年终报道∣车企在激烈厮杀中告别2025，未来竞争更残酷

中国基金报12-21 17:52

【导读】车企在激烈厮杀中告别2025，未来竞争更残酷　　“我觉得每一家车企都是战战兢兢的。”近日，小鹏汽车董事长兼CEO何小鹏向中国基金报等媒体表示，中国汽车市场变化太快，一年前很难想到现在的情况，如今也很难想象一年后的局面。　　对比2024年，2025年车企竞争格局再次骤变：造车新势力“一哥”从理想汽车变为零跑汽车，而国内车企“一哥”比亚迪正遭遇上汽集团、吉利汽车等车企快速追赶。　　车企竞争格局...

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ACC","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","LU0543330566.HKD":"TEMPLETON BRIC \"A\" (HKD) ACC"},"translate_title":"Year-end report | Car companies bid farewell to 2025 in fierce fighting, and competition will be even more brutal in the future","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"81211":0.6,"01211":1.94,"02015":1.88,"XPEV":0.89,"002594":1.94,"02238":0.73,"HYDD.SI":0.6,"EVS.SI":0.6,"BYDDY":1.94,"NIO.SI":0.6,"LI":1.88,"09868":0.62},"content_text":"【导读】车企在激烈厮杀中告别2025，未来竞争更残酷　　“我觉得每一家车企都是战战兢兢的。”近日，小鹏汽车董事长兼CEO何小鹏向中国基金报等媒体表示，中国汽车市场变化太快，一年前很难想到现在的情况，如今也很难想象一年后的局面。　　对比2024年，2025年车企竞争格局再次骤变：造车新势力“一哥”从理想汽车变为零跑汽车，而国内车企“一哥”比亚迪正遭遇上汽集团、吉利汽车等车企快速追赶。　　车企竞争格局变化的背后，是国内汽车市场的竞争逻辑出现显著变化。2025年以“限时一口价”为代表的价格战，从上半年愈演愈烈到下半年戛然而止。随后车企集体表态“反内卷”，要求开启“价值战”。　　国内新能源汽车购置税补贴退坡将成为车企竞争更为残酷的新因素。岚图汽车董事长、党委书记卢放表示：“一旦走到这个时刻，燃油车和新能源汽车在某种程度上会迎来终极对决。”　　车企“一哥”轮流坐庄？　　每个领域的“一哥”都会受到各方关注，但国内车企“一哥”的宝座在2025年难言稳固。　　2025年上半年，比亚迪险守国内车企“一哥”宝座，汽车业务营业收入仅比上汽集团多81.70亿元。此前，上汽集团常年稳坐国内车企“一哥”宝座，但2024年在营收、利润、销量、市值等方面均被比亚迪赶超。　　问题在于，比亚迪尚未取得稳固的优势。步入2025年下半年，上汽集团多个月份的销量同比、环比均增长，但比亚迪多个月份的销量同比、环比均下跌，没能复制此前的高速增长态势。　　国内销量是比亚迪整体销量的基本盘，但其2025年7月至11月的月度销量，同比分别下降15.63%、14.29%、15.89%、24.11%、26.81%。　　比亚迪董事长兼CEO王传福近日表示，2025年以来，比亚迪在国内市场的销量下滑，主要是因为当前技术领先度不及前几年，技术成果的市场惊艳度有所下降，叠加行业同质化特征逐渐明显。　　在造车新势力领域，零跑汽车成为新的“一哥”，交付量连续9个月领跑。　　回顾2024年，造车新势力“一哥”是理想汽车，在销量、利润等多个维度都是外界羡慕的“别人家的车企”。步入2025年，理想汽车加快向纯电技术路线转型，但成效不甚理想，已有多个月度的交付量同比、环比均下降。　　理想汽车董事长李想表示，理想i6和理想i8两款纯电SUV累计订单突破10万辆。为解决供应端产能爬坡问题，理想i6的电池供应正式启用“双供应商”模式，预计2026年年初的月产能将稳步提升至2万辆。　　自2015年以来，造车新势力多次“城头变幻大王旗”。零跑汽车董事长兼CEO朱江明表示，一时的领先很正常，“蔚小理”、哪咤、威马都当过造车新势力“一哥”。　　业内人士分析称，国内汽车产业正处于向新能源、智能化转换的关键期，而新能源车企竞争激烈体现在产品“快消品”化，一家车企很难通过一两款爆款车型获得长期优势。　　国内车型更新的速度，从过去的“三年一改款，五年一换代”，变为当前的“半年一改款，一年一换代”。一位车企人士将此形容为“年抛型电车”。　　