贵金属大涨，多家机构提醒超买！明年更看好这一品种

券商中国12-18

18日期货市场上，白银、铂金、钯等贵金属成为市场上涨主力军。临近年底，全球各大机构纷纷发布对明年展望。在明年美元或进一步走弱的宏观背景下，多家机构对于明年贵金属走势预期明显分化。其中，对于今年涨幅超65%的黄金，多家机构仍然看好明年表现，但是对于白银、铂金等今年涨幅超过一倍的品种，警告超买的提醒声音渐多。由于近期持续上涨，12月18日晚广期所公告，将多个多晶硅期货相关合约交易指令每次最小开仓下单...

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More optimistic about this variety next year","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"06693":0.9,"02899":0.9,"01787":0.9},"content_text":"18日期货市场上，白银、铂金、钯等贵金属成为市场上涨主力军。临近年底，全球各大机构纷纷发布对明年展望。在明年美元或进一步走弱的宏观背景下，多家机构对于明年贵金属走势预期明显分化。其中，对于今年涨幅超65%的黄金，多家机构仍然看好明年表现，但是对于白银、铂金等今年涨幅超过一倍的品种，警告超买的提醒声音渐多。由于近期持续上涨，12月18日晚广期所公告，将多个多晶硅期货相关合约交易指令每次最小开仓下单数量由1手调整为5手，每次最小平仓下单数量维持1手。广期所还对铂、钯期货相关合约实施交易限额，合约单日开仓量不得超过500手。贵金属仍是今年王者12月18日，商品期货收盘，贵金属市场仍然上涨主力，其中钯主力合约涨停，铂主力合约涨超5%，沪银涨超3%。市场对于贵金属的热情始终高昂，贵金属价格涨幅更是“一马当先”。今年年初至今，黄金价格上涨超65%，白银价格涨幅更是突破126%，铂金价格涨幅超过116%，钯金价格涨幅95%。明年贵金属价格还有上涨空间吗？加拿大蒙特利尔银行资本市场部（BMO Capital Markets）预计，2026年黄金的上涨趋势将持续。尽管黄金和白银当前价格已处于或接近历史高位，但仍然存在上涨空间，并且在各类贵金属中更偏好黄金。在BMO2026年大宗商品展望报告中预计，黄金将在明年上半年触及全年高点，上半年黄金均价将达到每盎司4600美元。而2026年全年黄金均价为每盎司4550美元。但是，对白银的展望则更为复杂。BMO预计，2026年第四季度白银均价将达到每盎司60美元左右，这也将是全年高点。全年来看，BMO预测白银均价为每盎司56.30美元。白银目前交易价格已超过每盎司65美元。BMO警告白银和铂金存在超买倾向，2026年白银和铂金的上涨空间均不及黄金。对于白银上涨原因，BMO认为白银的强劲需求主要归因于两大因素：一是“货币贬值交易”逻辑，即投资者转向黄金等有形资产避险；二是自白银被美国列为“关键矿产”以来，美国市场的囤积行为有所增加。在市场供应紧张阶段，白银的表现可能与黄金趋同，甚至在上涨行情中出现更猛烈的飙升。白银不看好了？相对于BMO对于黄金的偏爱，国际投行摩根士丹利公司则预测金价在2026年涨幅将出现放缓，虽然美联储减息预期及美元下跌将为金价提供持续上升动力，但是受央行及(ETF)减少购买影响，金价涨幅可能放缓。摩根士丹利预测，金价明年第四季见每盎司4800美元。而白银价格明年跑输金价，认为银供应短缺已在今年见顶。而铂金及钯金价格，在2026年将达到每盎司价格分别为1775美元及1325美元。值得注意的是，当前，铂金期货主力合约价格在每盎司1970美元附近，钯金期货主力合约价格在每盎司1770美元。这可能意味着，摩根士丹利对于明年贵金属市场，除了黄金，其他品种都不太看好。值得注意的是，全球市场白银交易热情高涨，美国白银总合约期货交易量在12月17日已飙超15.8万手的历史高位，而国内资本市场上，国投白银LOF（161226）自11月24日以来，在17个交易日里有15个交易日实现上涨，累计涨幅超过70%。该基金产品年内涨幅超170%。国投瑞银基金12月份已经发布了8份溢价风险提示公告。目前，白银的价值现已超过原油，这是四十多年来未曾出现过的景象，这种价值的转变可能反映了白银作为工业和投资资产的重要性日益增加，市场人士将银价的上涨形容为“打了兴奋剂的黄金”，此轮上涨也是在多年表现不佳后的补涨。美元或进一步走弱美联储在明年进一步降息已经成为各界共识。美联储在上周降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率下调至3.5%—3.75%，且美联储表态偏向鸽派。不过，美国总统特朗普仍然吐槽降息幅度“过小”，称“美国的利率就该是全球最低的”。特朗普此前曾声称，美国利率应为“1%，甚至可能更低”。在当地时间17日，特朗普对全国发表电视讲话时表示，下一任美联储主席提名人选即将揭晓，且这名候选人会支持“大幅”降低利率。特朗普表示：“我即将宣布我们的下一任美联储主席。这个人支持大幅降低利率，抵押还款会进一步下降。”在市场参与者看来，若特朗普选择一位“听话”的美联储主席，并对其激进降息的立场提供支持，将对美联储引以为傲的独立性造成损害，而这也将推动美元进一步走弱，市场对于非美元资产的对冲需求将进一步提升。巴克莱银行预测明年美联储将降息两次，分别在3月及6月发生，与美联储鸽派论调相符。但是美联储重启买债，未来数月将每月买债规模400亿美元，以维持资产负债表充裕及有效控制联邦基金利率。责编：杨喻程","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2592900985","isCrawlerRequest":true}