华源证券：小游戏逐步实现中重度化及精品化成长建议关注腾讯控股等

研报虎12-19

从《飞机大战》开始，十年时间见证了小游戏从碎片消遣到中重度化及精品化的转型。《飞机大战》是早期的微信小游戏，此时手机开始普及，微信生态开始带动轻量级游戏的兴起。2022年，微信小游戏创意鼓励计划升级，商业化提效，大量优质小游戏出现，产品向精品化发展。2024年4月，点点互动旗下的SLG小游戏《无尽冬日》超越《寻道大千》，登顶微信小游戏畅销榜第一。据伽马数据，2024年中国小游戏市场总收入达...

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It is recommended to pay attention to Tencent Holdings and others","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"80700":0.9,"HTCD.SI":0.6,"00700":1.91,"TCHmain":0.6,"TCEHY":1.91},"content_text":"从《飞机大战》开始，十年时间见证了小游戏从碎片消遣到中重度化及精品化的转型。《飞机大战》是早期的微信小游戏，此时手机开始普及，微信生态开始带动轻量级游戏的兴起。2022年，微信小游戏创意鼓励计划升级，商业化提效，大量优质小游戏出现，产品向精品化发展。2024年4月，点点互动旗下的SLG小游戏《无尽冬日》超越《寻道大千》，登顶微信小游戏畅销榜第一。据伽马数据，2024年中国小游戏市场总收入达398.36亿元，同比增长99.18%。据DataEye，预计2025年中国小游戏市场总收入将超过600亿元。生态繁荣下，游戏市场难得的增量空间。1)平台端/用户端：微信+小程序的流量红利。微信小程序作为微信流量重要的载体，2024年10月用户规模同比增长3%已达9.49亿，月活用户规模同比增量达到2784万。QuestMobile数据显示，2022至2024年的10月数据来看，微信小游戏连续成为抢占用户时长占比最高的应用类型。2024年10月，微信小游戏月活用户规模达到5.55亿，同比增长5.9%。2)渠道/变现模式：更灵活、更优质。微信已经推出一系列激励政策，微信小游戏在不同阶段可享不同额外激励，到手的收益预估在50%至100%以上不等。3)研发端：更快的周期和周转。目前厂商针对分端原生制作与H5版本兼容制作均有成熟的技术能力支持开发。即使是原生制作的小游戏，研发周期与成本至少能降低至手游APP的50%。此外，Unity为微信小游戏做了特殊的支持与优化，微信推出Unity WebGL小游戏适配(转换)方案，以降低Unity游戏转换到微信小游戏的开发成本。当前时点看趋势：把握生态的成熟放量。1)中重度化趋势有望强化用户粘性和ARPU。小游戏未来可能形成轻度化玩法为入口、重度化内容做留存的融合趋势。所谓“轻度化玩法”，是为了降低用户尝试门槛，所谓“重度化内容”，是通过养成体系等深度设计提升用户粘性。2)混合变现趋势或将加强。腾讯广告数据显示，2023年混变小游戏产品数和广告消耗增速超100%，2024年同比增速继续保持100%，IAP小游戏买量消耗中60%是混变小游戏。混变小游戏是2023年、2024年买量趋势中增速最快的赛道。3)小游戏出海是新的游戏输出形式。小游戏出海以低成本、短周期开发的轻度游戏为核心，聚焦H5游戏、小程序游戏等形式，用户获取依赖于流量平台，出海模式细分为H5游戏出海、小程序游戏出海及双端发行。小游戏海外生态逐步扩大，YouTube、TikTok、Discord等海外社交头部平台纷纷加速布局小游戏赛道，并逐步开启内购变现功能。投资分析意见。我们认为小游戏逐步实现了从碎片化消遣到中重度化及精品化的成长。日益繁荣的内容生态是游戏市场难得的增量空间。当前时点，我们建议把握生态的成熟放量。我们建议关注构建小游戏平台基础的【腾讯控股】，以及前瞻加强布局小游戏生态的游戏厂商，包括【世纪华通】、【三七互娱】、【吉比特】、【恺英网络】、【巨人网络】、【掌趣科技】、【星辉娱乐】等。风险提示。经营风险，行业政策变化风险，游戏流水不及预期风险。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2592937071","isCrawlerRequest":true}

华源证券：小游戏逐步实现中重度化及精品化成长 建议关注腾讯控股等

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华源证券：小游戏逐步实现中重度化及精品化成长建议关注腾讯控股等