海外及传媒年度策略：算力飞轮、多极模型生态与Agent化生产力

华安证券12-17

（以下内容从华安证券《海外及传媒年度策略：算力飞轮、多极模型生态与Agent化生产力》研报附件原文摘录）主要观点：生成式AI：从单一算力飞轮，到多极大模型生态与全栈Agent化1）算力与大模型：从“单一供应商”走向“多架构+多家头部”从2024到2025年，算力体系从“单一GPU体系”转向多架构并行，我们预计到2026年这种趋势将持续：一方面，NVIDIA通过Blackwell/Rubin、...

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Ethernet、UALink等开放互联标准构建多元生态。大模型格局呈多极化：OpenAI、Gemini、Anthropic在多模态、长上下文、Agent工作流等方向保持领先探索优势；DeepSeek、Qwen、kimi、豆包、文心等在成本、开源、本地化与行业定制上形成差异化竞争。企业侧开始根据“算力成本+模型能力+数据资产”进行组合采购与多云部署。相关公司：英伟达、博通、TSMC、谷歌、微软、亚马逊、阿里巴巴-W、百度集团-SW、腾讯控股、寒武纪、海光信息等。2）AI服务器互联：从板级互连迈向机架级光互联与可重构网络互联架构从“板内PCIe+铜缆”迈向整仓级光互联：NVIDIA通过NVLink/NVSwitch将单柜72卡GPU构建为高度耦合、在编程与调度层面近似“逻辑大GPU”的计算单元，并在中长期路线中逐步探索硅光与CPO。超大规模云厂商加速采用Ultra Ethernet、UALink、CXL3.0+SuperNIC等方案，分别解决Scale-out、Scale-up、内存及IO解构等不同瓶颈。光电分工重塑：光承担中长距承载与拓扑重构，电聚焦近距互连与协议处理。谷歌将OCS封装为高性能网络服务。800G为主流速率，1.6T有望在2026年加速渗透。液冷渗透率预计也将提速。相关公司：Lumentum、Coherent、迈威尔、Astera Labs、博通等。3）存储：HBM+GDDR+DRAM+NAND+CXL共同推动“AI存储超级周期”AI服务器迈向“算力+存力+带宽”架构，带动全品类存储进入高景气周期。1）HBM：12-Hi HBM3e成为Blackwell主力；HBM4有望在2026年后引入16-Hi堆叠；2）GDDR7&LPDDR6：推理GPU、AI工作站及端侧设备进入带宽升级周期；3）DDR5&CXL：服务器迁移至DDR5、单机容量提升；CXL商用打破CPU通道限制；4）NAND/QLC eSSD：向量数据库与多模态训练数据湖对读取速度和密度的极致追求，QLC企业级SSD加速替代近线HDD，支撑NAND量价稳健增长。相关公司：SK海力士、美光科技、闪迪、西部数据等。Agentforce+Data360ARR接近14亿美元，Agentforce单独ARR超5亿美元，同比增长超300%。AI Agent从试用转入“订阅+席位扩容”阶段。数据云和安全基础设施已经体现收入贡献。Snowflake FY26Q3产品收入11.6亿美元，同比增长29%，Agentic AI上线首月吸引1,200家客户试用。Datadog通过LLM Observability、Agent监控与BitsAI成为企业运行大模型/Agent的“安全网”，驱动ARPU提升。相关公司：Salesforce、ServiceNow、Intuit、SAP、Shopify、Snowflake、Datadog、金蝶国际、税友股份、鼎捷数智、微盟集团、第四范式、用友网络。6）应用层：广告、游戏、自动化全面进入AI重构阶段Meta Advantage+、Google Ads生成式创意与AppLovin Axon2.x重塑广告投放流程；AI大幅降低游戏与内容制作成本；AI Agent已开始在客服、销售、风控等工作流中实现从辅助到自动执行。同时，生成式AI和端侧模型能力的快速提升，正推动智能终端从“硬件堆料”向“AI原生入口”演进。相关公司：Meta、Google、Applovin、哔哩哔哩-W、Symbotic等。游戏：产品周期推动营收增长，投流成本降低推动利润增长，AI赋能持续探索2025年，游戏行业焕发新生，前三季度游戏公司收入流水表现亮眼。收入端各主要厂商均有代表产品拉动业绩增长，例如腾讯的《三角洲行动》、网易的《第五人格》和《永劫无间》、巨人网络的《超自然行动组》、吉比特的《仗剑传说》等。利润侧，游戏板块费用管控效果显著，新游上线并未大幅拉动销售费用的增长。2026年产品储备依然充分，AI在制作、营销、玩法等多个环节有望持续赋能。相关公司：腾讯控股、网易-S、恺英网络、三七互娱、巨人网络、吉比特等。影视：2026年pipeline较为充足，AI赋能创作，行业向IP化演进一方面，部分影视公司已储备较为充足的2026年影片pipeline，涵2/110盖商业大片、系列化作品及多元题材，内容供给的确定性和可持续性增强；另一方面，在技术层面，图片及视频生成模型持续成熟，AI正逐步渗透至概念设计、分镜制作、特效生成与后期剪辑等核心环节，AI漫剧在降低制作成本、缩短生产周期的角度已经有所验证；此外，从商业模式看，影视内容正加速向IP化、系列化与生态化演进，部分核心IP已逐步实现跨电影、剧集、动画、衍生品及线下场景的多元商业化，其长期变现能力开始显性化。建议重点关注具备稳定项目输出能力、积极拥抱AI技术并拥有优质IP储备的头部影视公司。相关公司：光线传媒、中国电影、上海电影、万达电影等。出版：刚需属性、低PE叠加股息率从估值维度看，板块整体PE处于历史低位，叠加教材教辅业务的刚需属性，构筑了一定的安全垫；从回报维度看，出版企业账期较好且资本开支极低，普遍具备长期维持稳定的股息率的能力。相关公司：皖新传媒、南方传媒、中文传媒、凤凰传媒等。风险提示行业竞争加剧；全球宏观经济扰动风险；美联储降息不确定性；大模型进展不及预期；AI应用进展不及预期；AI硬件发展不及预期；知识产权风险；产品上线进展不及预期；相关政策风险等。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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