑且股价进一步下跌至低于净资产价值14%后，Blue 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