美银展望2026，称AI热潮驱动半导体产业迈向万亿美元大关

中粉半导体2025-12-18

美国银行近期发布报告，对半导体产业的长期前景保持乐观，认为人工智能支出热潮仍有很长的发展期。该机构将英伟达 (NVDA)、博通 (AVGO) 与泛林集团 (LRCX) 列为其2026年最值得持有的半导体股票之一，并强调行业领导者将在波动中彰显韧性。AI竞赛步入中期，增长动力依然强劲美国银行分析师指出，人工智能竞赛目前仍处于“早期到中期阶段”。尽管市场对AI投资回报和超大规模云服务商现金流的审查可能...

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mark","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDX":0.6,"SOXX":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVDA":1.95,"SMH":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"LRCX":1.87,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDD":0.6},"content_text":"美国银行近期发布报告，对半导体产业的长期前景保持乐观，认为人工智能支出热潮仍有很长的发展期。该机构将英伟达 (NVDA)、博通 (AVGO) 与泛林集团 (LRCX) 列为其2026年最值得持有的半导体股票之一，并强调行业领导者将在波动中彰显韧性。AI竞赛步入中期，增长动力依然强劲美国银行分析师指出，人工智能竞赛目前仍处于“早期到中期阶段”。尽管市场对AI投资回报和超大规模云服务商现金流的审查可能加剧股价波动，但这一影响将被不断更新的AI模型开发者以及服务于企业和主权客户的“AI工厂”需求所抵消。分析师预测，在数据中心高利用率、供应紧张、企业加速采用以及大型语言模型开发商、云巨头和主权客户之间竞争的推动下，2026年AI半导体销售额有望再次实现50%或更高的同比增长。行业龙头英伟达被视为关键受益者，其未来拥有包括消费电子展和GTC大会在内的一系列催化剂。构建全面投资组合，覆盖产业链关键环节除了上述三家公司，美国银行还构建了更广泛的核心持股名单，旨在全面把握AI产业链的需求。在大盘股中，该机构青睐科磊 (KLAC)、亚德诺半导体 (ADI) 和楷登电子 (CDNS)，认为它们具备高品质与产业领导地位，能覆盖先进制造、模拟芯片及芯片设计软件等关键领域。在中小型股中，Credo Technology (CRDO)、MKS (MKSI) 等公司也受到关注。报告特别指出，博通因其在客制化AI芯片领域的布局而受到青睐，而半导体设备支出则将在高频宽存储器、先进逻辑制程与先进封装升级需求的驱动下持续成长。选择性布局与新兴主题对于模拟芯片领域，美国银行建议投资者“保持选择性”，理由是对行业全面好转持谨慎态度，并指出了宏观环境平淡、汽车产量下降及竞争加剧等挑战。展望2026年，报告还揭示了共封装光学、机器人技术和量子计算等新兴主题。其中，Lumentum (LITE) 和Coherent (COHR) 被视为共封装光学领域的领导者。量子计算则被定位为一个具有长期潜力的新兴机会。迈向万亿美元里程碑的产业征程美国银行预测，2026年将是传统IT基础设施升级为适应加速计算与AI工作负载的8至10年历程的“中间点”。在此背景下，全球半导体销售额有望朝着首个1万亿美元里程碑迈进，实现约30%的增长，晶圆制造设备销售额也将实现近两位数的同比增长。这一乐观展望为投资者勾勒出在AI长期浪潮中，半导体产业持续扩张的清晰图景。（来源：公众号 NA1500）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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