“AI取代搜索”是伪命题？市场发现：谷歌才是对的！

华尔街见闻12-21 16:51

市场正逐步认识到“AI取代搜索”可能是一个伪命题。当OpenAI因其复杂的推理能力与用户实际的简单查询需求错配而面临增长瓶颈、用户增速不及预期时，谷歌“搜索与AI双轨并行”的策略显现出优势。人工智能短期内无法取代搜索引擎，这一行业共识正深刻改变科技巨头的战略逻辑。曾被认为步伐保守的谷歌，其“双轨并行”策略，即在持续优化搜索业务的同时，独立发展Gemini等AI对话产品，如今反显出其结构性优势。而...

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Market Discovery: Google is Right!","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/315802b41564b68b01e39e6f830f6bb9","symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":1.92,"USJW.SI":0.6},"content_text":"市场正逐步认识到“AI取代搜索”可能是一个伪命题。当OpenAI因其复杂的推理能力与用户实际的简单查询需求错配而面临增长瓶颈、用户增速不及预期时，谷歌“搜索与AI双轨并行”的策略显现出优势。人工智能短期内无法取代搜索引擎，这一行业共识正深刻改变科技巨头的战略逻辑。曾被认为步伐保守的谷歌，其“双轨并行”策略，即在持续优化搜索业务的同时，独立发展Gemini等AI对话产品，如今反显出其结构性优势。而全力押注聊天机器人的OpenAI，却面临技术突破与用户真实需求错位的增长瓶颈。据The Information披露，OpenAI内部近期发现，尽管公司在推理模型等核心技术上持续突破，但多数用户仍仅将ChatGPT用于简单查询，而非处理其擅长的复杂科学或数学问题。此前，CEO山姆·阿尔特曼向团队发出“红色警报”，要求重新聚焦产品对主流用户的吸引力。与之相对，谷歌CEO桑达尔·皮查伊在今年4月的分析师电话会议上明确表示，尽管搜索与Gemini存在“部分功能重叠”，但两者对应“截然不同的使用场景”，正式确立了公司搜索与AI业务并行发展的战略路线。这一策略使谷歌能够凭借现有分发渠道与基础设施成本优势，在市场竞争中快速跟进。战略差异已直接体现在增长数据与资本市场表现上。谷歌凭借其整合优势持续扩大AI产品覆盖，而OpenAI尽管年化收入突破190亿美元，其用户增长仍落后于年初设定的10亿目标。值得注意的是，OpenAI近期正寻求以7500亿美元估值进行新一轮融资，较两个月前的估值水平高出约50%。OpenAI陷入技术与市场需求的错配OpenAI的核心困境在于其研发重心与主流用户需求之间出现明显脱节。公司今年将主要精力投入开发\"推理模型\"，这些模型在处理复杂数学、科学问题方面表现出色，甚至在国际数学奥林匹克竞赛中达到金牌水平。然而，据公司内部员工观察，大多数ChatGPT用户并未利用这些复杂的推理能力。LMArena的AI能力负责人Peter Gostev指出，普通用户更可能询问电影评级等简单问题，而不需要一个\"思考半小时\"的模型。推理模型通常需要数秒甚至数分钟才能生成答案，这对习惯了谷歌秒级搜索结果的用户来说体验并不友好。OpenAI产品负责人Nick Turley将ChatGPT当前以文本为中心的设计比作上世纪80年代的MS-DOS操作系统，认为这限制了用户发现其他功能的能力。应用主管Fidji Simo也承认，ChatGPT需要从文本对话界面转向更具生成性和直观性的用户界面。谷歌策略的先见之明得到验证谷歌维持搜索引擎和AI聊天机器人分离的策略正在得到市场验证。当市场普遍预期AI聊天机器人将取代传统搜索时，谷歌坚持认为两者服务于不同的用户场景。这一判断的核心在于用户行为模式的差异。当用户需要快速、简单的答案时，搜索引擎仍是最佳选择。而AI聊天机器人则更适合处理需要深度分析和推理的复杂问题。Amazon采用了类似策略，其购物网站的搜索引擎与Rufus AI聊天机器人保持独立运营。据The Information报道，谷歌的AI模型在图像生成、代码处理等方面的能力已与ChatGPT不相上下。更重要的是，谷歌拥有搜索、Chrome浏览器和Gmail等强大的分发渠道，以及自研AI芯片带来的成本效率优势，这些都构成了其竞争壁垒。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2593126660","isCrawlerRequest":true}