美光财报爆表示警：2026年恐爆发史上最严重短缺、AI推升存储器芯片需求

爱集微12-21 07:52

美国存储器大厂美光科技 (MU-US) 上周公布亮眼财报，不仅最新一季业绩大幅超越市场预期，对当前季度的展望同样强劲。然而，这份“爆表”成绩单，正凸显科技硬体产业正在酝酿的一项重大变化：2026 年全球存储器芯片恐出现严重短缺，规模甚至可能超越 2020 至 2021 年疫情期间的芯片供应危机。根据《巴隆周刊》报导，这样的趋势对存储器制造商如美光而言是明显利多，但对涵盖智能手机、PC、汽车等...

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chips","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDD":0.6,"MU":1.96,"NVDU":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6},"content_text":"美国存储器大厂美光科技 (MU-US) 上周公布亮眼财报，不仅最新一季业绩大幅超越市场预期，对当前季度的展望同样强劲。然而，这份“爆表”成绩单，正凸显科技硬体产业正在酝酿的一项重大变化：2026 年全球存储器芯片恐出现严重短缺，规模甚至可能超越 2020 至 2021 年疫情期间的芯片供应危机。根据《巴隆周刊》报导，这样的趋势对存储器制造商如美光而言是明显利多，但对涵盖智能手机、PC、汽车等终端产品的下游客户来说，却可能带来成本上升与供应压力。长期以来，存储器芯片被视为高度商品化的产业，价格与库存向来呈现剧烈循环。美光、SK 海力士（SK Hynix）与三星电子三大存储器厂，过去经常面临营收与毛利率大起大落的情况。以美光为例，在 2023 会计年度第二季，其营收年减 53%，毛利率一度转为大幅负值；但最新财报显示，营收年增 57%，毛利率强势回升至 56%。美光更预测，本季营收将年增 132%，毛利率上看 68%，逼近英伟达 (NVDA-US) 在芯片产业中的顶尖水准。对于固定成本相当高的存储器公司而言，一旦销售成长加速，获利往往会以更快速度放大。AI 服务器吞噬存储器产能然而，人工智能（AI）投资热潮，已打断存储器产业过往的景气循环。AI 服务器对存储器的需求极为庞大，以英伟达的 DGX GB300 服务器机柜为例，单一系统就使用多达 20TB 的高频宽存储器（HBM），另搭载 17TB 的 DDR 存储器。而 DDR 存储器同时也是智能手机、个人电脑与汽车等各类电子产品不可或缺的关键芯片，进一步加剧供需紧张。根据市调机构 IDC 统计，全球服务器市场第三季年增 61%，规模达 1,120 亿美元。随着 AI 资料中心资本支出快速膨胀，英伟达仍是最大赢家，但存储器芯片厂紧追在后。由于 HBM 价格高、毛利率优渥，包含美光在内的存储器制造商，正尽可能将产能转向 HBM。HBM 抢产能DDR 更加吃紧美光已宣布，其 2026 会计年度（至 8 月止）的 HBM 产能全数售罄，2027 年的订单也迅速填满；SK 海力士与三星同样呈现满单状态。为了因应供应压力，美光甚至关闭经营多年的消费型品牌 Crucial。尽管三大存储器厂近两年资本支出创高、积极扩产，但新晶圆厂短期内仍无法投产，难以缓解即将到来的存储器短缺。更棘手的是，HBM 制程会排挤传统 DDR 产能。每生产 1GB 的 HBM，约需牺牲 3GB 的 DDR，而下一代 HBM 的比例还可能进一步提高。OpenAI 与英伟达加剧芯片竞逐在这场存储器芯片竞赛中，OpenAI 成为关键变数。去年 10 月，OpenAI 与三星、SK 海力士签署协议，为其规模高达 5,000 亿美元的“星际之门”（Stargate）AI 资料中心计划，预留全球超过三分之一的存储器产能，进一步压缩其他客户的取得空间。另一方面，英伟达为降低资料中心耗电，改在 DGX GB300 中采用低功耗 DDR，让 AI 服务器的存储器需求，直接与高阶智能手机抢用相同芯片。同时，消费性电子市场也积极推动“装置端 AI”，高阶手机与笔电对存储器容量的需求持续攀升。2026 年恐重演疫情芯片荒美光股价今年已累计上涨 218%，市场对其亮眼表现并不意外，但即将到来的芯片短缺，仍可能冲击整体科技产业。分析指出，当过多需求争抢有限的存储器芯片，恐重演 2020 至 2021 年的芯片荒。当时即使汽车需求强劲，美国车市年销量仍仅约 1,500 万辆，远低于疫情前水准。根据 Alphasense 统计，2020 至 2022 年财报电话会议中，提及“芯片供应链问题”的次数高达 2,821 次，远高于近三年的 459 次，市场预期相关讨论很快将再度升温。存储器价格飙升手机市场承压Counterpoint Research 估计，存储器价格在第四季季增约 50%，并将在 2026 年上半年再上涨约 40%。苹果 (AAPL-US) 与三星凭藉规模与议价能力，仍有空间维持出货，但其他品牌恐难以承受成本压力。Counterpoint 资深分析师 Wang Yang 指出，资源有限的厂商将被迫在市占率与利润率之间做出艰难取舍。其中，中国平价 Android 手机品牌预期受创最深；就连苹果与三星，也可能透过降规其他零组件来因应。Counterpoint 已下修预测，认为 2026 年全球智能手机出货量，将因存储器短缺与售价上升而下滑。对曾历经疫情芯片荒的产业老手而言，2026 年甚至 2027 年，恐怕会既熟悉又令人沮丧；而若历史经验可循，当存储器景气反转时，修正幅度同样可能相当惊人。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"2","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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