美银：12月亚太基金经理调查：日本成最大赢家，中国待政策落地

信息量有点大2025-12-17

核心结论：参与美银12月亚太基金经理调查的 238 位机构投资者（管理 5500 亿美元资产）显示，全球增长预期升至四年高点，亚太地区维持近一年高位，但通胀预期低迷为央行宽松留足空间。市场情绪整体积极但回报预期趋缓，日本连续成为最受青睐市场，中国持仓降至低配，印度逆势回升至温和超配；行业与主题方面，半导体、AI、反内卷及韩国企业价值提升计划主导配置，投资者聚焦盈利反弹与政策催化机会。一、全球与亚太...

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亿美元资产）显示，全球增长预期升至四年高点，亚太地区维持近一年高位，但通胀预期低迷为央行宽松留足空间。市场情绪整体积极但回报预期趋缓，日本连续成为最受青睐市场，中国持仓降至低配，印度逆势回升至温和超配；行业与主题方面，半导体、AI、反内卷及韩国企业价值提升计划主导配置，投资者聚焦盈利反弹与政策催化机会。一、全球与亚太宏观预期：增长乐观，通胀温和全球增长预期持续走强，12 月净预期值升至四年高点，亚太（除日本）经济前景维持近一年高位，日本增长预期更是创下调查以来峰值。通胀预期仍处于历史低位（第 22 百分位），亚太（除日本）净 7% 的投资者预计未来 12 个月通胀上升，低迷的通胀压力为区域央行维持宽松倾向提供了空间。企业盈利预期持续改善，净 41% 的投资者预计亚太（除日本）企业盈利将走强，为 2024 年 10 月以来最高；且仅 10% 的投资者认为当前共识盈利预期过高，未来仍有上修空间。不过，受年初至今市场大幅上涨影响，区域股市估值高于长期均值，投资者对亚太（除日本）未来 12 个月回报预期回落至长期平均水平，超半数投资者预计回报在 0%-10% 区间。全球与亚太增长预期走势亚太通胀预期走势亚太企业盈利预期走势二、市场偏好：日本领跑，中国低配，印度逆袭1. 日本：压倒性热门，银行与半导体成首选日本连续多月稳居亚太最受青睐市场，净 41% 的投资者超配日本股市，远超第二名中国台湾（净 21%）。投资者对高市政策影响仍持积极态度，45% 认为其增长导向议程仅部分反映在股价中，短期回调被视为健康盘整。随着长期利率稳步上行，银行股（48% 投资者超配）与半导体股（52% 投资者超配）成为首选，前者受益于息差扩大，后者贴合 AI 主题；盈利改善、公司治理改革及日本央行政策正常化是支撑日本股市的三大核心因素。尽管自 4 月低点已上涨约 50%，但投资者对日本股市未来 12 个月回报预期仍接近长期平均，多数预计涨幅在 5%-10%。亚太市场超配比例排名日本超配行业分布高市政策影响观点2. 中国：增长预期企稳，等待政策落地信号中国经济增长预期在反弹后趋于稳定，12 月净 3% 的投资者预计中国经济走强，较上月（净 29% 看弱）显著改善；长期结构性看空情绪缓解，仅 45% 的投资者认为中国股市处于结构性去估值过程，接近三年低点。货币政策方面，仍有 83% 的投资者预计未来 12 个月中国将维持宽松，但较年内高点有所回落，反映消费与企业信心从低位缓慢修复。持仓方面，中国股市配置降至净 -14% 低配，29% 的投资者选择等待更可信的宽松信号再增持，21% 转向其他市场寻找机会；家庭风险偏好减弱是关键制约，54% 的投资者认为中国家庭将优先把储蓄存入银行，仅 29% 倾向于购买股票、债券等资产。投资主题上，AI / 半导体（66%）、互联网（21%）、反内卷（21%）仍是核心，绿色经济、周期股热度下滑。中国增长预期走势中国家庭储蓄偏好中国热门投资主题分布3. 其他市场：印度逆势回升，台韩受益半导体周期印度股市从 8 月的垫底位置逐步回升，12 月净 10% 的投资者超配，成为对冲 AI 驱动市场的多元化选择。中国台湾（净 21% 超配）与韩国（净中性）同样获得青睐，核心支撑来自半导体周期预期走强 —— 净 55% 的投资者预计未来 12 个月韩台半导体出口增长改善，为 2024 年 7 月以来最高。此外，投资者对韩国企业价值提升计划信心回升，60% 认为将产生积极影响，大选后政策落地预期增强。半导体周期预期走势韩国企业价值提升计划观点三、行业与主题配置：科技领衔，周期与地产遇冷1. 行业偏好：半导体与科技硬件领跑亚太（除日本）行业配置呈现明显分化：科技硬件（净 45% 超配）、半导体（净 41% 超配）、软件（净 21% 超配）位居前三，工业与电信（均为净 10% 超配）紧随其后；而房地产、能源（均为净 - 28% 低配）、原材料（净 - 21% 低配）成为最不受青睐的行业，反映投资者对周期类资产与地产相关板块的谨慎态度。亚太行业超配比例排名2. 核心主题：AI 与政策催化为主线除了半导体与 AI 的强趋势，反内卷、韩国企业价值提升计划、股票回购 / 股息等主题同样获得投资者关注。这些主题的共性在于贴合结构性增长（AI）、政策支持（反内卷、企业价值提升）与现金流确定性（回购 / 股息），契合当前 “盈利反弹 + 估值约束” 的市场环境。四、调查核心数据与投资者画像参与本次区域调查的 119 位投资者管理 2930 亿美元资产，其中投资组合经理占比 62%，区域 + 全球视角专家占比 70%；投资期限方面，12 个月以上长期视角占比 38%，3 个月以内短期视角占比 28%；资产规模上，管理 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