蔚来董事长兼CEO李斌表示，持续输出爆款车型，估计是每家车企CEO的梦想，但一款车型要想成为爆款，除了产品竞争力，车企的各项体系能力也要跟得上。　　“反内卷”促车企加速求变　　竞争加剧的国内汽车市场，体现在2025年上半年更为残酷的价格战。　　例如，3月至6月，比亚迪连续三次推出促销措施。其中，5月推出“限时一口价”或限时补贴的促销举措，涉及王朝网和海洋网的22款车型。　　中国汽车工业协会发文称，以无序价格战为主要表现形式的“内卷式”竞争，是行业效益下降的重要因素，倡议所有企业严格遵从公平竞争的原则，依法依规开展经营活动。　　2025年下半年以来，国内汽车行业掀起“反内卷”风潮。卢放表示，“反内卷”是企业经营的必选项，关系到企业能否持续为用户提供优质服务。　　岚图汽车在10月上旬递表港交所，让外界看到其是5家季度盈利的新能源车企之一。卢放表示：“没有利润，靠持续输血不健康。岚图汽车对所有产品都有毛利和盈利能力的要求。”　　有别于此前主要关注车企之间的价格战，2025年国内汽车行业的“反内卷”，开始重视对供应商的支付账期过长等问题。　　公开资料显示，多家国内车企2024年对供应商的账期超120天，部分车企超200天，而特斯拉宣称在90天左右。　　6月中旬，一汽、东风、广汽、赛力斯等17家重点车企公开承诺，对供应商的支付账期不超过60天。　　小鹏汽车副董事长兼联席总裁顾宏地表示，车企需要良性竞争的环境，“反内卷”有利于汽车行业健康发展。　　“车企‘内卷’的最大原因是产品同质化严重。”广汽集团产品本部本部长张雄表示，很多车企还是采取“以功能为主导”的开发思维，但进入电动化、智能化时代，用户对汽车的需求拓展至情绪价值。　　有别于多家车企倡导“卷技术”“卷管理”“卷价值”，广汽集团开始“卷生态”，除了加大与华为的合作力度，还联手京东、宁德时代推出了埃安UT super。　　“生态合作是满足客户与市场需求、应对竞争的必选项。”广汽集团总经理合先庆表示，现在汽车技术的迭代速度太快，要和业界的顶尖高手进行生态合作才能跑赢时代。　　不同于此前的供应商合作，合先庆认为，深度共创才是生态合作的核心。广汽集团与华为的合作，包括技术、需求场景的共创，以及从产品定义、市场洞察到研发协同，从交付、服务到营销全链路等。　　决赛阶段竞争更残酷　　“唯一可以确定的是竞争会更加残酷和血腥。”何小鹏基于国内汽车行业的快速变化，给出了对2026年中国汽车市场的研判。　　自2026年1月1日起，中国新能源汽车的购置税开启减半征收模式，而在此之前的10年一直实施全额免征购置税的政策，助力中国新能源汽车产业快速发展。　　多家车企掌门人在受访时表示，从渗透率来看，中国新能源汽车产业已经实现快速成长，购置税退坡将推动该产业的发展逻辑从“政策输血”转向“市场造血”。　　乘联会数据显示，今年前11月，中国新能源汽车的渗透率达47%。其中，自2025年10月开始连续两个月的渗透率均超50%，分别为52.13%、52.27%。　　业内关注2026年的政策助力减弱，是否会导致燃油车的销量快速反弹，并与新能源汽车形成“平分天下”的格局。　　“2026年，燃油车和新能源车的竞争可能更激烈，但新能源汽车的产品力远超燃油车。”卢放表示，新能源汽车产业的发展步伐更快。　　朱江明认为，2026年，国内新能源汽车的市占率会在2025年的基础上稳步提升5%至10%。　　视角转向车企竞争格局，吉利汽车行政总裁及执行董事桂生悦预判，2026年中国汽车产业将迎来“大浪淘沙”的阶段，能够胜出的车企一定要具备更稳定的战略定力、更充分的造车底蕴、更正确的战略方法。　　“我们要做的事是活下去，慢慢来。”李斌表示，车企竞争格局不会在短期尘埃落定。国内新能源汽车产业大约在2024年步入“决赛”阶段，预计要有5年时间才会看清基本轮廓，10年时间才能进入稳态格局。　　有别于已经盈利的比亚迪、吉利汽车、零跑汽车，造车新势力中的NIO\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">蔚来、小鹏汽车试图在2025年第四季度实现首次季度盈利。　　何小鹏认为，由于互联网行业有网络效应，相关企业很容易分出胜负。但汽车市场更大且更持续，会影响大量的供应链和生态企业，竞争可以说是一场永不停止的马拉松。　　不过，在“决赛”阶段或将迎来分级、分类。何小鹏认为，汽车行业在硬件时代，一、二、三阵营都能找到足够的存活点，但在“硬件+软件”时代，互联网行业的一些效应会凸显，第二阵营与第一阵营的差距会越来越大。（文章来源：中国基金报）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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